• Member Statistics

    15,528
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NJRunner
    Newest Member
    NJRunner
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

Recommended Posts

Storm is continuing to trend north so I'm confident to let this out. (Northern area's may go higher later since ratios are much higher then southern areas) I think area wide masondixon south gets a WSW

Northern MD 5-8 

Baltimore metro 6-10

DC metro 6-10 (isolated 10+)

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PS... always good to watch reports out west.. reports of over a foot in missouri. The storm is packing a huge punch and is expansive. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, jayyy said:

PS... always good to watch reports out west.. reports of over a foot in missouri. The storm is packing a huge punch and is expansive. 

That gulf tap does so much 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios.

dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.  

  • Thanks 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, jayyy said:

And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios.

dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.  

You aren't wrong... I mean by the looks of current radar OBS, the precip shield is almost to northern Iowa.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios.

dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.  

Haha.. yeah!  I love it!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

PS... always good to watch reports out west.. reports of over a foot in missouri. The storm is packing a huge punch and is expansive. 

Its going to be a nice event here, but remember the vort is going to become increasingly stretched and gradually weaken is it moves east and encounters confluence. The local forecast offices seem to have a good handle on the high end potential with this. The coastal low is a bit of a wildcard but at this point it seems most of the area wont see much impact from that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its going to be a nice event here, but remember the vort is going to become increasingly stretched and gradually weaken is it moves east and encounters confluence. The local forecast offices seem to have a good handle on the high end potential with this. The coastal low is a bit of a wildcard but at this point it seems most of the area wont see much impact from that.

Not really going to need the coastal low to rack up good totals you can see the moisture transport pretty clear on radar and where the fetch runs into cold air its dumping snow. The vort has been continually looking better and better since 24 hours ago.  I see a over performer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Enjoy your inch! It’s gonna be a good one.


.

Happy New Year to you too! :wub:


.
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anything over 4" is a good storm in my book.  Always been my benchmark.  And anything over 6" is a big storm.  Don't know about the latter, but the former appears within reach.  Add in the cold temps and this could be a great event.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1.21 mean qpf at dca on the sref.  LOL

 

edit-the outliers are the few members that are low. Huge cluster around and inch

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Beachin said:

This is for Aberdeen Harford county. 
Look at the mean jump!!!!!

SREF.png

Forgive me if I'm reading that wrong, but is this calling for 8.5" in Aberdeen? That sounds crazier than the NAM.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One aspect of this storm that is still evolving is the Sunday eve/night timeframe.  Most models have a norlun type trough that develops as the coastal is moving ots....I'm not sure if it's actually a "norlun" that develops but it's def an extension of the trough.  Some develop this over the area...some models like it to the west of the area extending down into CVA...and some are weak or nothing.

The ICON shows how we can pad some numbers if this feature works out....

9SbGu0w.png

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Fozz said:

Forgive me if I'm reading that wrong, but is this calling for 8.5" in Aberdeen? That sounds crazier than the NAM.

You are reading it right and its very possible with what the trends have been

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Balmy 45 here... in Vegas. 

Wishing everyone the best for what is looking to be a modest snow storm region wide  

I feel so bad that you are missing this!  But I guess much of it is the chase. Your analysis leading up to this storm have been incredible!  Hope you are enjoying yourself and make it back before we get a big one! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Anyone feel this is a storm where NWS may be playing catch up the entire time? 

Yup. Been saying this for days. Watch NW trend at last minute. Models always overdo confluence and push storms flatter and weaker than they should be. Models have been hinting at the confluence weakening and there being ample gulf transport for days now. Why I said never to abandon ship 3.5 days out with the jackpot just to our south. It’s a foolish move and the last 24 hours proves why.  

Wait and see time... but the SREF and HRRR are hefty if anybody looks @ short term models

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Anyone feel this is a storm where NWS may be playing catch up the entire time? 

I am hoping that is the case. The past few years they have actually been too aggressive, but I hope we are now in a pattern that keeps them upping the ante!  Those are my favorite storms! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z nam incoming in the next half hour.... I expect a doozy. If Trends continue, they need to extend warnings up to the Baltimore parallel at least, if not further north 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Yup. Been saying this for days. Watch NW trend at last minute. Models always overdo confluence and push storms flatter and weaker than they should be. Models have been hinting at the confluence weakening and there being ample gulf transport for days now. Why I said never to abandon ship 3.5 days out with the jackpot just to our south. It’s a foolish move and the last 24 hours proves why.  

Wait and see time... but the SREF and HRRR are hefty if anybody looks @ short term models

I know the NWS uses the SREF'S for trends very close to a event so this has to have them thinking for sure. IF 12z models nail WSW will fly for everyone im sure 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.