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December Banter 2018


George BM

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I’m confident we will get all the teleconnections and MJO in line in mid March. Just in time for us to get a cool and rainy spring. Should be epic for NY on north. Just not in the cards for me this year. I truly relish the 25 wet mangled flakes that I received in early December. I’m thinking a shutout for me is in the cards. But each day - I still check the models w fresh hope. You know what they say the definition of insanity is.  

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Going into and moving thru this winter so far has been like a hopeful sport team at the beginning of the season. Let's compare this winter to I dunno, the Redskins.

At the start of the season, there are high hopes abound.....the slate is clean, the air is fresh, the sky is the limit. And everything looks fantastic on paper (historical modoki el Nino climatology). The season gets off to a fast start (November snows for some) and next thing you know you're ahead of expectations (Redskins in first place!!). Your nearby division rivals that historically perform better (in football and snowfall climatology) find themselves slipping away fast (Philly and NY....screw Dallas). Things look promising and the schedule looks favorable (500mb pattern) moving forward. What could possibly derail this destiny??

But then things start to unravel....your star QB breaks his leg (MJO), losses start piling up (crud Atlantic blocking), your backup QB goes down (SSW underperforms).....postseason hopes look bleak (mid Jan epic pattern flip). Then, in the blink of an eye, what looked like unchartered territory with likely January playoff football (promises and hope for the pattern change) are gone. How could this be?? Everything was lined up perfectly. But alas....we've been down this road before with this football team AND with broken promises of epic weather pattern changes.

Moral of the story....things always look great on paper at the start of the season but dont always pan out the way we would have hoped due to unforeseen circumstances. Oh, and we do fail very well and very often. :devilsmiley:

 

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15 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Going into and moving thru this winter so far has been like a hopeful sport team at the beginning of the season. Let's compare this winter to I dunno, the Redskins.

At the start of the season, there are high hopes abound.....the slate is clean, the air is fresh, the sky is the limit. And everything looks fantastic on paper (historical modoki el Nino climatology). The season gets off to a fast start (November snows for some) and next thing you know you're ahead of expectations (Redskins in first place!!). Your nearby division rivals that historically perform better (in football and snowfall climatology) find themselves slipping away fast (Philly and NY....screw Dallas). Things look promising and the schedule looks favorable (500mb pattern) moving forward. What could possibly derail this destiny??

But then things start to unravel....your star QB breaks his leg (MJO), losses start piling up (crud Atlantic blocking), your backup QB goes down (SSW underperforms).....postseason hopes look bleak (mid Jan epic pattern flip). Then, in the blink of an eye, what looked like unchartered territory with likely January playoff football (promises and hope for the pattern change) are gone. How could this be?? Everything was lined up perfectly. But alas....we've been down this road before with this football team AND with broken promises of epic weather pattern changes.

Moral of the story....things always look great on paper at the start of the season but dont always pan out the way we would have hoped due to unforeseen circumstances. Oh, and we do fail very well and very often. :devilsmiley:

 

I agree with most of the comments above.   I charted Baltimore snow since 1954 when Baltimore received more than 1.1" in November.   Although none of the analog years feature a December and January shutout, February and March perform OK.  When it snows in a Baltimore November, we get a bookend winter with snow on the ends and less Dec-Jan.

 

baltosno.jpg

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So we have a SSW event in progress that will apparently have little to no "favorable" impact on the troposphere, and it is acting as positive feedback for the ongoing MJO pulse, essentially mitigating atmospheric response to a weak Nino. This is like the winter weather weenie version of f**cking up a steel ball.

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