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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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17 minutes ago, gearhead302 said:

Don't post this stuff......  orangeburgwx will have a storm thread up within the hour.... 

DOn't fall for the Euro clown maps! I have before - they're about as useful as a DGEX (ahem, Feb 2014...)

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1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

yea this is pretty close to game on for eastern carolinas

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_44.png

But what are temperatures like?  Im betting its all rain.

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1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

yea this is pretty close to game on for eastern carolinas

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_44.png

At hr 72 it's bombing off the coast, but the precip shield is not as expansive as you would expect. 

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Just now, ryanconway63 said:

But what are temperatures like?  Im betting its all rain.

temps are 35-40 at the surface....but its plenty cold aloft.....would need rates to be high enough to overcome.....light precip wont do it....

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Just now, downeastnc said:

temps are 35-40 at the surface....but its plenty cold aloft.....would need rates to be high enough to overcome.....light precip wont do it....

something to keep an eye on, even for eastern virginia.  those are some pretty major shifts/trends

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looks like precip makes it into extreme southeast virginia.....be interesting to see if the trend continues tonight

 

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14 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

At hr 72 it's bombing off the coast, but the precip shield is not as expansive as you would expect. 

If we could just get that low to off the coast of Brunswick GA and bomb there...

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NS captures SS on 18z Nam. Just wish SS would be a little further north coming of Texas coast. It digs to deep from AZ till GOM before it gets captured. Oh this is so so close.

 

500hv.conus.png

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Here was the Canadian at the same time today. Notice the isobars are a litllet flatter out in front coming across NC. Want them the sharpen up more SW to NE. The storm is wound up more/phased energy on the 18z Nam is whats causing this. If it can hook up phase eitheir quicker, futher north or stronger, then the trough orientation will change. 

 

500hv.conus.png

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The RDPS (which is the Short Range Canadian model and pretty good only goes out to 48. The pic above is the GDPS or Long Range Canadian Global. I wanted to post the Short range RDPS but Pivotal has the area we need to see botched out o figure. However I can make enough of it to see it looks probably as sexy as the 18z nam if not more. 

 

If this rabbit chase doesn't pan out. Good news is we have at least 2 more on its tale coming up mid week and next weekend.

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Sunday, Feb the 3rd at 13:00 
— Main run: 7.1 in
— Ensemble mean:  0.1 in
Maximum:  2.6 in    90% Percentile:  0 in
Minimum:  0 in    10% Percentile:  0 in
 
All times are local time (EST)
Current run: 12z
 
Now you see? That ensemble mean shows no support. 

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36 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:
Sunday, Feb the 3rd at 13:00 
— Main run: 7.1 in
— Ensemble mean:  0.1 in
Maximum:  2.6 in    90% Percentile:  0 in
Minimum:  0 in    10% Percentile:  0 in
 
All times are local time (EST)
Current run: 12z
 
Now you see? That ensemble mean shows no support. 

They don’t support the snow right now. But there is generally support for precipitation from a gulf system at that time. No reason to worry about anything else at this point. I just want to see a system showing up. 

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

Nice seeing the Euro with the Feb 2-3 storm, and FV3 was close.  Not sure why anyone would be pessimistic about this time period in general.  There is some decent pattern support for it

Agreed 100%. Im chasing unicorns with Sunday deal and mid week  cold front flizzard.

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4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Somebody please tell Cold Rain to lower the dang snow shields.

Falling snow is the only thing that impacts snow shield strength, unfortunately.  Also unfortunately, the 0z Nam did us no favors.  You usually get one Nam run that sucks you in with heavy qpf or favorable trends.  The 18z was probably it.  But then again, maybe the 6z bounces backs.  We’ll see. 

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Someone answered me. Thanks. I tried to do the like button, but I didn’t download tapatalk, and I have no idea what to do with my photosynthesis.

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