Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,499
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Rhino16
    Newest Member
    Rhino16
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

RAH sounds really bullish this far out.  Really good discussion.

There remains little to no change in forecast rationale from 24 hrs
ago, with average to above average forecast confidence in the
overall pattern, but below average confidence in details.

The middle Atlantic states will be firmly influenced by cold,
continental polar high pressure extending from the upr Midwest to
the Carolinas through the end of the week. 850 mb temperatures
trailing a pair of polar fronts that will cross cntl NC tonight and
Wednesday are forecast to nadir around minus 11-12 at GSO by 12Z
Thu. Related cold air advection will support a strong nwly breeze,
amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer, even nocturnally Wed night,
with wind chill values in the teens through late morning Thu.
Although the wind will subside by Thu night, the presence of a
"break-off", 1030 mb surface high over the wrn Carolinas Fri morning
will support colder air temperatures - mostly between 20 and 25
degrees. High temperatures will be similarly chilly, in the upr 30s
to mid 40s Thu and perhaps a 2-3 degrees less cold on Fri.

While the aforementioned mid-upr low/trough will lift newd and away
from the nern US through the end of the week, renewed nrn stream
amplification, with a few distinct shortwave troughs embedded
within, is forecast to occur from cntl Canada to the cntl
Appalachians Fri-Mon. At the same time, a srn stream shortwave
trough is forecast to migrate across the srn US, likely immediately
preceding the nrn stream troughs (ie. slightly out of phase),
through Sat-Sat night. None of those features, most borne from the
large, deep cyclone over the ern/e-cntl N. Pacific this morning, are
not forecast to reach the NOAM rawinsonde network until 12Z Thu; and
it will likely be the 00Z Fri NWP runs that provide a marked boost
in model agreement and forecast confidence - after those features
will have been sampled twice by the upr air network (12Z Thu and 00Z
Fri), and previous model run initialization influences been dampened
by hopefully "better" data.

Further complicating the forecast by D6-7 --and possible
continuation of large scale ascent, deformation, precipitation
production over the middle Atlantic states--  will be the degree of
Arctic stream amplification across the sern Canada/Great
Lakes/Northeast vicinity, as well as the ejection of additional srn
stream energy beneath a developing Rex block over the wrn CONUS.

Despite those complexities and details, the overall pattern will be
one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic
coast, with a track and intensity close to the preferred GEFS and
EPS means. Specifically, such a solution is unlike the wrn outlier
00Z/8th deterministic GFS track, which favors an inland track
through ern NC and warmer solution for cntl NC; and it is closer to
the 00Z/8th deterministic ECMWF track (ie. more offshore and colder
for cntl NC), and stronger. Additionally strong confluence aloft
over the nrn middle Atlantic states and Northeast, though to varying
degrees given the uncertainties aloft described above, will favor a
well-positioned, and strong, cold high extending across the middle
Atlantic states - one that will provide sufficient cold air to
support measurable snow across parts of the middle Atlantic
Piedmont, including probably the climatologically-favored nrn and
wrn NC Piedmont, from late Sat-early Sun, and potentially
longer.

I liked the fact that they preferred the ensembles track, rather than the constant GFS/FV3 inland track.  That's huge imo.  I'm not bought into this yet, as GSP is not bullish, says it's a mixed bag Miller B that changes everybody to rain Saturday night and Sunday.  That wouldn't be the case though I don't think if the ensembles track is correct. 

image.thumb.png.7eb4e43b3408802a17ac815f100b1bfa.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Where's that 850 line ajr refers to lining up?

Verbatim looks to be around the northern border counties on the GFS -- obviously it's going to move around a bunch the next few days

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS ensembles look like they have a stronger HP at 1040.  That's stout if it verifies.  Didn't most of the other guidance have it 1034-1038 or so?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I liked the fact that they preferred the ensembles track, rather than the constant GFS/FV3 inland track.  That's huge imo.  I'm not bought into this yet, as GSP is not bullish, says it's a mixed bag Miller B that changes everybody to rain Saturday night and Sunday.  That wouldn't be the case though I don't think if the ensembles track is correct. 

The Greenville NWS "changes everybody to rain" wording is a bunch of bunk IMO, especially for the hardcore CAD areas in the foothills.  Yeah, Raleigh NWS is going with more of a Miller A with mostly snow where temps allow and Greenville NWS is going with the Miller A/B Hybrid, mixed bag scenario.  I favor the mixed bag scenario, but not "changing to rain in all areas".

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, griteater said:

The Greenville NWS "changes everybody to rain" wording is a bunch of bunk IMO, especially for the hardcore CAD areas in the foothills.  Yeah, Raleigh NWS is going with more of a Miller A with mostly snow where temps allow and Greenville NWS is going with the Miller A/B Hybrid, mixed bag scenario.  I favor the mixed bag scenario, but not "changing to rain in all areas".

Correct me if I'm wrong but Raleigh is normally quite conservative to call for snow so I think its big they are so bullish on this storm so far

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6z EPS run looks significantly better than 0z. 2" mean line moved about 100 miles east. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but Raleigh is normally quite conservative to call for snow so I think its big they are so bullish on this storm so far

Yeah the last time GSP was more bullish so it's the other way around this time.  Go figure.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW. In the past, RAH was always very conservative early in the season, but once we had a good storm they’d be much less conservative the remainder of the season. Kind of like getting a kid to jump off the diving board the first time......it was hard but each time became a little easier unless there was a disappointing bust along the way.  For whatever reason, the more bullish attitude regarding winter weather resets over the summer. 

TW

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the 6z ICON would’ve been a good run if it had ran out through the duration. It was snowing in Charlotte and Greenville at 120.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I posted an update for anyone interested...

 

https://m.facebook.com/TheHuffmanbarometer

 

Brandon do you think north of I-40 has a decent shot to stay all snow or do we mix? Would really love to see another Miller A but a B/hybrid would mix a lot of folks.

Also, both GFS models continue bringing the goods with southern storm after southern storm and big Canadian HPs dropping down every few days. Fun times ahead?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ICON HAS to be too warm with a 1040-1041 HP in a beautiful spot. 32F line runs right along the VA/NC border.

It has this problem with the December storm too, IIRC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Someone smarter than me can speak on this but I swear I remember hearing there's something about the ICON's resolution that doesnt do well with CAD.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS looks like it will be a little further north from 6z ... looks stronger. 

Earlier phase too it looks like - MA should be happy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, ajr said:

Earlier phase too it looks like - MA should be happy

Mostly noise...result is fairly similar to 6z for most.  HP is slightly weaker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, griteater said:

The Greenville NWS "changes everybody to rain" wording is a bunch of bunk IMO, especially for the hardcore CAD areas in the foothills.  Yeah, Raleigh NWS is going with more of a Miller A with mostly snow where temps allow and Greenville NWS is going with the Miller A/B Hybrid, mixed bag scenario.  I favor the mixed bag scenario, but not "changing to rain in all areas".

It's strange, both the ensembles look they have this rolling south along the gulf coast.  Seems like we always get the A/B hybrid no matter what nowadays. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

It's strange, both the ensembles look they have this rolling south along the gulf coast.  Seems like we always get the A/B hybrid no matter what nowadays. 

Just don't have enough well-entrenched cold air to the south.  We want to see both Tennessee and North Carolina full of cold air prior to the storm as opposed to cold air retreating in TN and hanging on via cold air damming in NC as the storm approaches.  Cold air damming is great to have, just need it cold in TN prior to the storm as well for more snow.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Might be time for a dedicated thread..... but I know nobody wants to jinx it. 

Well I made it last month and it turned out just fine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

4-5 days out.  Time for @OrangeburgWX to see if he can go 2-2 with storm threads this season.  Reel it in!

I am soooooo tempted...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

No its fine, and you're right they're bullish.

Might be time for a dedicated thread..... but I know nobody wants to jinx it. 

 

1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

4-5 days out.  Time for @OrangeburgWX to see if he can go 2-2 with storm threads this season.  Reel it in!

Thread made 

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could any of the mods or red taggers comment on the government shutdown and if the GFS is getting the full current observational data input prior to each model run?  

 

Edit - Saw someone post in the mountain thread last night, that they thought the shutdown was affecting it, but don't really see where the would be the case...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   1 member

×