December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[lj0109]

@Lookout FFC starting to chime in on the FZRA threat around the Athens/Gainesville area that you have been discussing over the last few days: 

[franklin NCwx]

2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Welp, Blue Ridge Parkway is gonna get closed for a longggg time

It stays closed for about 6 months a year on the southern section. 

[msuwx]

FYI.....for those concerned about what wording the RAH NWS uses publicly, you can expect them to really beef up their wording this afternoon. 

[snowbird1230]

3 minutes ago, Wow said:

thru 90 hrs:

Would you mind zooming this out some to show all on NC,E Tennessee,N Georgia?

[Poimen]

Just now, msuwx said:

FYI.....for those concerned about what wording the RAH NWS uses publicly, you can expect them to really beef up their wording this afternoon. 

This sounds like inside info. Am I right? 

[griteater]

10 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

It looks like the 850 low goes way south of us off the coast right? Isn't that in itself a good thing? 

By the way Niner your image is showing surface pressure instead of 850 heights, but with 850mb vorticity

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, lj0109 said:

@Lookout FFC starting to chime in on the FZRA threat around the Athens/Gainesville area that you have been discussing over the last few days: 

They got snow all the way to Atlanta and south. Wow. 

[Jenae72]

2 minutes ago, msuwx said:

FYI.....for those concerned about what wording the RAH NWS uses publicly, you can expect them to really beef up their wording this afternoon. 

Thanks Matthew! 

[Cold Rain]

Ha they're going to beef it up after models come in with a warmer solution.  Still looks to be impactful west of the Triangle, though.

[lilj4425]

Just now, Cold Rain said:

Ha they're going to beef it up after models come in with a warmer solution.  Still looks to be impactful west of the Triangle, though.

Warmer? I thought the Euro got colder???

[DopplerWx]

Just now, lilj4425 said:

Warmer? I thought the Euro got colder???

no, the kuchera snow map moved further northwest in the end. all the stock is on the initial precip being snow then it goes to a mix and rain pretty quickly.

[Cold Rain]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Warmer? I thought the Euro got colder???

The Euro did for some areas, but as you can see from the data over the course of the last 12 hours, generally, we're seeing things like weaker highs, slightly north or closer to the coast low pressures, slightly less of a cold air pus, and of course, the snow maps are starting to respond by showing less snow and/or migrating slightly north and west.  Not really any better trends today for the south and east edges.

[Snow haven]

no one knows what to expect, some models point me at all rain, some with T-1" and then others with 3-4" total snow accumulations. Then there are those facebook post that put out makes that say major accumulation possible in my area. Im just gonna go with the all rain event and be happy that way I don't get my hopes up.

[Rainforrest]

10 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Can anyone spot the escarpment?

Yep

[SnowDawg]

Much better run with the mid level temps than last nights Euro, which I thought looked weird with how they were handled then, especially with the lack of cold in the ULL feature.

[Cold Rain]

Just now, Cold Rain said:

The Euro did for some areas, but as you can see from the data over the course of the last 12 hours, generally, we're seeing things like weaker highs, slightly north or closer to the coast low pressures, slightly less of a cold air pus, and of course, the snow maps are starting to respond by showing less snow and/or migrating slightly north and west.  Not really any better trends today for the south and east edges.

And by the way, this is completely typical for winter weather around here.  North and west zones are favored and should do pretty well.  I believe we've seen peak snowfall maps for this one.  For south and eastern areas, we need to see big time suppression 5 days out.  We go through this every winter.

[audioguy3107]

Fairly surprised at the FFC graphic....haven't really chimed in on this storm since it looked to leave us totally out of the game, at least Atlanta proper around the perimeter.  The new EURO continues support for freezing rain in the typical CAD areas from Gwinnett/Hall county and points north and east.  I'd still like to see what the NAM says by tomorrow afternoon for our area, that should give us a better idea of what the potential is, but if we get a stout NE wind per usual, we usually get down to 31/32 around here.  If by some chance the CAD encroaches earlier for the bulk of the precipitation, then NE Georgia up through GSP is going to be in for one serious ice storm.

[wncsnow]

The simulated radar progressions and locations of the snow/mix/rain on the 12Z euro really matches well with climo

[FallsLake]

8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Ha they're going to beef it up after models come in with a warmer solution.  Still looks to be impactful west of the Triangle, though.

Hey CR, Look at how the 850 temps are trying to move back SW from Canada.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018120612&fh=96

Click 4x back for "Prev. Run"

A few move movements back and we have a much better cold air feed. 

[neilpappas75]

1 hour ago, CADEffect said:

I’m really getting concerned with Iceing issues across Upstate SC. Just curious to know if NAM is a trend or not.  

Honestly NAM is the one model that will consistently account more for the CAD then any other. And I think these warmer models are for that simple fact. It is trying to account for CAD, but it does not know the exact time and how quickly it will set up. If it's too early, it will dry out the air beyond belief. If it's too late, then it wastes moisture and lets the warm air override. Also tricky where and how strong it is. By looking at the models, I don't think there is any way to forecast certain areas as of yet. 

[Brick Tamland]

Euro, UK, and CMC all look good. Not sure why people are saying they are showing less snow. Looks pretty consistent to me. It seems folks just don't want to believe the models because what they are showing is rare here. 

[neilpappas75]

But we need to all get along children. Some of us are just more skeptical because we have been there, and done that. Gotten disappointed too many times. Others still have that child like hope. We are all here for the same reasons, obviously.

[Orangeburgwx]

What time does the 18z NAM run again?

[neilpappas75]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro, UK, and CMC all look good. Not sure why people are saying they are showing less snow. Looks pretty consistent to me. It seems folks just don't want to believe the models because what they are showing is rare here. 

I agree. I have seen some fine tuning, but overall, consistent. 

[Cold Rain]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro, UK, and CMC all look good. Not sure why people are saying they are showing less snow. Looks pretty consistent to me. It seems folks just don't want to believe the models because what they are showing is rare here. 

What??  It's not rare at all for the models to show 6 inches of snow in Raleigh.

[Bevo]

9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

And by the way, this is completely typical for winter weather around here.  North and west zones are favored and should do pretty well.  I believe we've seen peak snowfall maps for this one.  For south and eastern areas, we need to see big time suppression 5 days out.  We go through this every winter.

Imma need one of those sweet Cold Rain maps for clarification please...

[Cold Rain]

5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hey CR, Look at how the 850 temps are trying to move back SW from Canada.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018120612&fh=96

Click 4x back for "Prev. Run"

A few move movements back and we have a much better cold air feed. 

Nice!  Hopefully, that can work itself out before I throw in the towel!

[eyewall]

For triangle folks I am going with a T-1" for Raleigh and 2-5" for Durham. 

[Cold Rain]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Imma need one of those sweet Cold Rain maps for clarification please...

I threw this down yesterday.  Still looks good to me.

[FallsLake]

Just now, eyewall said:

For triangle folks I am going with a T-1" for Raleigh and 2-5" for Durham. 

Think we'll have any issues with ice? NAM at face values would say we have a decent ice event.