WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, purduewx80 said: I've seen countless instances where a jet was not initialized properly until it was sampled on the West Coast...specifically while living and forecasting in the Midwest. Because of the way models are initialized, there is rarely going to be an instantaneous change in the modeling given new obs, which is why the trends are important to watch. I am curious to see whether the introduction of higher-res GOES-16 and GOES-17 data changes this. Good to know, thanks. Totally agree with your point on trends and GOES 16+17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 It's going to be slower, but I don't see any reason this run doesn't impact us with the way it looks through 150. Heh...famous last words. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 180 looks good - Ji's prayers at church appear to be working 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 It’s coming North...temps might be an issue due to the delayed onset. At 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It's going to be slower, but I don't see any reason this run doesn't impact us with the way it looks through 150. Heh...famous last words. I am not going to say it is going to be good... but you can see the northern and southern energy is more aligned at 150 on the H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: This GFS run will probably be squashed Good call 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Delayed but not denied it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I really like the upper level support on the gfs. Hit or not, that aint even close to weak or sheared... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 A little different at h5..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I’d be concerned if this thing looked like a sheared out mess...H5 looks better for sure. A sheared out SW doesn’t seem likely given what we’d expect in a Nino (I think).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 It's a hit...of course not as good as the 12z/0z from yesterday, but I'm happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The only thing keeping the gfs from having a huge 1-2 punch is the confluence to the NE. I'd take my chances with that h5 progression no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 GFS is a beatdown. 992 right over ORF. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Whoa..198 is a shellacking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 198 is the money panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 993 off ORF...CCB cranking over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Having the SLP over ORF in that setup isn't really a good sign for eastern MD across the bay. Would be a lot more worried about precip type this run. Though It is a huge step in the right direction from the suppression depression from 06z this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I just don’t love the evolution. It keeps slowing down and instead of a more West to east storm that gets nearly everyone in the game on the 40 lat line across the country, now it has to turn the corner a lot more. Just my opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 The thing is so damn slow that the airmass is pretty stale when it gets to us. Still (barely) cold enough for a mauling, but I'd rather it get here Saturday-Sunday instead of Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Talk about a slow down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Not a bad look at 180 at 500s. That should draw the low up the coast somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 192h has 998 low at mouth of the bay. Precip shield looks underdone to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I just don’t love the evolution. It keeps slowing down and instead of a more West to east storm that gets nearly everyone in the game on the 40 lat line across the country, now it has to turn the corner a lot more. Just my opinion Yes but by it slowing down... it allows the interaction with the northern stream more... like I said... you can see that to begin on panel 150 of the H5 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 186 looks decent. I think that red is actually heavy snow. If so then first time I have seen that virtually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: The thing is so damn slow that the airmass is pretty stale when it gets to us. Still (barely) cold enough for a mauling, but I'd rather it get here Saturday-Sunday instead of Monday. The WAA piece gets squished with confluence. Minor changes and the waa slug gets here no problem. The slowdown is the stone wall of confluence too. Can that change in 6 days? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I really like the upper level support on the gfs. Hit or not, that aint even close to weak or sheared... Northern s/w phases into our southern s/w. GFS has done that a few times, which has mostly resulted in our cutter solutions. But if you combine a phase with enough confluence and cold air to the north, you get this. Lot's of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Can that change in 6 days? Lol Nope, locked in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The thing is so damn slow that the airmass is pretty stale when it gets to us. Still (barely) cold enough for a mauling, but I'd rather it get here Saturday-Sunday instead of Monday. Yes...it needs to start 24 hours earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: DC and PSU land TBD, but man, that's a great run for much of southern and western VA. Me being fringed at this range is a good thing. When I say I don't want to see suppression I mean I don't want to see some weak arse 1015 low limping uselessly out to see off Jacksonville and no precip north of Raleigh. We want it a little south. You definitely want me to be fringe city right now. I just don't want to be seeing it target the Carolinas. A central VA Jack is a good look right now imo. This run has my endorsement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, peribonca said: 192h has 998 low at mouth of the bay. Precip shield looks underdone to me Exactly. I will take my chances with a 992 over ORF anytime. We all know the long range models struggle with the precip shield. It happens every single storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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