December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MillvilleWx]

In the grand scheme of things, this was a pretty good run. If you are JUST looking to get snow, it might be a little too close for comfort, but if you want a big storm, this is how you do it. We've seen countless times in a progressive flow that energy misses phases and we end up with weak systems that can get squished in setups like this. Now, if you slow everything down on the other hand with the confluence to the north as progged, this allows for the N/S and S/S vorts to work more in tandem. If anyone remembers the H5 evolution to some of our biggest storms, a slow down beyond the Mississippi can bode well for phasing prospects. It's all a give or take. I don't think you could've asked for much more than what the GFS just delivered. Some colder air, sure, but man, that's a pretty solid evolution if you ask me. 

[Herb@MAWS]

Looks like showtime would be in late Sun/early Mon time frame (192 thru 198).  Can we pls speed that up by 24 hours or so?  Don't like those delayed arrivals.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Me being fringed at this range is a good thing. When I say I don't want to see suppression I mean I don't want to see some weak arse 1015 low limping uselessly out to see off Jacksonville and no precip north of Raleigh. We want it a little south. You definitely want me to be fringe city right now. I just don't want to be seeing it target the Carolinas. A central VA Jack is a good look right now imo. This run has my endorsement. 

That’s good enough for me.  When you are ok with fringe then we should all be able to relax.  It all comes down to h5 and that looked many ticks better than 6z.  

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Also, I'm proud that we've gone this far into the run without someone posting a weenie map 

Dam, and I was just ready to hit submit. 

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not a bad look at 180 at 500s. That should draw the low up the coast somewhat.

but you can also see the ULL north of the lakes that to my eye prohibiting that shunts this off ENE instead uf NE.  

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For this one I think I'd be concerned a lot more with suppression than cutting. Question for you: it seems to me that we'd want some sort of phasing to take place, if for no other reason than to slow this down and allow for a less progressive event? I kinda like the trend. 

 

Eh, I don't know.  A phase just as the low is getting to ORF can help stall the storm and let us rip for days.  But can also pull it too far west.  Lots of different scenarios and moving parts here.  But it's encouraging that we still get snow in many of the scenarios.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I just don’t love the evolution. It keeps slowing down and instead of a more West to east storm that gets nearly everyone in the game on the 40 lat line across the country, now it has to turn the corner a lot more. Just my opinion 

I agree. There is some to like about this run. Better upper level support and a stronger wave. But what you mentioned is potentially problematic. For as much miller a worship around here our truly big ones are often stj a/b hybrids where the initial wave comes up west of the apps on a SW to NE trajectory. We have a big fail history with storms that slide east under us then need to do a sharp turn up the coast. A lot more can go wrong with that. But...it's still 7 days out. A lot will evolve. And I'm being really picky here it's still a pretty good setup and I'm comparing it to our absolute ideal hecs setup which isn't exactly fair. More to like then dislike this run but I do agree with the specific criticism you had. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, peribonca said:

192h has 998 low at mouth of the bay. Precip shield looks underdone to me

That's a typical gfs error. One reason I don't sweat being fringed at range. Don't worry about it. 

[pasnownut]

if you are looking for consensus, the CMC has rather similar look at surface evolution of the storm.  

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Eh, I don't know.  A phase just as the low is getting to ORF can help stall the storm and let us rip for days.  But can also pull it too far west.  Lots of different scenarios and moving parts here.  But it's encouraging that we still get snow in many of the scenarios.

It's definitely a setup where playing chicken might be involved. In any case, if the GFS was a little warm, like it tends to be at range, in the thermal department, this is would be straight wreckage. I'd take my chances with an evolution like that. I also like the S/S short being more energized on its trek across the country. I have no idea what went on with that 6z run. Hopefully just a minor bump in the long windy road that is Mid Atlantic snowstorms

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Could be my weenie filter, but that vort map at 198 looks similar to Jan 2016. Anyone else sort of seeing that?

[NorthArlington101]

Could be my weenie filter, but that vort map at 198 looks similar to Jan 2016. Anyone else sort of seeing that?

[aldie 22]

So what you're saying is this run is different from 6z which was different from 0z and this run?

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Could be my weenie filter, but that vort map at 198 looks similar to Jan 2016. Anyone else sort of seeing that?

Yes.  A Warner version.  I see where you would need obscene rates to keep the column cold enough.  But what the heck it looks fun regardless. 

[psuhoffman]

Here we go twitter throwing around goat storm analogs

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I also like the S/S short being more energized on its trek across the country. I have no idea what went on with that 6z run. Hopefully just a minor bump in the long windy road that is Mid Atlantic snowstorms

Agreed.  EPS has trended weaker, but hopefully it will come back stronger again today as well.  FV3 certainly isn't weaker so far this run vis-a-vis previous runs...

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So what you're saying is this run is different from 6z which was different from 0z and this run?

Actually they're all the same. This is just a figment of your imagination

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The pattern looks much better, shot after shot of cold air. That's what really matters 8 days away. It looks good! +PNA

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Here we go twitter throwing around goat storm analogs

Look at the end of the gfs run. Lol. Exactly what I described could happen with a crap pac and AN heights across Canada. I still strongly believe we'll hit a shutout pattern starting sometime next week but the solution made me chuckle. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at the end of the gfs run. Lol. Exactly what I described could happen with a crap pac and AN heights across Canada. I still strongly believe we'll hit a shutout pattern starting sometime next week but the solution made me chuckle. 

You've been talking about that evolution for about...oh..two weeks now...you should go with it. No real warmup plus snow chances

[midatlanticweather]

15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So what you're saying is this run is different from 6z which was different from 0z and this run?

All is clear as mud. But in all seriousness, this stuff is what makes the hobby fun and frustrating at the same time. Nothing is set until the day after the storm. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

This GFS run will probably be squashed 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You've been talking about that evolution for about...oh..two weeks now...you should go with it. No real warmup plus snow chances

Unfortunately the AO is pretty ambiguous going into Dec so we'll have to wait at least 2 weeks before we know how that's going to go down. If no progress by Dec 15th then tack on another couple weeks and we might know something. Well, something other than wondering about hitting climo snow on the year. We should be above by then. 

[caviman2201]

FV3 stuck? 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at the end of the gfs run. Lol. Exactly what I described could happen with a crap pac and AN heights across Canada. I still strongly believe we'll hit a shutout pattern starting sometime next week but the solution made me chuckle. 

Yep... we have had some snow events that way in crap patterns in nino years. Get the trough near Alaska to pull back just enough and southern branch to cut under the ridging and we can get something to work in that pattern. Won't be cold but so what. We aren't going to run the table cold all winter. If our relaxes come with snow threats that's a sign of a great year!

[JakkelWx]

We get fringed on the 12z FV3

[Bob Chill]

F3 is good enough. Nice upper level support and stalls the slp just off Hatteras. Another model not showing a weak/sheared/suppressed solution. 

[Bob Chill]

12z gefs shifted with the op (shocker) but still a lot of spread with timing and track. Better than 6z tho. 12z isn't really bringing any clarity other than moving away from a weak/sheared outcome. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

F3 is good enough. Nice upper level support and stalls the slp just off Hatteras. Another model not showing a weak/sheared/suppressed solution. 

Yea I'll endorse it also. Some of our excellent mets were discussing how there are different reasons for suppression and they aren't all equal. Seeing a weak pos system with no upper support would be way more problematic than just needing a system like this to gain a tiny bit more latitude. Besides stepping away from the surface plots for a minute...I can easily see room here for some north correction.  

[MillvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I'll endorse it also. Some of our excellent mets were discussing how there are different reasons for suppression and they aren't all equal. Seeing a weak pos system with no upper support would be way more problematic than just needing a system like this to gain a tiny bit more latitude. Besides stepping away from the surface plots for a minute...I can easily see room here for some north correction.  

Yeah. I was looking at that as well. A little sharper trough and shift the ridge axis out west a bit more toward Idaho and it's a crushing in the MA. I can't see too many complaints on that run. I'm in agreement though with the strength of that southern short. If that remains feeble, it's pretty much a done deal.