• Member Statistics

    16,728
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Stormheartgypsy
    Newest Member
    Stormheartgypsy
    Joined
Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Here's RDU:

 

 

It'll be interesting to see if that change over is more of a zr vs a rn scenario.  Or if we get a lot more mixing period.  It is extremely close in my area.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

You think this has big ZR potential? Maybe I'm wrong but just looking at GFS (don't have access to Euro at the moment) it doesn't look like it'll take much. 

I think the cold damming is going to lock in pretty well with this one.  Yeah, legit concerns for substantial ice...just a matter of how much sleet vs. frz rain, and where that shakes out

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Falls and Queencity.   

CantralNC, After January 2017 I'm all conditioned for this one to have the sharp cutoff west of my location  :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I could totally believe that. That looks more realistic than some of these insane total GFS/Euro were popping out. Someone is going to get mixing out of this so if you're on that 1-2 line like above..heartbreak!

Haha...i live on the 1-2 line...every storm...every time.  I fully expect it to play out just like that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, packfan98 said:

I hate to be a bummer, but bufkit only says that RDU gets .9" of snow from that run and no other frozen precip.

Lol...I'll take my >1" and be happy. Kidding aside, I would expect a little more then 1" but that is a possibility. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, griteater said:

I think the cold damming is going to lock in pretty well with this one.  Yeah, legit concerns for substantial ice...just a matter of how much sleet vs. frz rain, and where that shakes out

Yea that high in the north is enough...plus good high over the lakes so probably just being paranoid. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I’m just looking for “ trends” the NAM has the strongest of any high pressures modeled! If we’re dependent on stronger high , to get colder wedge and temps , on a borderline airmass already, not much room for a weakening trend!

To be fair though that is an hour we had yet to get to in the NAM and the high was still 1041 in just the frame before, so to this point it still hasn’t wavered. We’re just getting further ahead into the event.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, griteater said:

I think the cold damming is going to lock in pretty well with this one.  Yeah, legit concerns for substantial ice...just a matter of how much sleet vs. frz rain, and where that shakes out

1000% agree there. I dont know where the freezing rain area sets up but where it does, ouch. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, rduwx said:

It'll be interesting to see if that change over is more of a zr vs a rn scenario.  Or if we get a lot more mixing period.  It is extremely close in my area.

As Grit just stated, if there is more ice then I think we get a big storm. If this is a miller a snow/rain storm we may only get that 1" (...then it will wash away). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man, there was some terrible Euro analysis last night. If you're going to stay up that late, at least get it right. 

Couple observations:

1) EE rule is in effect. For newbies, the NAM used to be called the ETA. The EE rule is that if the Euro and the ETA are in agreement, take it to the bank

2) This also reminds me of the "Larry Cosgrove" storm from about 10 years ago (strongwx/QueenCityWx/Lookout/HKY and others will remember) when he came on the boards and pooh poohed those who argued that the models were underforecasting the CAD based on the position of the high. Needless to say, he hasn't been back to the board since and the entire southeast was crippled.

3) I'm trying to remember a system with such widespread QPF consistently forecasted from a week out -- heck, even in the short term I'm not sure I ever remember 3+" of QPF forecasted with a winter storm. Have to wonder if the models will accurately predict the interaction between that much water and the rest of the atmosphere.

4) Wish I was still up there to be in the thick of things!

  • Like 9
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 3
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, FallsLake said:

As Grit just stated, if there is more ice then I think we get a big storm. If this is a miller a snow/rain storm we may only get that 1" (...then it will wash away). 

I think maybe for the airport and south/east you're right. For me, you and sean who are on the NW fringes of the metro, I feel much better. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, griteater said:

I think though that we are headed in the direction of more of a Miller B or Miller B Hybrid as HkyWx calls it....where that was straight Miller A...so, I would expect much more mixed precip compared to that one, IMO

I'm surprised that even with a strong stj storm with confluence and some blocking we still get a Miller b. I dont know how in the world to get a miller a anymore. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

As Grit just stated, if there is more ice then I think we get a big storm. If this is a miller a snow/rain storm we may only get that 1" (...then it will wash away). 

Yes, I agree.  At this point I feel confident we get the snow at the beginning.  Then it's a matter of how long we hold on to that.  After the transition starts it's going to be close to what that p-type is. Again this is talking from what I've seen lately.  This could easily change in the next 2 days...LOL!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I've seen 2 noticeable trends on the EPS.  First, the 50/50 low has trended stronger and SW, which I think is good.  That's why our high pressure is modeled great and our confluence is keeping the low suppressed in the gulf nicely.  However it seems like once the storm hits the coast, the northern stream energy is phasing and tugging it closer to the coast on the last several runs.  Therefore I still like the threat of a good first thump of snow/sleet, but once the storm is to our south, things may pull north and WAA will take over.  

That's right now.  Hopefully that 50/50 will get keep trending stronger and the northern energy will trend slower to keep this thing south.  

You got it Niner.  Trend loop here on the EPS, including the most recent 06z run.  So the 3 key players are the SE Canada trough (50/50 low), the southern stream wave, and the new shortwave dropping down from the northern stream (in S Dakota on the last image of the loop).  Over time: 1) the 50/50 low has nudged southwest, 2) the model is seeing increased amplitude with the southern wave, and 3) the new northern stream shortwave is now getting more involved, and earlier.  Note the trend of the height rises from Georgia up thru Kentucky.  Height rises = warmer, and a more north solution (warmer aloft that is, not really at the surface where the damming high will do its dirty work).  So, for a more south solution, we'd want to see the SE Canada trough to nudge more to the southwest, the southern stream wave to not be as amped, and to lessen the early involvement of the northern stream shortwave.  The SW VA group would want to see it stay the same as it is now

3LZzuI6.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ripping fatties up in Boone, one of those squall moments just happened. Amazing not just how historic this storm could be for mtn region, but how historic this winter can be for them especially as well as some others in foothills, piedmont.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the 6z NAM, we're clouded over here before Saturday even begins. The more we can limit sunlight that day, the better. With CAD already starting from the high, that could mean temperatures are cooler on Saturday and thus you get a lower wet bulb that evening or night. 

 

and yes, this is a time where I think this could absolutely matter. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Looking at the 6z NAM, we're clouded over here before Saturday even begins. The more we can limit sunlight that day, the better. With CAD already starting from the high, that could mean temperatures are cooler on Saturday and thus you get a lower wet bulb that evening or night. 

Yep, that is definitely going to be key here.  Every little bit will help.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ozmaea said:

Explain how to break that down, does that mean of the 2 inches of liquid what portion would be snow akd etc.??

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Yep... Rain, Snow, Ice, and ZR

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Of all 3 things Grit and Niner alluded to, to me the elephant in the room is holding off the NS  sw as long as we can. Earlier this thing gets wound up back to our west the more its gonna waa up at 5,000ft above our heads. Now when its off the SE coast , it can go to town all it wants and deepen and suck in the cold air up above us on the NW side

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, griteater said:

You got it Niner.  Trend loop here on the EPS, including the most recent 06z run.  So the 3 key players are the SE Canada trough (50/50 low), the southern stream wave, and the new shortwave dropping down from the northern stream (in S Dakota on the last image of the loop).  Over time: 1) the 50/50 low has nudged southwest, 2) the model is seeing increased amplitude with the southern wave, and 3) the new northern stream shortwave is now getting more involved, and earlier.  Note the trend of the height rises from Georgia up thru Kentucky.  Height rises = warmer, and a more north solution (warmer aloft that is, not really at the surface where the damming high will do its dirty work).  So, for a more south solution, we'd want to see the SE Canada trough to nudge more to the southwest, the southern stream wave to not be as amped, and to lessen the early involvement of the northern stream shortwave.  The SW VA group would want to see it stay the same as it is now

3LZzuI6.gif

I said this on the other board, but I've seen these waves coming in off the Pacific show up in the mid-range weak, many times, only to end up verifying stronger when they come ashore.  I think it has to do with sampling.  We'll know pretty soon, but that is going to make a difference, IMO.  Also, I'm wondering if the waves dropping in from up north (strengthening the HP and interacting with the southern stream) are not well sampled yet either?  All of that should be resolved soon, if they are even issues currently.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

This looks more like a slider to me than Miller b

Yea the models have been going back and forth on this, most notably the FV3 and the Canadian. They are more so the hybrids of a bonafide miller b however. I think in the end we see the slider but I do believe once the n/s energy gets better sampled the end result will be more phasing and interaction between the two streams. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I'm surprised that even with a strong stj storm with confluence and some blocking we still get a Miller b. I dont know how in the world to get a miller a anymore. 

Get the northern stream to leave the southern wave alone, move the 50/50 low a little southwest (-NAO would help), and have better pre-storm cold...hang in there, it's early in the El Nino winter

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ensembles have been pretty consistent. Mean keeps showing 3 to 6 for Wake, and the control 5 to 8. I think we get too caught up in the totals sometimes. They don't ever get the totals exactly right. The good thing is they are still showing the potential for a good storm here. Just have to see what actually happens. It's like having a good basketball team that shows potential to get a big win, but it doesn't guarantee they are going to do it.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Not sure how accurate this output is from coolwx.com, but if no sleet were to mix in, in GSO like this image depicts below, this could be the outcome.  But I'm pretty sure sleet will be factor in GSO. prec.png

As long as I have lived in Greensboro sleet has always found away !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.