RedSky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah well I work in a job where a few days a week some elementary kid throws a fit and tears up a classroom and so they call me to help. I'm supposed to talk the kid down. Doesn't work, and I wind up chasing the kid around the building for hours waiting for his parents to come get him. Which means my actual work doesn't get done. When I retire I do not want to work with kids, I need a break. A nursing home would be ok. Couple days a week. This winter must be destroying you, no snow days for a breather from snowflake monsters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: This winter must be destroying you, no snow days for a breather from snowflake monsters You said it. But these kids ain't snowflakes. Librarian called the cops on one kid and it didn't even phase him. He kept destroying the place. So they called a third cop. Still no good. So they called EMS. The five of them got the kid into a stretcher and took him away. 5th grader. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Was at Jones Beach this am looked like some off shore. Special Marine Warning for... Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point NY out 40 NM... Peconic and Gardiners Bays... * Until 130 PM EST. * Very cold air moving out over the waters around eastern Long Island has already produced isolated waterspouts late this morning. More waterspouts may be possible into early this afternoon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Will be interesting to see how quickly precip moves into the area Wednesday. Some guidance hinting that if it's early enough, it may begin as freezing rain. Highest probs for this currently just W and N of the city. Even with the southerly flow forecast, it will take some time to erode this air mass. Then it's game on for another heavy rain/ring of fire/southerly flow event Wed night - Thu AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Winds are whipping now worse than this morning but my wind advisory is no longer in effect 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Is it possible to get lake effect snow from the long island sound? (Sound effect snow). The sky got cloudy here north Nassau and very tiny ice crystals/snowflakes were falling on my windshield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 hours ago, wdrag said: For those with the chance of check 2M temp guidance... take a look at current GFS vs EC 2m temp fcsts (this has also been the history of both models for this event). Looks to me like the EC has outperformed the GFS in morning lows NYC-AVP and i think will be a winner with todays afternoon high when temps don't rise much more than 8F from the 730AM lows. This because of the maximized cold pool, 500MB down to the sfc, represented by the -24C 850MB temp at 18z/21. Also, I've noticed arctic chill is like molasses and it tends to trail the coldest air aloft. MAX today in CP might only be 14F. A chilly day...not necessarily a big deal for most of us (its winter), except utilities use explicitly accurate hourly or 3 hourly temp fcsts for ensuring everyone has heat and fuel, including industry. For sure splitting the difference between the EC/GFS 2 m temp was an improvement, upon the GFS alone. Revising this: now that its % in CP and -2 here Wantage...this is ECMWF op run after op run superiority upon the GFS 2m temps from AVP to NYC for sure... I see there EC 2m temps best on weather.us (subscriber). In any case, I now think that NYC will be hard pressed to exceed 13F this afternoon. (8F rise form this mornings low). Updated 721A/21. Always enjoyed your discussions (BOX or Mt Holly)...the best. And enjoyed meeting you at Mt. Holly open house several years ago. Also, a huge thank you for writing me back on how to interpret FOUS output many, many, years ago (I think I still have that letter somewhere!). -Greg in NJ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Only 11 right now after a low of 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 Current temp is 13 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 EPS very cold for next week with a strong PV signal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Looks like I maxed out at 9.0°, down to 7.9° now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 hours ago, David-LI said: Is it possible to get lake effect snow from the long island sound? (Sound effect snow). The sky got cloudy here north Nassau and very tiny ice crystals/snowflakes were falling on my windshield. It is. There was a band over Suffolk this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Only the 5th winter since 2000 in NYC with a high temperature that couldn’t get above 15 degrees. 18-19.....14 so far 17-18.....13 15-16.....15 03-04.....15 02-03.....15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Only the 5th winter since 2000 that NYC had a high temperature of 15 degrees or colder. 18-19.....14 so far 17-18.....13 15-16.....15 03-04.....15 02-03.....15 I'm surprised January 7, 2014 didn't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: I'm surprised January 7, 2014 didn't get it done. Probably a midnight high. I remember one day that winter where it stayed in the single digits all afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: I'm surprised January 7, 2014 didn't get it done. 17 was the best NYC did for a low max during the 13-14 winter. 1 2017-2018 13 0 2 2016-2017 23 0 3 2015-2016 15 0 4 2014-2015 19 0 5 2013-2014 17 0 6 2012-2013 20 0 7 2011-2012 27 0 8 2010-2011 23 0 9 2009-2010 20 0 10 2008-2009 16 0 11 2007-2008 20 0 12 2006-2007 18 0 13 2005-2006 24 0 14 2004-2005 18 0 15 2003-2004 15 0 - 2002-2003 15 0 17 2001-2002 31 0 18 2000-2001 25 0 19 1999-2000 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Thanks. I couldn’t find any in more recent times. here's one from 1885...2/9-10...2.22".....-2 on 2/11... https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1885-02-10/ed-1/seq-5/ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 The wind gusts over the last hour have gotten absolutely insane. Probably 50mph if not a tad higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Down to +3.1° after a high of 7.1° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 21 minutes ago, uncle W said: here's one from 1885...2/9-10...2.22".....-2 on 2/11... https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1885-02-10/ed-1/seq-5/ That looks like it could be one of the closest with only a 2 day lag following the heaviest rain. 1885-02-09 37 22 29.5 -4.7 35 0 1.74 0.0 1885-02-10 45 11 28.0 -6.4 37 0 0.48 T 1885-02-11 11 -2 4.5 -30.0 60 0 0.00 0.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 29 minutes ago, ict1523 said: The wind gusts over the last hour have gotten absolutely insane. Probably 50mph if not a tad higher. Just walked the dog and was certainly blowing up. Frequency of the gusts are impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Just walked the dog and was certainly blowing up. Frequency of the gusts are impressive. Bayville up on the North Shore got close to 60 mph. ...Nassau County... Bayville 57 443 PM 1/21 WXFLOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 This morning, much of the region experienced its coldest temperatures of the winter so far. Daily minimum temperatures included: Allentown: 5° (lowest since 1/18/2018: 4°); Boston: 5° (lowest since 1/7/2018: -2°); New York City: 4° (lowest since 2/14/2016: -1°); Newark: 4° (lowest since 1/7/2018: 4°); Philadelphia: 10° (lowest since 1/7/2018: 4°); and Poughkeepsie: 3° (lowest since 1/18/2018: -2°). In addition, New York City's high temperature of 14° was that city's lowest maximum temperature since January 6, 2018 when the thermometer topped out at just 13°. The SOI was +7.78 today. The SOI could go negative within 3-6 days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.132. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.055. On January 20, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.625 (RMM). That amplitude had risen from the January 19-adjusted figure of 1.426. The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 4 and into and into Phases 5 and 6 over the next 3-6 days. Initially, the MJO's amplitude will likely continue to increase, but it appears unlikely that the kind of high amplitudes that characterized late December into the start of January will develop. Nevertheless, a rapid collapse of the MJO into low amplitude values is unlikely. Instead, the process will likely be gradual perhaps requiring an additional 5 or more days. With the MJO's likely pushing back toward lower amplitudes and/or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Even the Southeast could experience potential snowfall opportunities. During the next 10 days, two storms will likely impact the region: January 24-25 and January 27-29. The former will likely be a rainstorm in much or all of the region. The latter storm could be the bigger one and potentially snowy. Details about the latter storm remain uncertain, but the extent of Atlantic blocking will be important. The GEFS ensembles continue to show the AO's diving around the January 28 timeframe +/- 1 day much as happened just ahead of the January 2005 blizzard. While a big storm is far from assured, the combination of the MJO's moving into low amplitudes and/or its colder phases, strong to severe blocking rapidly developing, and frigid air lurking in Canada suggests real potential. Operational models that whipsaw from > 8" for a given location at one cycle then little or nothing for the same location at the next 12-hour cycle should be largely discounted until their run-to-run continuity improves. There is a big difference between 500 mb verification scores and synoptic detail verification. The EPS and GEFS continue to hint at a pattern with potential. At this timeframe, there is little reason to discount the existence of such potential, especially as critical details remain unresolved. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City has continued to increase. The implied probability is currently 55%. This colder than normal monthly average would occur during a month when the first 9 days had a mean temperature of 40.0°. During January 1869-2018, only 4 out of the 20 January cases with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above through 1/9 had a monthly mean temperature below 32.6° (the current normal figure): 1939, 1966, 2000, and 2005. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Maybe rain ending as some snow on Thursday? Especially for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 The wind has been horrific in Manhattan the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Tractor trailer just overturned on the upper level of the Verrazano Bridge. I'm guessing it was due to the wind. Surprisingly they didn't have a tractor trailer ban the last 24 hours with the wind the way it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Tractor trailer just overturned on the upper level of the Verrazano Bridge. I'm guessing it was due to the wind. Surprisingly they didn't have a tractor trailer ban the last 24 hours with the wind the way it has been. With a wind advisory in effect, one would reasonably have expected such a ban. Hopefully, no one was hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: With a wind advisory in effect, one would reasonably have expected such a ban. Hopefully, no one was hurt. From my experience they usually don't ban tractor trailers from the NYC bridges unless there is a high wind warning issued. They do have their own wind measuring instruments on all the MTA-TBTA/PAPD controlled bridges to keep an eye on things. I wonder what the threshold is for them to actually declare a ban. Could also have been a more northerly component to the gust that flipped the tractor trailer then what has been ongoing since yesterday. That bridge runs basically E-W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 39 minutes ago, weathermedic said: From my experience they usually don't ban tractor trailers from the NYC bridges unless there is a high wind warning issued. They do have their own wind measuring instruments on all the MTA-TBTA/PAPD controlled bridges to keep an eye on things. I wonder what the threshold is for them to actually declare a ban. Could also have been a more northerly component to the gust that flipped the tractor trailer then what has been ongoing since yesterday. That bridge runs basically E-W. You could be right. It’s troubling that such an accident occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Hey, look at that! More rain for NYC! It's not like its January or anything... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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