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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Question for the board.   Does anyone really see any sustainable cold air coming in?  I see transient progressive stuff and not any real -nao. 

Will be fighting the calendar in about 3 weeks and running out of time. 

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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Question for the board.   Does anyone really see any sustainable cold air coming in?  I see transient progressive stuff and not any real -nao. 

Will be fighting the calendar in about 3 weeks and running out of time. 

Is there such a thing as sustainable cold in the south? 

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4 minutes ago, gman said:

Is there such a thing as sustainable cold in the south? 

Rarely but it can happen. I am 53 years old and lived in the Triad, Brown Summit as a kid, my entire life. When I was in elementary school in the mid 1970's we had one unusually cold January. It was so cold that we spent about three straight weeks skating on farm ponds. Our families had several weekend skate parties. A local tobacco farmer would invite everyone over to skate at night. He would turn the heat on in one of the tobacco bulk barns and have a bonfire as well. It was a blast and something we may never see again in my lifetime.

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Just now, jtgus said:

Rarely but it can happen. I am 53 years old and lived in the Triad, Brown Summit as a kid, my entire life. When I was in elementary school in the mid 1970's we had one unusually cold January. It was so cold that we spent about three straight weeks skating on farm ponds. Our families had several weekend skate parties. A local tobacco farmer would invite everyone over to skate at night. He would turn the heat on in one of the tobacco bulk barns and have a bonfire as well. It was a blast and something we may never see again in my lifetime.

That would be January 1977. We missed most of the  month of school in Buncombe County.

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My comment was only relative to the what weeklies were showing (cold plus a block) and how this was projected to be a moderate el nino winter neither of which are seemingly coming to fruition now.

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5 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

That would be January 1977. We missed most of the  month of school in Buncombe County.

January '77 was anomalous and I recall it as well even living in southeast NC.  Lots of frozen ponds for sure.

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5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

My comment was only relative to the what weeklies were showing (cold plus a block) and how this was projected to be a moderate el nino winter neither of which are seemingly coming to fruition now.

ENSO is neutral right now...

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Surprised there isn't a thread started for the Jan. 29-30-31 time frame.  The chance of some snow looks good during that time if not a possible storm forming in the gulf to enhance the snow, something to follow, things are looking better and better for that time and we're only 4 days out.

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Just now, Tacoma said:

Surprised there isn't a thread started for the Jan. 29-30-31 time frame.  The chance of some snow looks good during that time if not a possible storm forming in the gulf to enhance the snow, something to follow, things are looking better and better for that time and we're only 4 days out.

Agreed, have to consider that basically every system we have had lately has over performed in terms of qpf 

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Do we have any folks left from Alabama or Mississippi? Our banner states we cover those areas. Seems like we're only S. VA, NC, SC and Ga folks. 

**It looks like the frontal passage snows will definitely hit those areas. 

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12 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Surprised there isn't a thread started for the Jan. 29-30-31 time frame.  The chance of some snow looks good during that time if not a possible storm forming in the gulf to enhance the snow, something to follow, things are looking better and better for that time and we're only 4 days out.

 

8 minutes ago, southernskimmer said:

Agreed, have to consider that basically every system we have had lately has over performed in terms of qpf 

Well I did have one but it got axed... 

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Do we have any folks left from Alabama or Mississippi? Our banner states we cover those areas. Seems like we're only S. VA, NC, SC and Ga folks. 

**It looks like the frontal passage snows will definitely hit those areas. 

I’ve noticed very few from there in the absence of obs threads during major events.  Then everyone comes out of the woodwork.  I remember being amazed during the December 2017 storm how many metro Atlanta posters I saw in the obs thread because I mostly see NC/SC in here when I’m looking 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’ve noticed very few from there in the absence of obs threads during major events.  Then everyone comes out of the woodwork.  I remember being amazed during the December 2017 storm how many metro Atlanta posters I saw in the obs thread because I mostly see NC/SC in here when I’m looking 

Going back and looking at the Tennessee Valley Banner, they cover northern Miss and Alabama; which they should. We need to update ours to state the southern areas; or I really think another forum could be create that covers areas from Louisiana, middle and southern Miss/Alabama, and Florida. Maybe even include southern Ga.  

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I'm liking the 2/1-2/2 potential.  Looks like plenty of cold air available if some of the energy dropping down can amplify a little bit, at this lead time we might see some mega-hits showing up on the models soon.

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10 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'm liking the 2/1-2/2 potential.  Looks like plenty of cold air available if some of the energy dropping down can amplify a little bit, at this lead time we might see some mega-hits showing up on the models soon.

One thing that looks pretty consistent on modeling is that our western ridge will break down on the heels of this “threat”. Could fit the “pattern going out” theory 

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0Z Op Euro backed off on the quick .5-1" event in ATL but most of the ensemble members and new FV3 still have us getting some minor accumulation before the cold air sets in. As I stated before, that would be a traffic nightmare.

Screen Shot 2019-01-25 at 7.50.31 AM.png

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16 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'm liking the 2/1-2/2 potential.  Looks like plenty of cold air available if some of the energy dropping down can amplify a little bit, at this lead time we might see some mega-hits showing up on the models soon.

Almost no ensemble support for this- pattern is too progressive. Not optimistic after the Tues event.

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2 hours ago, Lookout said:

gfs and euro ensembles look pretty decent for the nw half. ....but of course areas to the east of 85 look pretty much screwed with the leeside screwzone in full effect...which means i'll likely have to make a trip to see it. But an inch or two looks possible and north/west of an atlanta to gainesville to clayton line. In fact some of the euro ensembles show several inches for the mountains. 

Would love to see this thing put down a few inches ahead of this arctic airmass to maximize the low temp potential. Although the euro doesn't look nearly as impressive with the outbreak as it once did. 

 

So what exactly made last nights Euro and as you mentioned several ensemble members favor the mountains for this event? Because as it’s modeled it should absolutely favor NW GA. 

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

This was a pretty decent run for the N&W parts of the triangle for early next week

Euro puts down 1-2" from the frontal passage...

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3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Second event trying to get going at Day 7. Snowing for the second time in four days in Northern Bama.

So close to something huge...

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