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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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7 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I think the FV3 needs alot  of work. I wouldnt  count  on that considering it seems much worse than the regular GFS.

Snow output is a fool’s errand at this early stage, regardless of the model.  The Euro does show 2-3” liquid equivalent in the same general vicinity which is significant.

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3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I think the FV3 needs alot  of work. I wouldnt  count  on that considering it seems much worse than the regular GFS.

Don't blame the model, blame the algorithm on that site.  Sometimes I think we'd be better without snow maps altogether. The micro details they present distract from big picture trends. 

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Don't blame the model, blame the algorithm on that site.  Sometimes I think we'd be better without snow maps altogether. The micro details they present distract from big picture trends. 

Im in se va and there is  no way im getting  6-10 inches. All rain here.

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2 hours ago, oconeexman said:

Where at? I'm between walhalla and seneca. Man I wish everyone would stop taking these operational runs to heart. We are 4.5 days away..the ensembles are in good agreement. Starting honing in on specifics Thursday night/Friday morning. The few Cad events so far this Fall have been rather stout and stingy to give in. None were over 1040 if I recall correctly. I like Oconee/Pickens/Gville areas getting a nice little event here.

Boiling Springs. Just north of Spartanburg.

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8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

New GFS clown map might be silly but then again so the EUROs output.

Screenshot_20181203-221039_Samsung Internet.jpg

Not sure if you’re familiar with the orographic processes around here but southeasterly upslope up against the mountains creates a ton of lift and enhances rain or snow, depending on the season. Even if it were overdone it’s still mightily impressive. 

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2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

KGSP is still at a 9” mean on the 18z GEFS. KGSO is at 11”. KCLT is at 8”. All dramatic increases since this morning. 

That's crazy honestly, I can't remember seeing means like that at this lead before. Almost all the panels show significant snowfall, although I am sure most of that, at least for CLT and GSP would be mix. Crazier still, is how the op runs have basically left GSP with all rain; how can the op's and ensembles be so different?

Something for everyone to keep in mind, in a setup like this with very marginal cold, timing and placement are the whole show; even more than usual when we have better cold air sources. Speed up or slow down one player, 50 miles here or there for placement,  or a couple mbs of pressure up or down will change the model outputs tremendously; even up till go time. I certainly wouldn't expect it, but it's very possible a nick here or tuck there could change our output back to a colder suppressed look; it wouldn't take a whole lot. Too early to be jumping ship, even though tempered expectations are wise.

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5 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

That's crazy honestly, I can't remember seeing means like that at this lead before. Almost all the panels show significant snowfall, although I am sure most of that, at least for CLT and GSP would be mix. Crazier still, is how the op runs have basically left GSP with all rain; how can the op's and ensembles be so different?

Something for everyone to keep in mind, in a setup like this with very marginal cold, timing and placement are the whole show; even more than usual when we have better cold air sources. Speed up or slow down one player, 50 miles here or there for placement,  or a couple mbs of pressure up or down will change the model outputs tremendously; even up till go time. I certainly wouldn't expect it, but it's very possible a nick here or tuck there could change our output back to a colder suppressed look; it wouldn't take a whole lot. Too early to be jumping ship, even though tempered expectations are wise.

This was posted in the MA forum alluding to the same

BF16AF8D-8CE2-4002-B3D8-6293035DF0E0.png

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18 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Not sure if you’re familiar with the orographic processes around here but southeasterly upslope up against the mountains creates a ton of lift and enhances rain or snow, depending on the season. Even if it were overdone it’s still mightily impressive. 

I do, just pointing out over 3" LE as snow. That's insane. 

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