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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Sorry, I see you meant that little wave out ahead of the main show. Could have some impact tho

We were discussing earlier. It’s impact as a stronger system would lead to less amplified heights for the main show, favoring a southern solution.

There are other factors in play though, we’ll see.

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29 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Don't shame me too hard for posting this, but found this little gem off Weather.com for my locale. 

Have yet to see anything over a half inch this season. If it completely covers the grass, I'll be a satisfied man! (Real low standards this year)


image.png.9983760405d5e66f7b4613f1c79c8740.png

 We saw several 1-1.5" events in November but since then just a few dustings. Im sure you went over a half inch in Nov a few times vut i get what youre saying. Standards far lower than usual this winter!

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15 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Reminder we're still 5 to 6 days out and to not get too disappointed or overexcited at this point 

This. 

 

It’s not a matter of “it can change in the coming days”.. but more certainly it “will change in the coming days”. Too much up in the air at this point. Personally feel the potential is there but would have to have a lot to come together to get a blockbuster - at least on the northern fringe of the potential track and with this particular system (many more on the horizon after this). Can’t really make a solid call on anything yet but my best guess would be I-70 to I-80 should be on the lookout for several inches and I-64 to I-94 could be in play depending on the track. Feel as if it will be more suppressed to the south (as the GFS and EURO have been depicting). Again, at this point - anything is possible.

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46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 We saw several 1-1.5" events in November but since then just a few dustings. Im sure you went over a half inch in Nov a few times vut i get what youre saying. Standards far lower than usual this winter!

Those several 1-1.5" snow events favored areas to the east and north of my backyard, I distinctly remember seeing that on radar. There was one event where we got an inch, sure, but fussing over a half inch just really hits home how bad this winter has been locally, lol.

EDIT: Meant for my original post to say much more than half an inch. 

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Here's the IL zoom map for the 00z UKMET qpf.037d1c4bbfea4d4b5984b244efbc5fcd.jpg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Looking at the last precip panel at 144 hours, it looks like the storm is still going around Chicago and probably even west of there too.  My gosh.  

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UKMET gives the southern stream wave a lot more room to breathe with PV lobe much less suppressive. Main wave goes negative tilt and closes off at h5, resulting in STL to IND surface low track. Great example of the caution needed for this scenario this far out and that pretty much all options still on the table. Also a great example of the ceiling of this setup if everything comes together right, though that surface low track would not be good the farther south and east you get.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

UKMET gives the southern stream wave a lot more room to breathe with PV lobe much less suppressive

I was just going to post that.  The UK doesn't appear to have that PV lobe crashing southeast through the lakes on Saturday.  Iowa needs that lobe to back off as much as possible.  Otherwise, that nice energy moving in from the plains is going to dive southeast and leave us with only modest snow from an initial lobe of energy that shoots out of NE/SD.  Tonight's UK actually has that initial lobe of snow passing through southern MN.

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