Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

[mackerel_sky]

Next!!! Trending worse and worse, if you want to see frozen precip 

[BIG FROSTY]

40 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Somebody wake up @BIG FROSTY and tell him he got NAMed tonight 

Yes maybe a token flake Wednesday! 

[BullCityWx]

8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Next!!! Trending worse and worse, if you want to see frozen precip 

It looks pretty solid here 

[jjwxman]

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Next!!! Trending worse and worse, if you want to see frozen precip 

00z GFS is barely hanging on.... for NC folks. It’s a very quick mover. We’re approaching 5 days out. We got to get some agreement from the remaining globals before I bite. @mackerel_sky not ready to pass just yet... but you’re right... the trend is your friend. 

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Just now, Queencitywx said:

It looks pretty solid here 

Yes it does!

[mackerel_sky]

5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It looks pretty solid here 

Very, very marginal temps. Not good when 32/33 degrees is what is shown verbatim, fine line for liquid/frozen

[jjwxman]

Taken verbatim, 00z GFS has a nasty Ice Storm in NC along the HWY 1 and I-95 Corridor. Some measurable snow falls in the Triangle and Triad.  Temps are very marginal, so melting/run off would likely cut into all amounts shown. 

[Jonathan]

Unrelated, but how absolutely incredible is this? The NAO is a living being and it knows EXACTLY when meteorological winter begins. It's like someone flips the POSITIVE switch literally at 12am on 12/1. Unreal.

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Unrelated, but how absolutely incredible is this? The NAO is a living being and it knows EXACTLY when meteorological winter begins. It's like someone flips the POSITIVE switch literally at 12am on 12/1. Unreal.

The strat warming event will save us! Just look at the dive towards negative mid December 

[ryan1234]

If you all are reacting and are glued to each individual model run, then you're going to literally drive yourselves insane. We're looking for a favorable pattern and we certainly have that. Stop. Freaking. Out. It's literally not even winter. We don't live in Maine. Let's take what we can get! Be grateful we actually have something to track. 

[LiQuiDBuD]

If you all are reacting and are glued to each individual model run, then you're going to literally drive yourselves insane. We're looking for a favorable pattern and we certainly have that. Stop. Freaking. Out. It's literally not even winter. We don't live in Maine. Let's take what we can get! Be grateful we actually have something to track. 

Thank you. While all our dreams haven't yet come true, at least we're in a situation to dream. Right guys?!

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[Isopycnic]

06z Gfs  says congrats Boone only, hello dec 23rd! 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

27 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said:

Thank you. While all our dreams haven't yet come true, at least we're in a situation to dream.

 

"Show me the heart unfettered by foolish dreams and I'll show you a happy man."

[cbmclean]

10 hours ago, Jonathan said:

Unrelated, but how absolutely incredible is this? The NAO is a living being and it knows EXACTLY when meteorological winter begins. It's like someone flips the POSITIVE switch literally at 12am on 12/1. Unreal.

Take a look at the AO.  It shows the same thing.  Went +on precisely 12/1.

[BornAgain13]

Allan has pretty much given up on next weeks potential...

[burrel2]

Way to early to throw in the towel on next week. Models are trending quicker with the 2nd wave for a potential Friday event. Icon looks like a lot of ice for nc on the 12z run that just spit out. 

[msuwx]

GEM hops on the icy train with its 12z run.

[mackerel_sky]

10 minutes ago, msuwx said:

GEM hops on the icy train with its 12z run.

How accurate is the CMC? Isn’t it one that usually paints worse case scenarios for CAD? Could the models be getting better handle on things because the shortwaves are being sampled now?

[msuwx]

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

How accurate is the CMC? Isn’t it one that usually paints worse case scenarios for CAD? Could the models be getting better handle on things because the shortwaves are being sampled now?

Canadian often does pretty well with CAD, especially its regional model. 

 

Here's the deal though....all models, operational and ensemble, essentially show there will be an arctic high moving from the Great Lakes through the Northeast US and then out into the Atlantic late in the work week. Thursday through Friday afternoon appears to be the time when the high will be in very favorable cold air damming position.

 

The trend later yesterday and overnight was for most of the models to hold the most significant precipitation off until just after that prime CAD time range, when the high is slipping out into the Atlantic. 

 

It would only take a subtle change in timing for there to be significant ice concerns in the normally-favored cold air damming regions. The Canadian solution is not terribly unlike its previous runs...just a little more defined and slightly quicker with its 500mb feature, thus resulting in precip exploding while the high is still in prime CAD position.

 

Bottom line, most likely the timing won't work out for significant ice problems, but it certainly remains within the realm of possibility. 

[Buddy1987]

23 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Canadian often does pretty well with CAD, especially its regional model. 

 

Here's the deal though....all models, operational and ensemble, essentially show there will be an arctic high moving from the Great Lakes through the Northeast US and then out into the Atlantic late in the work week. Thursday through Friday afternoon appears to be the time when the high will be in very favorable cold air damming position.

 

The trend later yesterday and overnight was for most of the models to hold the most significant precipitation off until just after that prime CAD time range, when the high is slipping out into the Atlantic. 

 

It would only take a subtle change in timing for there to be significant ice concerns in the normally-favored cold air damming regions. The Canadian solution is not terribly unlike its previous runs...just a little more defined and slightly quicker with its 500mb feature, thus resulting in precip exploding while the high is still in prime CAD position.

 

Bottom line, most likely the timing won't work out for significant ice problems, but it certainly remains within the realm of possibility. 

For me last year the Canadian scored some pretty big coups in my opinion. I wouldn't discount it whatsoever for this, albeit I havent looked at model verification to see how it's been performing since last winter so my theory could be flawed. Anyhow this event in particular isn't so much in my opinion the cold source it's more as to whether or not the precip can get in here while damming is still prevalent. CMC and NAM perform best when verifying strength of cad therefore we just need the precip to behave (that is if you personally like ice events). This has been an ever changing synoptic setup and has swung pretty wildly since I started tracking a week ago when models started to hint at the possibility. 

[BullCityWx]

The canadian is at least 30MM of ice here.

 

[jjwxman]

I deem this not safe for social media. 

[ryan1234]

4 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

I deem this not safe for social media. 

If that actually came to fruition most of the state's population would be without power. And we'd end losing a lot of trees. It would make Hugo look like no big deal... 

[Billypg70]

11 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

If that actually came to fruition most of the state's population would be without power. And we'd end losing a lot of trees. It would make Hugo look like no big deal... 

In 02 & 05 GVL county had 2 huge ICE storms. 

I believe in 05 Duke Energy estimated that 95% of the County was without power at the height of the outages.

Greenville county at that time had around 750k living in the county.

Greer deemed that between 1.25 & 2 inches of freezing rain fell,

In and around Central & Northern GVL county.

I remember it raining hard & temps hovering between 23-25 during the heaviest rains.

You could hear transformer after transformer popping throughout the night.

On the morning drive.

More than half of the power poles I past was down.

I was without power in NE GVL county for almost 2 weeks.

My mother who lives on the side of Paris mountain didn't have power for almost 6 weeks.

As a winter weather lover.

I never want to see another freezing rain event  of that magnitude.

 

[CaryWx]

34 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

If that actually came to fruition most of the state's population would be without power. And we'd end losing a lot of trees. It would make Hugo look like no big deal... 

If only half those amounts came to fruition we'd be in deep kimchi

[oconeexman]

36 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

If that actually came to fruition most of the state's population would be without power. And we'd end losing a lot of trees. It would make Hugo look like no big deal... 

Bring it..GENERAC!

[Iceagewhereartthou]

52 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

I deem this not safe for social media. 

Meh... it's the Canadian, we're safe. 

[Buddy1987]

39 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Meh... it's the Canadian, we're safe. 

I always assume cut the totals in half with qpf output. Even still crippling if it came to fruition. 

[BIG FROSTY]

1 hour ago, ryan1234 said:

If that actually came to fruition most of the state's population would be without power. And we'd end losing a lot of trees. It would make Hugo look like no big deal... 

I give that map about 0.2% chance of verifying, and that's a stretch................. In fact I give half of that amount a 0.5% chance of verifying! Now I'm talking the 1.50-2.00 inch amounts

 

[ryan1234]

12 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I give that map about 0.2% chance of verifying, and that's a stretch................. In fact I give half of that amount a 0.5% chance of verifying! 

You know what they say about assuming....

However, we are way overdue for a significant ice storm. Not saying this is it, but at some point one of those "clown" maps are going to be right. Even if it's half those amounts.