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cyclone77

Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

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Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Track fluctuations this far out are super expected, liking the massive amped look though 

Agreed. This could be one meaty storm...

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The Thursday piece was much stronger which lowered heights ahead of the weekend system, that is why it tracked further south while being stronger.

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Just now, Stebo said:

The Thursday piece was much stronger which lowered heights ahead of the weekend system, that is why it tracked further south while being stronger.

Was just about to say.

Nevertheless this storm looks incredible for the entire eastern half of the country.

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The GFS has been slowing the main energy in recent runs, trending toward the euro.  If the main energy is not quick enough to sneak underneath the Hudson Bay gyre(previous gfs runs showed this), it'll tend to be suppressed more, like the euro.

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS has been slowing the main energy in recent runs, trending toward the euro.  If the main energy is not quick enough to sneak underneath the Hudson Bay gyre(previous gfs runs showed this), it'll tend to be suppressed more, like the euro.

That gyre is there no matter what even if it was faster. The key is the initial piece. It needs to be as weak as possible otherwise this is another suppression job because the heights won't be able to rise quickly enough behind it.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That gyre is there no matter what even if it was faster. The key is the initial piece. It needs to be as weak as possible otherwise this is another suppression job because the heights won't be able to rise quickly enough behind it.

Initial piece as in the preliminary Thursday event right?

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You are right about that lead piece of energy and its strength having an influence on the main storm.  However, also check out the GFS 500 trend to see the main energy going from tucked under the Hudson Bay gyre to holding farther west and able to be suppressed by that lobe crashing down from the nw on Saturday.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh144_trend.thumb.gif.d1d76d32a74061be640ba1c8299fa043.gif

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That gyre is there no matter what even if it was faster. The key is the initial piece. It needs to be as weak as possible otherwise this is another suppression job because the heights won't be able to rise quickly enough behind it.

The initial piece can be strong, but the models track is to flat, which confuses them. Heights need to pump in that regard. The 18z's sin there is evident.

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Just now, Angrysummons said:

The initial piece can be strong, but the models track is to flat, which confuses them. Heights need to pump in that regard. The 18z's sin there is evident.

What?

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Hawkeye and Stebo's posts show the players on the field that will need to be sorted out.  I think the idea of the slower it is, the more likely it means a southern track has some merit.  The way to get a more northern track with a slower system would be if the confluence is weaker than currently progged. 

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hawkeye and Stebo's posts show the players on the field that will need to be sorted out.  I think the idea of the slower it is, the more likely it means a southern track has some merit.  The way to get a more northern track with a slower system would be if the confluence is weaker than currently progged. 

Which is where that initial piece needs to be weaker, a stronger piece would promote more confluence.

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

We actually got more snow in November, lol...although the big dog whiffed to the south which appears in retrospect to have been the start of a trend.

Lol true. Story of the last 2 years. Only get snow at the very beginning and end of winter.

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6 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Lol true. Story of the last 2 years. Only get snow at the very beginning and end of winter.

The challenge has been insurmountable to get that one cutter to Dayton Ohio.  We know the most likely outcome of this one already.

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There's at least 24 hours of pure lake effect (not including lake enhancement) targeting the IL/WI shoreline area on this run.  Nothing is guaranteed in weather but I'd almost lock in the idea of several inches in the Chicago-Milwaukee corridor even this far out.  There would have to be a massive breakdown in the synoptic setup to not only take the system out of reach, but the LES too.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There's at least 24 hours of pure lake effect (not including lake enhancement) targeting the IL/WI shoreline area on this run.  Nothing is guaranteed in weather but I'd almost lock in the idea of several inches in the Chicago-Milwaukee corridor even this far out.  There would have to be a massive breakdown in the synoptic setup to not only take the system out of reach, but the LES too.

The models could erase the system in its entirety and it'd still be hard to be pessimistic with such kinds words :)

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Cyclone has the hot hand, let’s keep this going. Anyway, does not appear much melting will occur throughout the week prior to this storm. 1/5/14 popping up on CIPS analog yet? 

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There's at least 24 hours of pure lake effect (not including lake enhancement) targeting the IL/WI shoreline area on this run.  Nothing is guaranteed in weather but I'd almost lock in the idea of several inches in the Chicago-Milwaukee corridor even this far out.  There would have to be a massive breakdown in the synoptic setup to not only take the system out of reach, but the LES too.

I have a good feeling about this one, which is rare for me

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Most euro ensembles were better for the northern edge than the op euro. Looks like the same with the 18z gefs now that gfs suppressed. Looks like a lot of waffling in the coming days. Im wondering what our northern and southern boundary possibilities are with this one.

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