yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: say what? how is this south of us You went from 16" on 00z to 2" on 12z.. as you usually say that sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 the STJ Sw was not as robust....was the biggest issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Only one model now gives us snow basically now that Canada f'd up. Time to see what the HIV3 gives us FV3, you mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the STJ Sw was not as robust....was the biggest issue and a strung out mess. hence the loss of vertical push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 That ULL pushing it to Maine shut the door coming up further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: just means everything is now within a certain envelope...now it's just fine tuning the details. Congrats C-Ville or Raleigh Yeah, the spread has narrowed, closing in on probably about where we should have expected it to. Looks like DC might be the northern fringe, or close to it. Up here we're hoping for some systematic model bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the STJ Sw was not as robust....was the biggest issue There were enough good things in that run to keep me entertained a while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Fozz said: Maybe south of psuhoffman, but it's a legit storm from DC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, cae said: Yeah, the spread has narrowed, closing in on probably about where we should have expected it to. Looks like DC might be the northern fringe, or close to it. Up here we're hoping for some systematic model bias. its still too early to be throwing in the towel. imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS wasn't a total disaster. Let's hope its more well-liked sibling shows up with the goods again. The concern for me about the CMC is it was a significant step back. Definitely more south and east, and I generally expect the CMC, especially in the medium-to-long-range, to be overly amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 LOL at the changes in the NS...so the gfs lost the weaker NS vort that it was diving down all the way to Boston but replaced it with a much stronger one over Maine...the result a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There were enough good things in that run to keep me entertained a while longer. Agreed. Consolidate the LP and it should be able to push further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: just means everything is now within a certain envelope...now it's just fine tuning the details. Congrats C-Ville or Raleigh Well we missed entirely earlier this year. 33F and rain (a couple pingers too) in November. Maybe now we actually get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: LOL at the changes in the NS...so the gfs lost the weaker NS vort that it was diving down all the way to Boston but replaced it with a much stronger one over Maine...the result a wash. the gfs seems to just throw random sht in the NS every run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Multiple issues. The delay keeps letting the GFS rotate a lobe down into Maine to suppress. Meanwhile the kicker in the northern plains ruins the SS sort by stringing it out. One run. So many pieces to resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, H2O said: Multiple issues. The delay keeps letting the GFS rotate a lobe down into Maine to suppress. Meanwhile the kicker in the northern plains ruins the SS sort by stringing it out. One run. So many pieces to resolve. Lots of moving parts. If all things equal in the GFS 12z and that lobe was 100 miles north, DC would be in the game. Good, early test of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, mappy said: its still too early to be throwing in the towel. imo. I agree. Especially from this range. We've seen the models collectively adjust one way or another with 5+ days to go. Hopefully we get some more support in the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 there is no way Greenville SC is getting 8-12 inches of snow in Dec 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 hopefully the 12z GEFS members and mean will nudge a bit more to the N/NE compared to the 06z GEFS members/mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: there is no way Greenville SC is getting 8-12 inches of snow in Dec 8th Paging @isohume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 is it me or did someone break the new toy? I'm stuck at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, yoda said: hopefully the 12z GEFS members and mean will nudge a bit more to the N/NE compared to the 06z GEFS members/mean why did you post this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Well, FWIW, DT still likes the 6z FV3 solution more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Paging @isohume I lived there for a while. Every winter storm threat (which was rare) ended up becoming a major fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Ji said: why did you post this? Because I felt like it... and wanted people to know lol why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: is it me or did someone break the new toy? I'm stuck at 36 It has been crawling all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 you know it's a legit snow threat when Ji starts getting punchy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Well, FWIW, DT still likes the 6z FV3 solution more. Of course... it gives him over a foot and its better than the terrible no good GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's going to be depressing if the old GFS scores better than the FV3 on this storm possibility, once all is said and done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: is it me or did someone break the new toy? I'm stuck at 36 FV3 takes a while to come out... no matter what the run (00z/06z/12z/18z) Jumped to 66 hrs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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