BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Only noticeable thing this run on the NAM through 60 is the high is slightly weaker. We've done okay with 1038 many times in the past though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: Only noticeable thing this run on the NAM through 60 is the high is slightly weaker. We've done okay with 1038 many times in the past though. Yeah, has a noticeable impact on dewpoints -- running a couple degrees warmer through NC and Va. All background noise unless it turns into a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: This is gold guys! ORH Wxman is amazing with this stuff when I lived up in the northeast still. Here’s the discussion: This makes so much sense - see below, I guess all options are open. Maybe at long leads we expect too much from the models, even in this day and age IMHO. I brought this over from the New England forum, thanks @ORH_wxman . < The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. Anecdotally, this reasoning seems to come up with every storm, and it doesn't seem like the wave(s) coming ashore leads to big model changes most of the time. Of course, we should expect changes, four days out anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Only noticeable thing this run on the NAM through 60 is the high is slightly weaker. We've done okay with 1038 many times in the past though. Talking about trends earlier, that has been a trend on the NAM. I believe it was 1041 at one time. I don't want to see it continue to drop, that's for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: Yeah, has a noticeable impact on dewpoints -- running a couple degrees warmer through NC and Va. All background noise unless it turns into a trend. HP actually strengthens considerably out to 75 to a 1041 parked in southeastern MN. LP placement still relatively similar to 6z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, rduwx said: Talking about trends earlier, that has been a trend on the NAM. I believe it was 1041 at one time. I don't want to see it continue to drop, that's for sure. It's at 1041 at hour 75 on the 12z Nam, no worries yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: This is gold guys! ORH Wxman is amazing with this stuff when I lived up in the northeast still. Compliments to @North Balti Zen for posting in mid atl forum as well. Here’s the discussion: This makes so much sense - see below, I guess all options are open. Maybe at long leads we expect too much from the models, even in this day and age IMHO. I brought this over from the New England forum, thanks @ORH_wxman . < Makes a hecka of a lot of sense. Those kickers have come to bite us in the past on a few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12z NAM seems to be catching back up to strength (1041) at hour 75. But the push of cold has backed slightly off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Haven't seen this posted yet... here are 6z GEFS plumes for KRDU.. trended up overall with some impressive outliers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 People look for the fly in the ointment. Well it may be starting to show. The high is not as strong and phasing is being modeled sooner. Not sure why anyone in the se wants a phased storm. Though I see people rooting for it every year. That is only good for the MA north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: Makes a hecka of a lot of sense. Those kickers have come to bite us in the past on a few storms. Man I can’t remember how many times it has come down to these coming onshore and all of a sudden there’s some pretty significant swings. Not saying it’s def going to happen but something to keep in the back of our minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Waiting on snow said: People look for the fly in the ointment. Well it may be starting to show. The high is not as strong and phasing is being modeled sooner. Not sure why anyone in the se wants a phased storm. Though I see people rooting for it every year. That is only good for the MA north. the high on the NAM is literally as strong as it's been modeled this entire time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: HP actually strengthens considerably out to 75 to a 1041 parked in southeastern MN. LP placement still relatively similar to 6z position. 4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: It's at 1041 at hour 75 on the 12z Nam, no worries yet. That's good news! At work so can't check models as they're coming out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: People look for the fly in the ointment. Well it may be starting to show. The high is not as strong and phasing is being modeled sooner. Not sure why anyone in the se wants a phased storm. Though I see people rooting for it every year. That is only good for the MA north. Completely wrong! I want a phase! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Confluence on the new nam over new england is the best it's looked yet. It delays the high pressure building a little compared to last run, but leaves more cold air to work with overall. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: the high on the NAM is literally as strong as it's been modeled this entire time. Ashe, the only thing I don’t like that I see is the HP is not sliding in tandem with the system like it was at 6z. Rather at the end of the run it stays locked up around the Green Bay, WI area, whereas 6z had it closer to central IL. If this thing phases earlier it’s going to allow that wiggle room to move further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, burrel2 said: Confluence on the new nam over new england is the best it's looked yet. It delays the high pressure building a little compared to last run, but leaves more cold air to work with overall. The last thing we want is the high to scoot eastward to quickly, so this is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Completely wrong! I want a phase! I should have stated outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Waiting on snow said: I should have stated outside of the mountains. As long as it's not too early and sends the low into Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Confluence on the new nam over new england is the best it's looked yet. It delays the high pressure building a little compared to last run, but leaves more cold air to work with overall. Yep.. pretty big (and nice) differences with DPs compared to the FV3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Confluence on the new nam over new england is the best it's looked yet. It delays the high pressure building a little compared to last run, but leaves more cold air to work with overall. I am very curious what the final outcome of this darn confluence is going to be. It’s been going back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 NAM looks pretty darn good. It's picking up the CAD event at the end of the run. 850's don't look great but nothing to worry about as it won't get a clue until about 40 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Ashe, the only thing I don’t like that I see is the HP is not sliding in tandem with the system like it was at 6z. Rather at the end of the run it stays locked up around the Green Bay, WI area, whereas 6z had it closer to central IL. If this thing phases earlier it’s going to allow that wiggle room to move further north. I'm perfectly ok with that. The thing that worries me, is once it moves East, it's not stopping. So as long as it can be in a somewhat decent position before the storm, that should *SHOULD* work better for everyone comparing to it scooting off too quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12z NAM surface low position at 0z Sunday (84 hours) almost right on top of 0z Euro position at the same time (96 hours) -- both over the south-central La. coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: People look for the fly in the ointment. Well it may be starting to show. The high is not as strong and phasing is being modeled sooner. Not sure why anyone in the se wants a phased storm. Though I see people rooting for it every year. That is only good for the MA north. It often works for northwestern North Carolina, the Triad, and southern/central Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Only noticeable thing this run on the NAM through 60 is the high is slightly weaker. We've done okay with 1038 many times in the past though. Good point Jeremy. If I am not mistaken, we have had plenty of decent storms with a 1038. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Good news is NAM looks like a great setup. Good confluence in the NE. Big energy in TX. Bad news is it's 84hrs on the NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: People look for the fly in the ointment. Well it may be starting to show. The high is not as strong and phasing is being modeled sooner. Not sure why anyone in the se wants a phased storm. Though I see people rooting for it every year. That is only good for the MA north. TOUCHE! I agree!! I would take an OVERRUNNING setup any day over phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: It’s the ewall Franklin gets heavy front end frontogenesis thump look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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