dendrite Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: With a Quebec High, I say there can be and will be storms of the future and present that will surprise us. That didn’t answer my question. You seem invested in the pattern for yourself over the next 10 days. From the Chatham COOP I see Nov 89 as the only storm over 6” through 12/10, going back to the 70s, and that had a colder airmass in place compared to anything modeled right now. Dec 82 was a biggie for you as well but it occurred 12/12-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Few are worried about a mild period before the solstice. Having snow in December in nino years is generally a good sign. Right. I don’t get the angst of having a break. It happens, especially in December. Hopefully it’s not a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pete says hi says west Berks got hit hard all day. His p8c from home. 6 plus yesterday today. Classic Dec sky Sweet. Enough snow to cover up all of the rusted cars on blocks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: That didn’t answer my question. You seem invested in the pattern for yourself over the next 10 days. From the Chatham COOP I see Nov 89 as the only storm over 6” through 12/10, going back to the 70s, and that had a colder airmass in place compared to anything modeled right now. Dec 82 was a biggie for you as well but it occurred 12/12-13. Yeah it’s very difficult to get snow this early greater than 6”. He should know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s very difficult to get snow this early greater than 6”. He should know that. Flying into Logan 24 hours after the snow stopped in the 12/5/03 event that I got stranded in Dallas for. Had to connect at LGA so the flight ran just off the SNE south coast and cut up the canal. Left of the plane deep cover. Right of the plane looking at the cape mostly bare ground. It was striking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Flying into Logan 24 hours after the snow stopped in the 12/5/03 event that I got stranded in Dallas for. Had to connect at LGA so the flight ran just off the SNE south coast and cut up the canal. Left of the plane deep cover. Right of the plane looking at the cape mostly bare ground. It was striking. Wow that's cool. That was a beauty of a storm. I'm definitely intrigued in the 7-12 day stretch coming up. Normal caveats of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s very difficult to get snow this early greater than 6”. He should know that. While normally I would agree with you about the odds, but the pattern supports a rather robust storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sweet. Enough snow to cover up all of the rusted cars on blocks. IDK perhaps its pretty though at that golf course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Flying into Logan 24 hours after the snow stopped in the 12/5/03 event that I got stranded in Dallas for. Had to connect at LGA so the flight ran just off the SNE south coast and cut up the canal. Left of the plane deep cover. Right of the plane looking at the cape mostly bare ground. It was striking. I along with my late daughter her boyfriend ( who ironically passed a couple of years after from an accident)shoveled well into the night then tobogganed down our hill road. Nothing was moving. Special memory. I need to dig up the pics from that night. 20 inch falls weren't as common then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: While normally I would agree with you about the odds, but the pattern supports a rather robust storm Odds are it would be mostly wet and windy for you. Just trying to be a realist here. It’s still very early for your climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: While normally I would agree with you about the odds, but the pattern supports a rather robust storm It will still give you mostly rain though or low ratio advisory snow. Nothing wrong with advisory snow but don't expect 6+ that early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: While normally I would agree with you about the odds, but the pattern supports a rather robust storm I’m not talking about a robust storm. But you need to take a hard look at things and ask yourself if your expectations are too much. If you want to be taken seriously, you really should look hard at the situations and take our advice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Mood snows off and on since yesterday morning. Even sticking to the driveway and walkway. Wintry appeal I feel good about next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Gefs look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 It's an active pattern... I'll give y'all that. "robust storm" ? Mmm, depends on what one thinks of as robust. 3-6" .... 4-8" okay. Gradient saturation isn't good - oh, it's sweet on paper to see all those lines on the charts, But when you see that the ambient geostrophic wind speed is concomitantly blowing at ludicrous speeds where you have the line densities ...And with too much balanced wind speed like that, S/W's tend to be fast movers ... limiting embedded cyclogenesis - albeit that doesn't mean none. Thing is, ...that is all true, but doesn't mean your backyard can't lollypop its way to 12+ is a meso band with CG .. .I just mean your not getting hornet sings on the chart. And the big dawg numbers are rarefied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Mood snows off and on since yesterday morning. Even sticking to the driveway and walkway. Wintry appeal I feel good about next week. I'm just down the road a piece along Rt poop and haven't seen a flake... It's definitely raw'er 'n' holy hell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Why don't you guys think a robust storm is possible, am I the only one who thinks the pattern evolving for the 5th is tremendous? It is the same pattern that developed the Blizzard of 05, again I think 6"+ is attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why don't you guys think a robust storm is possible, am I the only one who thinks the pattern evolving for the 5th is tremendous? It is the same pattern that developed the Blizzard of 05, again I think 6"+ is attainable. I urge you to put the H5 pattern of 2005 next to the H5 pattern progged for 12/5 and see if they are indeed comparable. I haven’t checked but it doesn’t strike me as similar from memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I urge you to put the H5 pattern of 2005 next to the H5 pattern progged for 12/5 and see if they are indeed comparable. I haven’t checked but it doesn’t strike me as similar from memory. No comparison. He Needs to wipe his snow goggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 LOL and James craps on everything I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm just down the road a piece along Rt poop and haven't seen a flake... It's definitely raw'er 'n' holy hell though. Yeah, at work in Leominster it was doing nothing, but around the Gardner/Westminster line started to see snow. A slight coating here now that it is dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL and James craps on everything I said. You guys have been very patient explaining it to him and then bam, next post is 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah, at work in Leominster it was doing nothing, but around the Gardner/Westminster line started to see snow. A slight coating here now that it is dark. Snowed in KTOL all day the girls said. But only a dusting since was like 33-34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why don't you guys think a robust storm is possible, am I the only one who thinks the pattern evolving for the 5th is tremendous? It is the same pattern that developed the Blizzard of 05, again I think 6"+ is attainable. Pump the brakes James...it’s not the Dawn Awakening, or Jan of 05 either. C’mon pal, you’re better than this...aren’t you??? See where this this goes over the next few days in the modeling, before you pop a neuron thinking you’re gonna get a significant snow event. The odds are stacked way against you at this early date...that’s all people are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Pump the brakes James...it’s not the Dawn Awakening, or Jan of 05 either. C’mon pal, you’re better than this...aren’t you??? See where this this goes over the next few days in the modeling, before you pop a neuron thinking you’re gonna get a significant snow event. The odds are stacked way against you at this early date...that’s all people are saying. Ok, I will pump the brakes. Or try too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ok, I will pump the brakes. Or try too. Just do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just do it. Ok, Scott. Other than climate, what is keeping Cape Cod from getting snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Place it in park, And shut the key off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ok, Scott. Other than climate, what is keeping Cape Cod from getting snow? It's climo. The water is in the U40s. You'll need a very cold airmass and verbatim I don't see it yet. At least for all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's climo. The water is in the U40s. You'll need a very cold airmass and verbatim I don't see it yet. At least for all snow. Oh yeah, all snow is a possibility still, but not some snow seems likely, at least the GFS produces several inches of snow on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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