cbmclean Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: She has a very obvious agenda. I doubt it's going to change her spin at all. As of right now...she has been right about the winter...it has been warm. If we flip cold and snowy she will bust, if we don't she was right (about that) but she has been misrepresenting the enso data in a way to support her warm forecast and to very nastily blast everyone who had a cold forecast and to imply they are hyping and attention seeking. I took some offense to that since I am in the "cold/snowy" contingent but I can ensure you I went with that outlook because I honestly believed based on the analogs I think are most pertinent that it will be cold and snowy from mid January on. If I am wrong I am wrong, but to imply I am just saying that because I want it to be snowy or because I want some kind of attention is presumptuous and unnecessary. She could promote her own forecast without personally attacking everyone who disagrees with her. I feel like I have been very adamant about defending my own belief that things would turn colder, but without once attacking or implying a dishonest motive or doubting the integrity of those that disagree with me. Who is "Becky"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 some twitterer that psuhoffman was butting heads with over this nino nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, cbmclean said: Who is "Becky"? Twitter weather "expert". Dime a dozen nowadays 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: A stout 1040 HP in Quebec at 138... we shall see how that blocks the primary This is setting up nicely. We need an overly strong low that would normally mess us up with rain but won’t with that 30.40iah high over top of it. Mixing would be limited if at all. I can see a 35-10 temp to dew just before onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: Checking out some Met comments and it appears there is potential based on the upstream action in future runs this could trend South due to the TPV. Maybe a more Mid Atlantic type storm, simply dicussing options. I do like the looks of something this weekend. When the pattern is really primed ( after Jan 24 th this would have turned into a HECS possibly, but is stay weak, pressure-wise, but has a lot of Southern moisture, ala some of the events we do well with. A lot to see later today with the Euro and the EPS and Ukmet. This is only the beginning. Love your optimism! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Based off the Euro, and the improvements out West, the forecasted warm up next week is pretty muted, if not gone. Euro has shown a cycle over cycle trend to improve things out West and in the Pac. And, if we do get snow amounts of a significant level I imagine the temps would be even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Euro says what warmup? lol. I can extrapolate another storm here d12-13 as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Another day and another record. Very impressive ! More negative then yesterday and the event continues. If we do indeed get the strat to down well accordingly, as it appears it could, I would think some drool worthy looks might be in the cards from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Any thoughts from the latest Euro about the possibilities around the 18th or 21st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 46 minutes ago, frd said: Another day and another record. Very impressive ! More negative then yesterday and the event continues. If we do indeed get the strat to down well accordingly, as it appears it could, I would think some drool worthy looks might be in the cards from the models. Trying to learn on this complicated issue. How does this create the possibility of anamolous weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Trying to learn on this complicated issue. How does this create the possibility of anamolous weather? The very easy to understand explanation is when the strat PV is very strong/consolidated it promotes a +AO/NAO and keeps the cold bottled up in the high latitudes. When the strat PV gets beat up it promotes high pressure/blocking in the high latitudes and the cold is displaced into the mid latitudes. Also promotes storm tracks that favor winter wx in the mid latitudes (applies to europe and asia as well as north america). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12z eps is trending towards a strong -AO with more ridging/high pressure near the poles. This gradual trend has been going on for days now but 12z is the best look yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z eps is trending towards a strong -AO with more ridging/high pressure near the poles. This gradual trend has been going on for days now but 12z is the best look yet. WOW WOOF !! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Any thoughts from the latest Euro about the possibilities around the 18th or 21st? Just a quick look but the 18th has degraded somewhat and the 20/21 has improved. Nothing earth shattering but we do see a bump up on snow means through the 20/21st period with several nice/very nice hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Just a quick look but the 18th has degraded somewhat and the 20/21 has improved. Nothing earth shattering but we do see a bump up on snow means through the 20/21st period with several nice/very nice hits. Thank you! I was curious because you had mentioned last night or this morning that the 20/21 had a more classic storm progression. I hope it continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Just a quick look but the 18th has degraded somewhat and the 20/21 has improved. Nothing earth shattering but we do see a bump up on snow means through the 20/21st period with several nice/very nice hits. I think we have to deal with a cutter or two in the 16th-19th window and hope they prime the flow for a potential snowy solution on the 20-21st. Both GFS bros today go with the 20-21st storm as that big cutter however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z eps is trending towards a strong -AO with more ridging/high pressure near the poles. This gradual trend has been going on for days now but 12z is the best look yet. Yeah getting that sweet look up top. Looks like heights are really set to build in the NA beyond d15. An actual legit -NAO maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 The above image ( several posts up ) ABOVE is from hour 318, this image below is hour 354, could be setting up for another hit and the look is crazy up top. Progression matches the CFSv2 and the weeklies and is near the date of the strat and trop potential coupling as well. Something between the 19th and the 25 th should go our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think we have to deal with a cutter or two in the 16th-19th window and hope they prime the flow for a potential snowy solution on the 20-21st. Both GFS bros today go with the 20-21st storm as that big cutter however. That said, with the "warm up" looking fairly tame, the possibility for some front-end frozen is certainly there in any cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think we have to deal with a cutter or two in the 16th-19th window and hope they prime the flow for a potential snowy solution on the 20-21st. Both GFS bros today go with the 20-21st storm as that big cutter however. I saw that on the GFS suite. I agree, we need that system/s around the 18th (however it plays out/evolves) to rotate towards the general 50/50 region to set up for the 20/21st. Eps has a much clearer signal for that vs. the GEFS which is pretty washed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, frd said: The above image ( several posts up ) ABOVE is from hour 318, this image below is hour 354, could be setting up for another hit and the look is crazy up top. Progression matches the CFSv2 and the weeklies and is near the date of the strat and trop potential coupling as well. Something between the 19th and the 25 th should go our way. Careful with that word should...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Several days ago, iirc, the system for this weekend was modeled as a possible brief front end frozen with a low track to the Great Lakes. Not that a cutter cant happen and probably will happen over the next 10 days but with a shifting pattern even ens are having a tough time with systems in the D8-10+ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 42 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Several days ago, iirc, the system for this weekend was modeled as a possible brief front end frozen with a low track to the Great Lakes. Not that a cutter cant happen and probably will happen over the next 10 days but with a shifting pattern even ens are having a tough time with systems in the D8-10+ @poolz1 You think we see a very good run of the weeklies tonight again? Maybe the best yet ? Speculating that if the Euro models what is happening up top correctly ,and it seems it is, the weeklies should be very good. I know you follow the SSWE so figure I ask you. Heard that the latest GFS really makes the connection with coupling on Jan 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I'm hearing the weeklies have even more blocking. Not sure how that's possible. Last run was almost perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: @poolz1 You think we see a very good run of the weeklies tonight again? Maybe the best yet ? Speculating that if the Euro models what is happening up top correctly ,and it seems it is, the weeklies should be very good. I know you follow the SSWE so figure I ask you. Heard that the latest GFS really makes the connection with coupling on Jan 20. Looks like we'll have -NAO until Feb 25th, then a flip.. +NAO. I've been wondering if we would do anything about last Feb 21st 588dm heights this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Look like we'll have -NAO until Feb 25th, then a flip.. +NAO. I've been wondering if we would do anything about last Feb 21st 588dm heights this year. The - NAO is coming, you are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm hearing the weeklies have even more blocking. Not sure how that's possible. Last run was almost perfect. NC/SC will like it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm hearing the weeklies have even more blocking. Not sure how that's possible. Last run was almost perfect. Not the best collection, but something to look at . And yes, I am hearing they are very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: NC/SC will like it That bad lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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