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Zelocita Weather

December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

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Seems to me that if there's no WAR then systems will move W>E and as long as we're on the north side then we see a string of nickel and dime events and it stays sort of cold to very cold. I don't see how there can be cutters if there's no mechanism to send systems from south to north (whether they're east or west of us). 

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57 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

As I've been reading on Twitter from Crankyweatherguy; Strong Pacific zonal/split flow across the country, no WAR equals cutters and no real cold air in the east. Hopefully pattern breaks around the second week of December.

Crankyweatherguy lol. Stopped following him after Hurricane Michael.

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Just a 40% to 50% chance of at least 3" of snow by the 13th. on the ensemble, and that is for a grid point north of NYC. 

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Good thing they mention only a relaxation of the pattern, not a flip.

Verbatim that’s a flip. But I would expect this with a developing nino pattern. Also, following the trend of recent years a back loaded winter seems like the game plan. The question is when exactly. 

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14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Verbatim that’s a flip. But I would expect this with a developing nino pattern. Also, following the trend of recent years a back loaded winter seems like the game plan. The question is when exactly. 

Wasn't that the original call anyway? Warm December followed by cold and snowy particularly February?

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19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wasn't that the original call anyway? Warm December followed by cold and snowy particularly February?

Yup, my call at least. Always best to follow recent trends and overall atmospheric state. That screams backloaded winter 

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Just saw MR G on tv. 

he is really digging a big storm Tuesday & Wednesday next week.

mentioned to early for a call rain or snow etc.

his map had a mix for western nj into the Hudson valley.

he was pumped up!

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26 minutes ago, Animal said:

Just saw MR G on tv. 

he is really digging a big storm Tuesday & Wednesday next week.

mentioned to early for a call rain or snow etc.

his map had a mix for western nj into the Hudson valley.

he was pumped up!

Right now the models are showing that as a warm rainy storm. I don't know what G is seeing to make him think it could be a cold storm, and to put up a mix map this early is absurd. Cold does come in behind that storm. Should get pretty cold late next week. Hopefully that cold will set us up for a storm, before we go back to a warmer pattern again around the 10th.

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18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Right now the models are showing that as a warm rainy storm. I don't know what G is seeing to make him think it could be a cold storm, and to put up a mix map this early is absurd. Cold does come in behind that storm. Should get pretty cold late next week. Hopefully that cold will set us up for a storm, before we go back to a warmer pattern again around the 10th.

He should've retired 10 years ago

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

He should've retired 10 years ago

He is terrible, but of course there are quite a few terrible weathercasters in this area. The only ones I like are Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith, Nick Gregory and Craig Allen.

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Why so hard on this guy? Everyone in this business knows that the forecasts are mostly wrong.

It is only rarely that the clouds part and the forecaster nails it. He could be right in this instance, if so, I hope people will step up and recognize that.

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2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Right now the models are showing that as a warm rainy storm. I don't know what G is seeing to make him think it could be a cold storm, and to put up a mix map this early is absurd. Cold does come in behind that storm. Should get pretty cold late next week. Hopefully that cold will set us up for a storm, before we go back to a warmer pattern again around the 10th.

I posted this yesterday and just looked again now---The FV3 sees that storm colder for the interior maybe that is what G is looking at ? Its a week off and I trust no models this far out but its there on the FV3

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3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

He is terrible, but of course there are quite a few terrible weathercasters in this area. The only ones I like are Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith, Nick Gregory and Craig Allen.

Couldn’t agree more. This is the media capital of the country so why can’t you have personality and real degrees like those guys. Other then them it’s a bunch of personality’s. And while we are on the topic I cannot stand Dr Navarro on the TWC. She is so damn choppy it’s incredible, almost gives Amy freeze a run for her money.

Back on topic, I really like the massive snow pack building to our north. That’s going to help with locally generated cold barring a major melt down. 

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14 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wasn't that the original call anyway? Warm December followed by cold and snowy particularly February?

Yeah 2014-15 was a main analog so I dont get why people get so antsy if we have a mild December especially since we already had a 6 inch snowstorm so we're ahead of the game.

I'll be happy with one event in December like what we had in November.

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5 hours ago, etudiant said:

Why so hard on this guy? Everyone in this business knows that the forecasts are mostly wrong.

It is only rarely that the clouds part and the forecaster nails it. He could be right in this instance, if so, I hope people will step up and recognize that.

Yeah he has been on the post 5th pattern for awhile now.

This is a fundamentally inexact science so no person is going to be "right" all or even most of the time.

 

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7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Right now the models are showing that as a warm rainy storm. I don't know what G is seeing to make him think it could be a cold storm, and to put up a mix map this early is absurd. Cold does come in behind that storm. Should get pretty cold late next week. Hopefully that cold will set us up for a storm, before we go back to a warmer pattern again around the 10th.

He should have stuck with that because earlier he had just been saying it would get colder, nothing about a storm.

You can easily have a cold pattern with very little snow, we've seen that several times before.

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