December Discussion

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I suspect its going to be one or the other....either they phase and its a major storm mid week, or the n stream may incite something itself closer to the next weekend, which looks more likely on the EURO. Looks like Tips compressed geopotential medium may be an issue, though...shred city.

Eps loves both storms 

[weathafella]

5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Were you around here in 68 69

Upstate NY.  Came home for the Lindsay storm but the 100 hour storm later in February had me back in Ithaca where not much happened.  However I knew what was going on in Boston and it kind of solidified my decision on the next phase of my education...lol.

[moneypitmike]

15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tit for tat?

Makes me think of Dennis Miller:  "what is tat, and where can I find more of it"?

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

Sweet. Enough snow to cover up all of the rusted cars on blocks.

LOL--with murdered bodies in the trunk.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro is closer.

Man, the PV lobe really wants to play ball this time, but the timing is just off.

Yea, it’s gotten closer. The ridge has gotten more favorable and if the initial sw can slow down some. Has potential for you and points NE.

[CoastalWx]

Not sure if PV will get involved giving how far apart it is currently, but all ensembles look better than the op runs.

[CoastalWx]

6z GEFS looked squashed verbatim.

[weathafella]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z GEFS looked squashed verbatim.

However that was a pretty big improvement in the 11-15. We’ll see if it’s a real trend or off hour hiccup....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

However that was a pretty big improvement in the 11-15. We’ll see if it’s a real trend or off hour hiccup....

Nice to see AK blocking overtake the vortex that quickly. Raymond ftw.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snowy next 10 days minimum after Sunday Rainer 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

However that was a pretty big improvement in the 11-15. We’ll see if it’s a real trend or off hour hiccup....

The GEFS more or less have been showing GOAK trough vs AK black hole. That isn’t great usually here but can be ok farther interior. We shall see.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GEFS more or less have been showing GOAK trough vs AK black hole. That isn’t great usually here but can be ok farther interior. We shall see.

Also, running 24 hour height differences on eps we have some warm colors in that region.   Point is it probably won’t be the sky is falling disaster some have worried about.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I was looking at the 0z gfs which showed the block. 0z and 6z gefs still has low heights. 

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS really bombs the Tuesday night storm

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS really bombs the Tuesday night storm

We will need the NW members to verify, the mean is pretty far SE. Still a few days to bring it back NW.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We will need the NW members to verify, the mean is pretty far SE. Still a few days to bring it back NW.

Seems like a nice advisory event pike south at a minimiun . Hopefully the NW members continue the trend 

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like a nice advisory event pike south at a minimiun . Hopefully the NW members continue the trend 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure if PV will get involved giving how far apart it is currently, but all ensembles look better than the op runs.

Yea, I would bet against a blockbuster, but we should see a decent snow between the two potentials...just a hunch.

[EastonSN+]

Still in the COD. Where it emerges anyone's guess.

 

 

[moneypitmike]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We will need the NW members to verify, the mean is pretty far SE. Still a few days to bring it back NW.

Good look for the fishes with that spread.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The GEFS more or less have been showing GOAK trough vs AK black hole. That isn’t great usually here but can be ok farther interior. We shall see.

Why confused @Zach’s Pop

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Here is the day before the Blizzard struck on Saturday, January 22nd, 2005 12z 500mb analysis.  H5 analysis of the GEFS mean shows a similarity in the H5 fields.  H5 ridging out west is further amplified than 05, the -AO vortex is in a similar position with a -NAO ridge, edging into central Greenland, the surface low should edge southwestward some in later guidance.

James ... there are glaring differences between these two ... just to help you out.

I sense that you may be identifying just the locations of (+) and (-) nodes in your comparison, and then leaping to passionate conclusions (heh, so to speak..). If so, that approach is not seeing crucial aspects with the interstitial relationships/limitations in between those nodes.  It's alright. Folks don't come along with that knowledge necessarily built into their filters, so don't take this as chiding.  

First and for most, ...the flow is too fast in the lower panel.  Look over Old Mexico to Bermuda: when you see that entire axis is in a 'laminar' construct ....with lots of isotachs smashed together and smooth, that means the flow is highly compressed. Compression = high velocity.  You don't want that ... A January 2005 redux would intrinsically require a slower field, which if you look at the geopotential height gradient tapestry of that top panel, the flow is much slower  ... key: outside of individual wave/spaces/impulses identifiable in the flow, the winds are lighter.  That aspect is important for both slowing systems down .. giving them time and space to maximize.   Another way to think of it: the total torque budget of the system is conserved at the S/W scale...and not borrowed by torque already used up in L/Ws ... screaming along like Jovian wind bands - mind you...I'm speaking in hyperbolic terms there, but just to help visualize the point.

Secondly, the individual wave spacing/morphology is not even in the same ilk really, even if the flow of the lower panel were slackened off...  Wrt to the targeted impulse in your comparison, I'm assuming to be the fast open-wave structure over the lower Ohio Valley area, vs the compact(er) mechanics diving through Wisconsin of the top.   It "might" be that the structure of the S/W is different partially due to the compression differences ... but, open wave mechanics in a progressive field isn't really in the same ball-park of cyclogenesis type --> evolution.  Point being ... you can have open waves in weaker overall gradients and vice versa.  There is a bit of mastery in knowing/learning to recognize which wave structures are 'heading' toward a negative/closure, but.. the baseline requirement is not having over say... 80 kts of wind outside of S/W spaces. 

Having pointed that out... yes, you can have powerful flat waves in high velocity saturation that create fast moving robust storm ... They snow prodigiously along < 500 mile wide corridors... Essentially, Dec 2005, or November 1987 are variants of that...But those are not analogs for Jan 2005.    

Another aspect/difference, which is more systemic in nature:  Notice that 'hook' low you see just west of California? Commonly referred in met parlance as an "outside" slider (yes there are 'inside' sliders, but both function similarly), that feature is a positively feed-back to the compression E of the 100th latitude(s). It's existence in space and time ... by exhausting latent heat down stream of it circulation, that is helping to rise heights from Texas throughout the Gulf/Florida and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin.  The flow down there can have elevated heights anyway, but the hook look is only adding to that circumstance. 

There may be other limiting factors, but these in total make analog ratio between those two charts, very far from 1

[Damage In Tolland]

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

??

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

??

You are telling us the worst case scenario (i.e. "at a minimum") is an advisory event south of the pike....so if the max number of things that can still go wrong between now and Dec 5th go wrong, then S of pike still gets advisory snow.

 

Sounds incredibly optimistic.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You are telling us the worst case scenario (i.e. "at a minimum") is an advisory event south of the pike....so if the max number of things that can still go wrong between now and Dec 5th go wrong, then S of pike still gets advisory snow.

 

Sounds incredibly optimistic.

Dude - you can't penetrate that mind with logic ...  Oh, it has the capacity, but is deviantly on a PR campaign since circa 2004

[40/70 Benchmark]

At minimum its partly cloudy north, south, east and west of the pike.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You are telling us the worst case scenario (i.e. "at a minimum") is an advisory event south of the pike....so if the max number of things that can still go wrong between now and Dec 5th go wrong, then S of pike still gets advisory snow.

 

Sounds incredibly optimistic.

With all the support it’s got .. it seems a high probability event . Odds seem to favor even more improvements based on what we’re seeing on guidance . Is it a lock at day 5.. of course not. But a snow event seems likely 

[dryslot]

This one could fish just as easily, At least there are a couple systems in that period that could possibly produce, Pretty early to determine placement and track though.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You are telling us the worst case scenario (i.e. "at a minimum") is an advisory event south of the pike....so if the max number of things that can still go wrong between now and Dec 5th go wrong, then S of pike still gets advisory snow.

 

Sounds incredibly optimistic.

Well he did exactly that, so you would respond as you did..with a correct explanation, and not a Wishcast as he likes to.   

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Rev really needs a good pike S event to keep his spirits up

James is such a snow lover it would be incredibly depressing to just imagine having to wait 6 weeks longer than the majority of the region to see Snow, the only way James sees the reality of snow in  Harwich is if he moves and then seeing the Harwich climo won’t be as depressing 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With all the support it’s got .. it seems a high probability event . Odds seem to favor even more improvements based on what we’re seeing on guidance . Is it a lock at day 5.. of course not. But a snow event seems likely 

There's some wave spacing issues with that threat. Hopefully it pans out, but there are plenty of issues with it as it stands. GGEM shows a partial phase with N stream which would definitely make it a threat, but the shortwave on it's own has some work to do.