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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather

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It's early, lots of sensitive interactions between northern and southern streams. My sense, the EC big warmth next week is wrong (Jan 7-11). Too much downhill flow in Canada, plus southern streamers continue and probably pretty good snow cover from somewhere nrn PA through much of NYS into northern central New England, making it easier maintain shallow cold. (a half foot or more increase possible over that of this Dec 30th morning.) Obvious wait and see but EC is very good at holding onto closed lows southern stream, but i tend to doubt its ensemble outlook week two, whereas GFS i think is reading a correct potential for phasing northern and southern streams around Jan 8-9, s of Nova Scotia.  Should be an interesting period 1/3-11.  Btw,  the 00z/30 EC  ensembles are a little faster than then the 00z EC op. GGEM/NAEFS is slower than the GFS, and am guessing Jan 4 Long duration comma head event, if I'm reading this right. 06z/30 GEFS is coming around big time to an extensive 1/2" or greater w.e. event.  Yes, probably too warm NYC,  but not very far nw of I95...its going to be an interesting week of potential substantial snows Jan 4 and 8ish.  Another event ensemble ~ Jan 12. So, the trough has been in the east since last July.  Means, if it can, it will precip but la/lo northern fringe always in doubt.  Am thinking we're good for 1/2" our more qpf 12/31, 1/4 and 8 ne PA-NNJ north to at least I-90.  Finally: just a comment on FV3. I have checked on this: to my knowledge here in the ne USA, i dont see it as an improvement on the current GFS model.  I am told in 2020, FV3 will be a significant improvement. Meanwhile unsure of FV3 implementation date. wd 8AM

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9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Light snow in wantagh

We were even able to avoid a shut out with the 50 degree December 2015. Luckily, we only had one goose egg this decade in December 2011.

2018 T 2
2017 7.7 0
2016 3.2 0
2015 T 0
2014 1.0 0
2013 8.6 0
2012 0.4 0
2011 0.0 0
2010 20.1 0
2009 12.4 0
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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We were even able to avoid a shut out with the 50 degree December 2015. Luckily, we only had one goose egg this decade in December 2011.

2018 T 2
2017 7.7 0
2016 3.2 0
2015 T 0
2014 1.0 0
2013 8.6 0
2012 0.4 0
2011 0.0 0
2010 20.1 0
2009 12.4 0

1882-83 had 14" in November and none in December...then about 30" the rest of the winter...

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Don’t forget to slant stick, sliding the ruler through your deck helps too, I managed 5.5” using that method.  On the snowboard though it’s .4”

4F499E6E-C2EB-495D-9694-F79665121FB8.jpeg

You don't just measure snow that way.  The correct way is to take an average of more than one measurement.  In this case you should have recorded 2.95".  An even more accurate way would be to have taken a third measurement with the stick slanted in the opposite direction, add the 3 measurements and divide by 3.

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