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cyclone77

Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

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13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Guess I'll see if the hot hand keeps working.  Multiple medium-range guidance shows a fairly decent storm system Friday night through Saturday.  Hopefully it's another spread-the-wealth type system a little further north.

:snowing:

 Had to fix your original post lol. Seriously though, it's hard to ignore such a strong and persistent storm signal, even though it is still 5 to 6 days out. And there is a lot of cold behind the storm, so all be interesting to see what ends up happening. As long as I have snow on the ground by Saturday evening I will be fine.

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13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Guess I'll see if the hot hand keeps working.  Multiple medium-range guidance shows a fairly decent storm system Friday night through Saturday.  Hopefully it's another spread-the-wealth type system.

:snowing:

It’s like riding the hot guy at the craps table. Keep rolling! 

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22 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Guess I'll see if the hot hand keeps working.  Multiple medium-range guidance shows a fairly decent storm system Friday night through Saturday.  Hopefully it's another spread-the-wealth type system.

:snowing:

Keep it going! 

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This one is going to be a nail biter. Lol. This system definitely looks to be more wound up and amped which could allow a more northerly track. However, with this deep snow pack in place, I wonder how much impact that baroclinic zone from the snow will have on the storm track

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gfs and ggem are worlds apart.  Just looking at hour 150, ggem is cranking a low in northern Oklahoma with a neutral trough trying to go neg while the gfs has a weak low in eastern OH.  Much more progressive.   

Best guess on this one is it favors areas north of this previous snowfall.    There's also another strong signal for one around hour 240 which would be 3 or 4 days later....lots to be sorted out...then throw in the wildcard with that brutal cold staged just north of us and if nothing else, things should be far from zzzzzz for the sub.

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Mentioned it in the other thread but I have been feeling pretty good about this one.  

Some blizzard/ground blizzard potential if something resembling the latest runs verifies.  

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

gfs and ggem are worlds apart.  Just looking at hour 150, ggem is cranking a low in northern Oklahoma with a neutral trough trying to go neg while the gfs has a weak low in eastern OH.  Much more progressive.   

Best guess on this one is it favors areas north of this previous snowfall.    There's also another strong signal for one around hour 240 which would be 3 or 4 days later....lots to be sorted out...then throw in the wildcard with that brutal cold staged just north of us and if nothing else, things should be far from zzzzzz for the sub.

GFS has a progressive bias, I’m more inclined to believe the GGEM is closer to the right idea.

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The GFS and Ukie are the way to go. I'd toss the GEM as it doesn't handle shortwaves diving into western US very well plus cutting into a large snow pack is pretty unusual though not unheard of.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The GFS and Ukie are the way to go. I'd toss the GEM as it doesn't handle shortwaves diving into western US very well plus cutting into a large snow pack is pretty unusual though not unheard of.

Not directing this at you, but the snowpack argument is overused, imo.  If you suddenly lay down an expansive snowpack just in advance of another system, then I think that situation would be more likely to affect the model output.  In this case, the snowpack will have been around for almost a week, will be gradually eroding and should be relatively well accounted for by the models.  

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not directing this at you, but the snowpack argument is overused, imo.  If you suddenly lay down an expansive snowpack just in advance of another system, then I think that situation would be more likely to affect the model output.  In this case, the snowpack will have been around for almost a week, will be gradually eroding and should be relatively well accounted for by the models.  

The premise behind it is that it stunts the progression of the baroclinic zone northward initially before the LLJ kicks in. Sure with a strong enough system it won't matter but this is more of a W-E sliding system that will actually be running into some confluence in the east so actually I'd be more worried about a shift south vs anything right now.

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Do I dare say the B word is possible with this? ;) def a very tight pressure gradient with incoming arctic high. This one looks to be followed by quite a cold blast to. And you make a good point about the snow pack being in the models a week. Didn't think of that. I know it is an overused concept. Just thought this one is a pretty large scale deep snow pack though

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Do I dare say the B word is possible with this? ;) def a very tight pressure gradient with incoming arctic high. This one looks to be followed by quite a cold blast to. And you make a good point about the snow pack being in the models a week. Didn't think of that. I know it is an overused concept. Just thought this one is a pretty large scale deep snow pack though

100% there is blizzard potential with this one. The pressure gradient is very stout with this system.

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I've countless times seen storms cut through a snowpack here so not sure how much effect snow pack down to the South will have, especially since the northern and Southern edges of it will probably have mostly eroded by then and there is no snowpack to the North of that swath. Regardless a fun storm looks to be shaping up. We are undoubtedly in for a week of models being all over the place however it's pretty unanimous that a storm will be hitting so I can't see it disappearing. To the experts out there, are there any threats of this thing being shredded apart, or is it pretty much a give that a good storm will be taking shape?

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The Euro kind of epitomizes what I think could happen with respect to a miss or low end hit locally. The baroclinic zone remains further south and the low rides it east along the river.

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28 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The Euro kind of epitomizes what I think could happen with respect to a miss or low end hit locally. The baroclinic zone remains further south and the low rides it east along the river.

I agree, I think suppression is a big concern with next weekend.  For points N with the first wave and then points south with the second.  Those are some pretty strong ridges coming back to back down out of Canada.

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31 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The Euro kind of epitomizes what I think could happen with respect to a miss or low end hit locally. The baroclinic zone remains further south and the low rides it east along the river.

Euro needs to eat it's Wheaties and bulk-up, lol.  The snowcover baro-zone effect really plays out later in winter when/if you have a long-standing glacier that is a very cold snowpack, not one recently laid down on recently warm ground. Jan 17 SOHV bliz laid down a massive swath of even deeper snow and it didn't stop the following week's storm from raining up into SEMI.

What this can do imho (current snow cover) is keep WAA from getting out of hand if we indeed see a stronger storm being advertised by most guidance.

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Just now, Jackstraw said:

I agree, I think suppression is a big concern with next weekend.  For points N with the first wave and then points south with the second.  Those are some pretty strong ridges coming back to back down out of Canada.

My thought though is that the Euro is more amplified than anything and that also works in the direction of stronger highs too. Also the euro was the furthest south with the storm that just occurred only to come north as the storm closed in, so do have that going against the suppressed Euro solution.

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I agree, I think suppression is a big concern with next weekend.  For points N with the first wave and then points south with the second.  Those are some pretty strong ridges coming back to back down out of Canada.

SLP gets up to at least I-70. That's my call and I'm sticking to it.

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49 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The Euro kind of epitomizes what I think could happen with respect to a miss or low end hit locally. The baroclinic zone remains further south and the low rides it east along the river.

 This is more due to the wave crossing the Rockies/lee side cyclogenesis further south and remaining positively tilted, rather than swinging out to neutral/negative and allowing the low to cut. 

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

The premise behind it is that it stunts the progression of the baroclinic zone northward initially before the LLJ kicks in. Sure with a strong enough system it won't matter but this is more of a W-E sliding system that will actually be running into some confluence in the east so actually I'd be more worried about a shift south vs anything right now.

I'd be far more concerned about something like that affecting the track than the snowpack.

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