CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Depends upon what time you are talking about Scott about the low heights in places we don't want them. December 5th pattern looks mighty fine. I think I said after the first week a bunch of times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think I said after the first week a bunch of times. Oh I wasn't sure that still implied with your latest post. Do you think the GFS is onto something for the 5th, or is the CMC right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh I wasn't sure that still implied with your latest post. Do you think the GFS is onto something for the 5th, or is the CMC right? Perhaps the 9th too. But, I'd be foolish to lock anything in right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Perhaps the 9th too. But, I'd be foolish to lock anything in right now. very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Our classic words Scott? "Something ain't happening James?" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Our classic words Scott? "Something ain't happening James?" Quick update, closing in on 7" in Williamsville and still borderline +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Both the GEFS and EPS have low heights in areas where we don't want. I think some of you are taking advantage of legalized weed. Until then, we have a couple of threats through first week of December. That aspect hasn't changed. And to clarify because I see some hyperbole around, it's not a furnace that people are calling for...it looks like a relaxation where it could turn milder. When is the relaxation posed to occur?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 25 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: When is the relaxation posed to occur?? Probably post 12/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Still moving to the COD per GEFS. Looks like a centipede. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Not sold... The three month trend is rife with faux leads of big warm ups in the Week 2's + and they're having trouble verifying. The big one to end Novie and wring in Dec is now no longer than a mere warm sector push that's all of a 36 hours. I need to see that present sort of era scaled verification tendency show a different error before I bite on this next warm up... Like I was saying to Will or whomever that was, it almost strikes me as a pattern "lost signal" more than a real one for pattern change (or even relaxation).. If it comes to pass that these latter attributes reign correct, than Ok - my feelings won't be hurt but I need more than what I'm seeing. Granted, the teleconnector hard numbers as they stood, as of yesterday morning, were flagging a PNA flatline, along with the break-down of -NAO .. But, as far as the American cluster, they also contained a 7 day stint of -EPO... beginning 3 to 5 days and ending near Dec 5 or 7th ... Moreover, the EPO handling tends to falsely rise in the extended... I've noticed this more often than not, in past recent winters (going back some 5 year's worth) ...where a -EPO always slopes toward neutral or even positive, but subsequent nightly processing lowers each daily values gradually. Supposition at this/that point in discussion, but I'm willing to take a flyer on the length of this EPO. FWIW, the Euro swaths a ginormous mass of loaded, sub -20C air in the 850 mb products growing in mass from D7 thru 10 of the operational, which is a pleasing fit for a -EPO interval. I'm a fan of cross-guidance hand-shakes... such as the GEF's sagging the EPO while the operational Euro cold loads Canada. Pattern may (or may not) bring that mass down in modified forms and intervals, but that cannot be ascertained at this range... particularly when the Pacific is a mess and lacks a coherently canvased wave spacing. But should Alberta-western Quebec - Nunavut size mass of < -20 C 850 air pan out... you can't feel comfortable going balmy at this proximity to that hemispheric circumstance ... We've been beaten over the head in recent years why the EPO is probably the more important November to early April factor in mid latitude, temperature anomaly distributions... Someone may read this and get excited for winter? don't! I'm not here claiming cryo Hades on Earth ... I'm just saying that I'm not impressed with the recent verification so far on extended warm ups, and given that, and some of these modeled fields.. I have decent enough reasons to doubt December is really anything at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: When is the relaxation posed to occur?? May not be one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh ..this is a support group, period. Really, may as well meet on Tuesday nights from 7 to 9 pm, where people raise their hands and discuss their addiction. Truth be told, there are strict forums out there where the contribution is purely analytic/theoretical, and is borderline referee-able right out of the type. The climate in those is about as chilly as the collective here wishes the winter is... Content changes relatively infrequently, with gaps in participation extending weeks at a time. And much of it is unreadably dry We are not that, here. Wow I am impressed Welcome to the Camp, I guess you all know why we're here My name is Tippy And I became aware this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wow I am impressed Welcome to the Camp, I guess you all know why we're here My name is Tippy And I became aware this year I've always known this... You just don't like it when I've taken the temerity to point it out... by choosing to get defensive about it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sold... The three month trend is rife with faux leads of big warm ups in the Week 2's + and they're having trouble verifying. The big one to end Novie and wring in Dec is now no longer than a mere warm sector push that's all of a 36 hours. I need to see that present sort of era scaled verification tendency show a different error before I bite on this next warm up... Like I was saying to Will or whomever that was, it almost strikes me as a pattern "lost signal" more than a real one for pattern change (or even relaxation).. If it comes to pass that these latter attributes reign correct, than Ok - my feelings won't be hurt but I need more than what I'm seeing. Granted, the teleconnector hard numbers as they stood, as of yesterday morning, were flagging a PNA flatline, along with the break-down of -NAO .. But, as far as the American cluster, they also contained a 7 day stint of -EPO... beginning 3 to 5 days and ending near Dec 5 or 7th ... Moreover, the EPO handling tends to falsely rise in the extended... I've noticed this more often than not, in past recent winters (going back some 5 year's worth) ...where a -EPO always slopes toward neutral or even positive, but subsequent nightly processing lowers each daily values gradually. Supposition at this/that point in discussion, but I'm willing to take a flyer on the length of this EPO. FWIW, the Euro swaths a ginormous mass of loaded, sub -20C air in the 850 mb products growing in mass from D7 thru 10 of the operational, which is a pleasing fit for a -EPO interval. I'm a fan of cross-guidance hand-shakes... such as the GEF's sagging the EPO while the operational Euro cold loads Canada. Pattern may (or may not) bring that mass down in modified forms and intervals, but that cannot be ascertained at this range... particularly when the Pacific is a mess and lacks a coherently canvased wave spacing. But should Alberta-western Quebec - Nunavut size mass of < -20 C 850 air pan out... you can't feel comfortable going balmy at this proximity to that hemispheric circumstance ... We've been beaten over the head in recent years why the EPO is probably the more important November to early April factor in mid latitude, temperature anomaly distributions... Someone may read this and get excited for winter? don't! I'm not here claiming cryo Hades on Earth ... I'm just saying that I'm not impressed with the recent verification so far on extended warm ups, and given that, and some of these modeled fields.. I have decent enough reasons to doubt December is really anything at this point. It definitely wouldn't surprise me if the mild period underperforms mid-month. I'm not an expert by any means on the week 3/4 type stuff, but it seems like there is a relatively short window for us to torch...if we somehow "prolong" the cold because we get a weak EPO block that holds off the AK vortex from establishing itself by 3-4 days....then by the time it is able to move in, the hemispheric pattern is starting to become hostile to an AK vortex and perhaps we only see a brief mild period (say, less than 7 days and relatively modest positive departures) before the next ridge builds out there...that is a scenario I could see happening. There will obviously be idiosyncrasies within the pattern we can;t predict....if we get a PV planting close by in Quebec, that could also keep New England in the cold longer than, say, the northern plains. Or on the flip side, we get an unfortunate phasing event to our west and we get a cutter right before the mild period...that could usher in the mild period sooner than otherwise. Who knows. But all else equal, it does have the feeling that since this cold season has started in mid October, we overperform the cold and underperform the warmth. Sometimes we just have seasons that act that way....and of course, we've seen plenty of seasons that do the opposite...the cold underperforms at least excuse imaginable while a goose fart from the Ozarks gives us 3 days of 50F in January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wow I am impressed Welcome to the Camp, I guess you all know why we're here My name is Tippy And I became aware this year Here comes Uncle Ginxy to chastise you, For being a QPF queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, larvay said: Here comes Uncle Ginxy to chastise you, For being a QPF queen. Lars with the drive by in his semi. Hey is the beast open and are you back in town or out in Laredo Texas hitting up the Mexican restaurants? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've always known this... You just don't like it when I've taken the temerity to point it out... by choosing to get defensive about it - Woah dude, I love it. I remember when you basically wanted this place to be sci.geo.meteorology.edu. Glad to see you have accepted us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Both the GEFS and EPS have low heights in areas where we don't want. I think some of you are taking advantage of legalized weed. Until then, we have a couple of threats through first week of December. That aspect hasn't changed. And to clarify because I see some hyperbole around, it's not a furnace that people are calling for...it looks like a relaxation where it could turn milder. Still in the 11-15 where it’s been for a week. I think the eps finally moved it up to d12. Getting closer by 1 day per week. At this rate it’s here by March. J/k...I realize we’re going to relax but how much and how long? It doesn’t seem like one of those vortices that sit there for a year allowing us snow when it gets up to take a dump before coming back to the chair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: "... Moreover, the EPO handling tends to falsely rise in the extended... I've noticed this more often than not, in past recent winters (going back some 5 year's worth) ...where a -EPO always slopes toward neutral or even positive, but subsequent nightly processing lowers each daily values gradually. Supposition at this/that point in discussion, but I'm willing to take a flyer on the length of this EPO. " Sorry if the self-quotation comes off in bad taste but, the new EPO numbers were just updated on CDC's site from overnight, and they did exactly what this statement above surmised/implied they might... The previous night's computation had this signal neutralizing closer to Dec 7 ...now we see it arrive extended to 10...AND, depthier. To re-iterate the 00z Euro's operational notion of pooling continental syrup in Canada is still out there, as a plausible cross-guidance lurking signal... Curious what the 12z looks like - EPS for that matter. At this point, at least in so far as the GEFs are concerned, I have a problems with any warm assumption with this look below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Nice snow event for new England on the gfs for the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Probably post 12/10. I think I had it begin in mid December when I did the write up a few weeks ago...suspect it could push back a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nice snow event for new England on the gfs for the 5th Probably a couple of significant snow events in sne during the month of December...we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Interior favored, huggers/late developers continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 That system on the 5th is showing up on different models for a few consecutive runs now. Best chance for something for the time being. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Interior favored, huggers/late developers continue. Ukie and cmc aren't a hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Ukie and cmc aren't a hugger Late developers and huggers are mutually exclusive more often than not, and this will likely apply this season, as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie and cmc aren't a hugger He’s interior . He’s gonna snow. He lost the Quebec low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Late developers and huggers are mutually exclusive more often than not, and this will likely apply this season, as well. Depends on alot of factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie and cmc aren't a hugger You ride model solutions, I look big picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Depends on alot of factors "Late" developer inherently develops relatively far to the east, so unless the trough goes quickly negative, its not going to swing due north or nnw bodily into MA. This last system was not a late bloomer....it was a re developer, which can be more problematic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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