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Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

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30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Welcome aboard the SS Titanic.  I boarded 3 weeks ago....

I’m the chef, stewed to the gills. I intend to step off the stern when this ship finally goes to its reward in March/April. If I survive I’ll be back next snow season cheering Anthony. As always ....

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Like I said before, this is the worse winter just because of the constant teases. “It’ll get better”, “pattern will change”, “damn confluence pressing too much”, “damn confluence not pressing enough”, “DC is snowing”, “more virtual snow”, “arctic outbreak to cutter 12 hours later to arctic outbreak 12 hours after”, etc.. lol

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5 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

Like I said before, this is the worse winter just because of the constant teases. “It’ll get better”, “pattern will change”, “damn confluence pressing too much”, “damn confluence not pressing enough”, “DC is snowing”, “more virtual snow”, “arctic outbreak to cutter 12 hours later to arctic outbreak 12 hours after”, etc.. lol

Pretty much and every forecast called for 40-60" of snow (which could still occur)

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Pretty much and every forecast called for 40-60" of snow (which could still occur)

Crazier things have happened in the past. You never know. Chances dwindle after Feb 20th but we could get snow in April. Would be funny if our snowiest months this winter occurred in November and April. Not sure if that’s ever happened before.

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8 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

Like I said before, this is the worse winter just because of the constant teases. “It’ll get better”, “pattern will change”, “damn confluence pressing too much”, “damn confluence not pressing enough”, “DC is snowing”, “more virtual snow”, “arctic outbreak to cutter 12 hours later to arctic outbreak 12 hours after”, etc.. lol

What bothers me the most is the constant, 'well everything is on track'. My forecast for much above normals snowfall is right on target. Grr. I think I'll be eating crow when I called for 100-115% of average snowfall this year. I think February is going to shape up about +1.5 to +2.5F overall. That would mean DJF ends just above average. We'll see. I am not seeing anything particularly sustaining of a massively snowy period. 

 

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pretty much and every forecast called for 40-60" of snow (which could still occur)

This would be historic and unprecedented at this point based on where we are in the season and what we have already received. If I was betting on that happening now, that would not be a safe bet. We would basically need a 6-12 inch snowstorm roughly every week into the beginning of March.

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1 hour ago, TwcMan said:

Crazier things have happened in the past. You never know. Chances dwindle after Feb 20th but we could get snow in April. Would be funny if our snowiest months this winter occurred in November and April. Not sure if that’s ever happened before.

Blizzard of 1888 redux or bust....that would be awesome if that was our storm

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

What bothers me the most is the constant, 'well everything is on track'. My forecast for much above normals snowfall is right on target. Grr. I think I'll be eating crow when I called for 100-115% of average snowfall this year. I think February is going to shape up about +1.5 to +2.5F overall. That would mean DJF ends just above average. We'll see. I am not seeing anything particularly sustaining of a massively snowy period. 

 

This would be historic and unprecedented at this point based on where we are in the season and what we have already received. If I was betting on that happening now, that would not be a safe bet. We would basically need a 6-12 inch snowstorm roughly every week into the beginning of March.

December was +2.6 and Jan -.1 so a + 2.5 would mean a fairly mild winter overall-outside of the 2 arctic shots.

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

What bothers me the most is the constant, 'well everything is on track'. My forecast for much above normals snowfall is right on target. Grr. I think I'll be eating crow when I called for 100-115% of average snowfall this year. I think February is going to shape up about +1.5 to +2.5F overall. That would mean DJF ends just above average. We'll see. I am not seeing anything particularly sustaining of a massively snowy period. 

 

This would be historic and unprecedented at this point based on where we are in the season and what we have already received. If I was betting on that happening now, that would not be a safe bet. We would basically need a 6-12 inch snowstorm roughly every week into the beginning of March.

2010 repeat and March didn't even have any snow. Not saying it'll happen but 32" is certainly doable

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How in gods name does JB have so many loyal followers when he forecasts above norm snow in the east 90% of the time and then spins and manipulates when it’s not going well.  

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How in gods name does JB have so many loyal followers when he forecasts above norm snow in the east 90% of the time and then spins and manipulates when it’s not going well.  

I think he just cancelled winter which is a great thing.

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17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I think he just cancelled winter which is a great thing.

Last I saw he was still saying “it’s coming” just pushed it back to Feb 15-mar 15 lol. 

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4 hours ago, TwcMan said:

Crazier things have happened in the past. You never know. Chances dwindle after Feb 20th but we could get snow in April. Would be funny if our snowiest months this winter occurred in November and April. Not sure if that’s ever happened before.

The winter of 1997 - 1998 had more snow in astronomical spring than astronomical winter in Central Park.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I think he just cancelled winter which is a great thing.

I'm not throwing the towel yet but it's in my hand for sure. Nothing seems to be changing meaningfully enough to create real threats here. We'll get the configuration good enough for the couple day shot of cold behind a cutter or otherwise nothing event near the coast, but nothing can sustain with the Pacific jet constantly demolishing any good setup. We've also had bad luck in the couple of windows we had for a snow event because of suppression. There's still time for a change for a week or so, but now we're into Feb and still looking 10+ days out for any sign of changes. The MJO leaning toward phase 5/6 again which means more insane Pacific Jet is another bad sign. 

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13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'm not throwing the towel yet but it's in my hand for sure. Nothing seems to be changing meaningfully enough to create real threats here. We'll get the configuration good enough for the couple day shot of cold behind a cutter or otherwise nothing event near the coast, but nothing can sustain with the Pacific jet constantly demolishing any good setup. We've also had bad luck in the couple of windows we had for a snow event because of suppression. There's still time for a change for a week or so, but now we're into Feb and still looking 10+ days out for any sign of changes. The MJO leaning toward phase 5/6 again which means more insane Pacific Jet is another bad sign. 

And if nothing changes by the second week, I certainly would not count on March to make things up.  Last year was a wild exception, and even that high monthly total was skewed by the major storm early on.

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I'm not throwing the towel yet but it's in my hand for sure. Nothing seems to be changing meaningfully enough to create real threats here. We'll get the configuration good enough for the couple day shot of cold behind a cutter or otherwise nothing event near the coast, but nothing can sustain with the Pacific jet constantly demolishing any good setup. We've also had bad luck in the couple of windows we had for a snow event because of suppression. There's still time for a change for a week or so, but now we're into Feb and still looking 10+ days out for any sign of changes. The MJO leaning toward phase 5/6 again which means more insane Pacific Jet is another bad sign. 

well at least we now know what killed winter in the 80s lol.  we didn't have all this technology back then so going through an 80s winter in the modern era should help us in the future to be able to predict these things.

I dont think the suppression was bad luck - it was the result of fast flow and confluence to our north.

 

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

It took them 12 days to get above freezing after they set the previous all-time record low in Jan 82.

1982-01-10 -5 -27 -16.0 -37.3 81 0 0.00 0.0 5
1982-01-11 3 -6 -1.5 -22.8 66 0 0.00 0.0 5
1982-01-12 10 -8 1.0 -20.2 64 0 0.11 1.1 5
1982-01-13 16 -3 6.5 -14.7 58 0 0.07 0.9 6
1982-01-14 7 -15 -4.0 -25.2 69 0 0.00 0.1 6
1982-01-15 12 -18 -3.0 -24.2 68 0 0.04 0.6 6
1982-01-16 6 -24 -9.0 -30.2 74 0 0.00 0.0 6
1982-01-17 2 -25 -11.5 -32.7 76 0 0.11 2.1 6
1982-01-18 22 0 11.0 -10.2 54 0 0.00 0.0 8
1982-01-19 27 5 16.0 -5.2 49 0 0.00 0.0 7
1982-01-20 28 7 17.5 -3.8 47 0 0.09 0.7 7
1982-01-21 27 23 25.0 3.7 40 0 0.00 0.0 8
1982-01-22 37 18 27.5 6.1

 

that was such a cold winter (especially January and April).  Just two snowy periods though, one in January when the plane crashed in the icy Potomac and the other one was of course the historic April event

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On 1/31/2019 at 7:22 PM, weatherpruf said:

too early for fishing, too late for snow....

Spring striped bass starts in early March north of the Tappen Zee and trout season also begins on LI and elsewhere.

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The ground hog didn't see his shadow so fishing will start early this year...who needs the MJO.

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I predict we won’t have a real spring until late April early May. But the snow may be hard to come by. I think we’ll still get some snow it’s too early to call winter over it’s gebruary 2nd it’s like August second oh summer is over that just doesn’t happen. I predict winter at least until the 10th of March and probably will stretch into late April as dreary windy days.

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10 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I think he just cancelled winter which is a great thing.

He's not the brightest. His whole global cooling, east coast hurricane thing is getting old. 

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3 hours ago, ag3 said:

Spring striped bass starts in early March north of the Tappen Zee and trout season also begins on LI and elsewhere.

Since the blackback flounder fishery crashed years ago, and the whiting disappeared, there is not much to fish for in the bay in March anymore. As for trout fishing, I only do it because saltwater mostly sucks anymore; the amount of trout stocked locally is a joke ( and our season starts in April ) they throw like a few netfulls in the local creeks, and the birds eat them all up. Then it gets hot out and the ones that didn't get caught or eaten by birds die. I do not fish for stripers; they are teetering on a crash again so I imposed my own moratorium. 

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