SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 That's a big move, first one I've seen from the Gfs in a while. Will be interesting to see if the Ukie holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Major cave to ukmet 18z GFS had the city surface temp at mid 50's, this run doesn't go above 36-38. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 CMC is also south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: Honestly it’s not too far from getting squashed south...with the cold/highs/50-50 low present We want it another 100 Miles south and you would have a benchmark track verbatim a snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 That's what we like to see. It's night-and-day compared to 18z regarding interaction with the PV lobe... completely different evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Cmc looks a lot better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Sn0waddict said: CMC is also south Low is off the NJ coast vs over CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Wow the Gfs is a classic flash freeze scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Can you dm it or post it gfs colder n south so far someone posted it in another thread----Pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Wow the Gfs is a classic flash freeze scenario. Good thing it's on a Sunday, that would be a hell of a commute on a weekday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If I can go find the guys post with Deep Thunder can I share it here or is that a problem ? just trying to play by the rules if there are any , any reason that model can't be posted ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, David-LI said: Good thing it's on a Sunday, that would be a hell of a commute on a weekday. Not entirely true this could still cause big problems for Monday AM commute with temps falling that rapidly on Sunday and Monday being 20 degrees at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: someone posted it in another thread----Pittsburgh Ty deep thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, allgame830 said: Not entirely true this could still cause big problems for Monday AM commute with temps falling that rapidly on Sunday and Monday being 20 degrees at best... It’s holiday should be a bit less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Ty deep thunder lol I was just going to post it-----it does appear to look good for the good guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If the models are correct with that 500mb depiction then we'll see further south shifts. Those March 2014 storms shifted substantially further south as we got closer just from the PV confluence. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: If the models are correct with that 500mb depiction then we'll see further south shifts. Hail to the Queen. Talk about a shift. About as dramatic a one run shift as can be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If the models are correct with that 500mb depiction then we'll see further south shifts. Yeah. Pretty epic look. But will hold on for UK before I get giddy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah. Pretty epic look. But will hold on for UK before I get giddy. Ukie is very similar to 12z, looks like the city doesn't get above freezing at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Anyone got GFS soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Gravity Wave said: Ukie is very similar to 12z, looks like the city doesn't get above freezing at the surface. How similar? 12z was a dream scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Didn't Upton throw in the towel this afternoon? Somebody may have some splaining to do as Ricky Ricardo would say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Didn't Upton throw in the towel this afternoon? Somebody may have some splaining to do as Ricky Ricardo would say. Oh I've seen them mess up before in either direction. Not saying they're wrong, but wouldn't be first time if they are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This is why people shouldn't live and die with every model run so far out, the system isn't even on shore yet. Now watch the Ukie cave to the 12z GFS and towels will be thrown in again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, David-LI said: Oh I've seen them mess up before in either direction. Not saying they're wrong, but wouldn't be first time if they are. Being wrong is one thing but for the NWS to basically be so definitive about something that is 4-5 days out is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, kat5hurricane said: This is why people shouldn't live and die with every model run so far out, the system isn't even on shore yet. Now watch the Ukie cave to the 12z GFS and towels will be thrown in again. But it didn't. I get your reasoning but the negativity with this system was 2 days of run after run of cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Any news on the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Being wrong is one thing but for the NWS to basically be so definitive about something that is 4-5 days out is unusual. Their discussion might be but their forecast is not Saturday Night Snow before midnight, then rain, snow, and sleet between midnight and 3am, then rain and sleet after 3am. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Rain before 9am, then snow. High near 40. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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