EastonSN+ Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Thanks. Definately a more favorable look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I don't hate this look at 60 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 That was a lot sharper at H5 this 12z Nam run, Lets keep digging and it should start reflecting at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Still not quite popping that low....but I like the look. Pretty potent vortmax....that is usually going to spell overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 43 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Anyone see the gefs and eps for NYE? yes, GEFS is encouraging, but EPS it's at it's range limit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Hallucinations of SWFEs when they're actually cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, Whineminster said: Hallucinations of SWFEs when they're actually cutters SWFEs are cutters that can’t cut. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 should we start a thread for the 24th? sounds like it's worth discussing further as models come in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, Bostonseminole said: should we start a thread for the 24th? sounds like it's worth discussing further as models come in.. Have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Have at it. i'm shy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: should we start a thread for the 24th? sounds like it's worth discussing further as models come in.. Maybe wait until all 12Z models first? don't want to jinx our good momentum on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, Bostonseminole said: i'm shy Depending on the outcome, It could be your first of many or your last for a long time................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, Bostonseminole said: i'm shy Let the weenie out, it’s the holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Snowy Xmas Eve day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 No guts, No glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy Xmas Eve day GFS and CMC agree Icon has rain to snow with the " cutter " for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 That "relaxation" that was the hot topic the past couple of weeks sure was brief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Full blown SWFE on the 6z GFS next week. Euro has some CAD, but not like GFS. Hopefully that improves. I'm sure you've ...et el have considered this, if not ... you should, but that could turn out to be a couple of icing events through that five days. The thing is,... each model is offering their individual charm as far as their typical biases go. The Euro appears to dig perhaps too much out west; even if just a little, there's so much foundation for SE ridging, the superposition of even subtle bias with bloating heights SE ... overwhelms in that evolution. Contrasting (perhaps enough?) the GFS is slightly more progressive, such that the trough out west is teensy weensy critical amount enough not as deep, and that helps flatten the latitude expanse of the eastern/SE heights. The Euro version offers some over the top high pressure...keeping us wedged at times enough to really prevent a truly awesome warm departure - albeit, too warm for anything else, However, the GFS and its soon to be brought-on-line parallel runs are both using said over-the-top high pressures with enough weight to cause either SWFE like your seeing...or if the fast flow in general shears out a little more we end up with less Lakes cutting cohesive cyclone and more in the way of ice storm set ups - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Tip, I moved the Xmas eve stuff to another thread....someone started a thread in the last hour for that little threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Tremendous poleward surge of tropical air...is this the Archambault event or is that next week? NAO doesn't tank until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: That "relaxation" that was the hot topic the past couple of weeks sure was brief. I'd say it moved long perfectly ... and - unfortunately - has relayed right into a SE ridge period. But, ...you know? I mentioned this a long while ago. Pretty obvious...perhaps, but, the circumstances et al had to 'relax' anyway. I mean, really ... was anyone delusional enough to think that 9 F on T.G. and the snow storm of that era, were going to repeat indefinitely when looking forward from climatology at that particular temporality? ... some were wondering if they could hold out, no doubt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Tip, I moved the Xmas eve stuff to another thread....someone started a thread in the last hour for that little threat oh sorry - cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 CMC is a lot colder than 0z for the 27th but it then warms up for everyone except NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: CMC is a lot colder than 0z for the 27th but it then warms up for everyone except NNE GFS blows also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 This next one is the 28th. Not 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This next one is the 28th. Not 27th GFS blows on either day, at least for SNE, NNE might still do OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This next one is the 28th. Not 27th Will probably be another rain event, Gfs is really warm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Will probably be another rain event, Gfs is really warm now. CMC is a lot colder New England has a chance for some snow with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC is a lot colder New England has a chance for some snow with this We definitely have a chance, but it needs some work. We're underdogs but not out of it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We definitely have a chance, but it needs some work. We're underdogs but not out of it yet. Jeff looks to cash in. SNE, not so much. Lots of time for it to cut more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now