78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Agreed. But I’m skeptical about blaming the woeful gfs too much on that important aspect. Hopefully the shut down will end soon and we should theoretically see a spike in performance a few weeks later if that premise is mainly responsible. I agree, but the way things have been going, the shutdown will probably end when winter is near an end. At least it will help for hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is certainly not suppressed Nope certainly not suppressed. Not going to show up on the mean snow map but quite the ice signal in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro That’s just the op, not the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Meanwhile for the would be storm this weekend DC is in the sweet spot it seems. RIC is too tainted and north of BWI too fringed. IAD trouncing BOS in the winter of 2018-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Huh, ensemble mean not as impressive as I'd have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: IAD trouncing BOS in the winter of 2018-19. Thank you for pointing that out. I had no idea. I thought BOS was neck in neck with the top performers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Huh, ensemble mean not as impressive as I'd have thought. That’s not what I have. I have 12+ for that time period and 18+ for the mean for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nope certainly not suppressed. Not going to show up on the mean snow map but quite the ice signal in SNE. Decent snow signal in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That’s just the op, not the ensembles The ensemble members are there for certain parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s not what I have. I have 12+ for that time period and 18+ for the mean for most of us. Weird disparity across sources... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Huh, ensemble mean not as impressive as I'd have thought. Huge difference between Stormvista snowfall maps and WB/US wx EPS mean maps. My earlier post about the EPS was based on the SV maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Weird disparity across sources... And SV usually is the tamest. Either way it’s probably going to snow multiple times and accumulate in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Weird disparity across sources... Skewed by IP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just because I'm bored with nothing to do until game time... I'd like to see some of those 'massive' individual members... Grindr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: The ensemble members are there for certain parameters. I learned something new. Thanks. I see them now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Maybe a qpf mean is better since snow maps are vendor generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Skewed by IP? That would be my guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The snow maps mean absolutely nothing at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 38 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ditto dude. I have something to do. However even so I want to see the individual members as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Meh. Not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 the south coast could get a surprise if this trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the south coast could get a surprise if this trend continues The eps does brush them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the south coast could get a surprise if this trend continues Plenty of time for the SREFs mean to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 EPS looked nice. What’s the issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Plenty of time for the SREFs mean to be right. Don’t do it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the south coast could get a surprise if this trend continues I saw the EPS has some snow getting up to long island as well....last second hail Mary for a coating to an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The snow maps mean absolutely nothing at this time range. Yeah definitely, neither do Day 7-10 op runs. It is interesting the differences between vendors though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looked nice. What’s the issue? Good QPF signal for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I saw the EPS has some snow getting up to long island as well....last second hail Mary for a coating to an inch? Keep in mind that if the drunk member gives an inch of qpf and the other 50 members zilch the mean world show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: AMOUT As expected a crock of sh it by a Union Steward, read this Dr. Neil Jacobs is deputy administrator with NOAA Accurate weather forecasts are one of the most important functions the federal government provides to Americans. During the recent partial lapse in appropriations, the National Weather Service (NWS) has continued to perform this critical function with no degradation in forecast skill or model performance. Excepted NWS employees are working tirelessly on mission-essential functions to protect life and property, and all of the resources needed to support the operational models and services continue to be available. The NWS, which is the operational forecasting division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, provides products and services to protect lives and property. The flagship weather model, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS), is the key driver of these products and services. The ability to predict the future state of the atmosphere weeks in advance, through a set of mathematical equations that describe chaotic fluid motion, is one of the greatest achievements in modern-day science. In order to predict what the weather will be in the weeks ahead, tens of millions of atmospheric and marine observations are collected daily from around the planet and satellites in space. Determining the current state of the atmosphere is a very complex process requiring massive supercomputers to run model code. The goal is to find a single right answer out of an infinite number of incorrect possibilities. This is done four times a day by NWS. While this is truly a monumental achievement, there is a vast amount of research yet to be done to improve the accuracy of weather forecasting. A phenomenon in the GFS, known as forecast skill “dropout,” has recently been cited as evidence that the current partial lapse in appropriations is causing the NWS forecasts to become worse. These dropouts are a known self-correcting problem that occur once or twice a month and result in a 10-20 percent decrease in accuracy of the 5-to-10 day forecast. The model typically takes a day or two to return to its normal level of accuracy, as was the case with the dropout that occurred on Dec. 21. Model accuracy ebbs and flows as a function of complex weather patterns. The decrease in accuracy around Dec. 25 was neither a dropout nor unexpected, and a similar trend was seen in the well-regarded European model. The fact that the accuracy was above average during the 10-day span prior to this shift gave the appearance of decreased performance. Contrary to statements seen in the press, NWS employees do not just go in and “fix” model code every time there is a dropout. The production code is locked down, and upgrades are performed on a systematic basis. Proper evaluation of forecast model skill requires a very methodical approach, and conclusive results are obtained by monitoring statistics over months to years, not daily or even weekly fluctuations. The Department of Commerce, working in a bipartisan fashion with Congress, has made improving the GFS accuracy one of its highest priorities. A significant amount of funding, made available in the 2018 hurricane disaster supplemental appropriations, was directed to improving data assimilation and mitigating dropouts. Additionally, a tremendous amount of effort has gone into the development of the next-generation global forecasting system, the Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3), which will be the most significant upgrade to the dynamic core of the GFS since 1980. Development work on implementing this upgrade will continue following the end of the partial lapse in funding. On Jan. 7, President Trump signed into law the National Integrated Drought Information System Reauthorization Act. This bipartisan legislation reauthorizes key sections of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017. Additionally, it establishes the Earth Prediction Innovation Center, which will serve as the virtual hub for development of a community FV3-GFS. This effort will leverage recent advancements in cloud-based high-performance computing, and partnerships with industry and academia, to enhance NWS prediction capabilities. I would like to express my deepest appreciation to all of the NWS employees who have been working tirelessly. It is an honor to help lead an organization of individuals with such dedication to the mission of protecting life and property. https://www.postandcourier.com/opinion/commentary/weather-prediction-still-accurate-even-during-shutdown/article_6944faba-15d3-11e9-96ea-b79ddbf38e0b.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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