December Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

IF we want to maximize Dec 5th potential, root for a slower/stronger system ejecting out of the southwest between D4/5....it will allow the system ahead of it to clear out and give it a little more room to amplify.

[WinterWolf]

The first system next week could easily be a miss...we see the issues with it now becoming evident.  Hopefully things come together for a decent event...that'd be a nice thing for the area.  But as Will and others have pointed out...this has some work to do.   Let's see how modeling goes today...hopefully moves in a more positive direction..

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

IF we want to maximize Dec 5th potential, root for a slower/stronger system ejecting out of the southwest between D4/5....it will allow the system ahead of it to clear out and give it a little more room to amplify.

Slower ejection reduces timing issue relative to PV lobe, as well...but that is a long shot.

[ORH_wxman]

Here's a comparison of the 00z Euro and the 00z GGEM....the GGEM was really amped and had a system that actually brought ptype issues to southern areas while the Euro was basically a whiff, maybe a few flurries or light snow to the Cape. But you can see the big differences out in the middle of the country and rockies....deeper and slower system out there on the GGEM versus the Euro.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Weird, the image doesn't animated when I attach....not sure why.

 

edit: fixed it

[Ginx snewx]

Our boy Eddie up in Nova Scotia getting blasted by the NNE snowstorm gone wild.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We ride the cmc.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Our boy Eddie up in Nova Scotia getting blasted by the NNE snowstorm gone wild.

 

It says Newfoundland though...where is he?  Newfoundland or Nova Scotia?  Did he used to be on American Wx?

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a comparison of the 00z Euro and the 00z GGEM....the GGEM was really amped and had a system that actually brought ptype issues to southern areas while the Euro was basically a whiff, maybe a few flurries or light snow to the Cape. But you can see the big differences out in the middle of the country and rockies....deeper and slower system out there on the GGEM versus the Euro.

 

Bingo and that’s what some of the snowier members show. Sometimes you do get these improvements, but it could see shred and wait until offshore to get together. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It says Newfoundland though...where is he?  Newfoundland or Nova Scotia?  Did he used to be on American Wx?

Eddie goes wayyyyyy back. WWBB, EUSWX, etc. From Philly, but got his degree at Plymouth. Like many, was once a weenie on the forums, but became a knowledgeable met.

[Typhoon Tip]

Brian country may want to consider a > negligible icing scenario between 65 and 80 hours.   And I'm not sure how far S in CNE that may extend too, as even in the higher resolution models, if an ageo. trajectory kicks in and has a llv cold sourcing that will tend to terminate premature (latitude) in the models for any valley regions/and/or E of the ridge lines.   

[dryslot]

Sunday looks to start out a wintry mix up here as well before the transition.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Brian country may want to consider a > negligible icing scenario between 65 and 80 hours.   And I'm not sure how far S in CNE that may extend too, as even in the higher resolution models, if an ageo. trajectory kicks in and has a llv cold sourcing that will tend to terminate premature (latitude) in the models for any valley regions/and/or E of the ridge lines.   

NAM (and Euro hints too) shows a mesolow going right by us out ahead of the main primary in the lakes...prob too warm for much ice in SNE...but any thought of 50s on Sunday is completely wiped out in that look....30s/low 40s and even maybe falling temps around BOS with the cold tuck.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

NAM (and Euro hints too) shows a mesolow going right by us out ahead of the main primary in the lakes...prob too warm for much ice in SNE...but any thought of 50s on Sunday is completely wiped out in that look....30s/low 40s and even maybe falling temps around BOS with the cold tuck.

yup... llv slosh back as the initial warm advection momentum renders off to the E... pulling rotted polar right back down...  Question is, ...is it 41, 37, 32.1, or 31 type air.  Pick one but ...yeah, could/probably would be the 37-41 during 'tuck' after maybe having ticked 43 ... blah blah welcome home. 

As the whole baggage lifts out though we may return flow Monday and be rather balmy comparatively prior to deeper CAA.   

Agreed... good day for football and drape closing on Sunday for SNE but there is time of course...just speculative.  

[dryslot]

From blizzard to flizzard on the 12z GGEM for the 5th.................

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

From blizzard to flizzard on the 12z GGEM for the 5th.................

Needless to say models are struggling in this timeframe.  Stay tuned and remember the date...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

From blizzard to flizzard on the 12z GGEM for the 5th.................

Well now we know the threat has a chance. 

[dryslot]

Needless to say models are struggling in this timeframe.  Stay tuned and remember the date...

I certainly don’t want the GGEM leading the way, Very familiar with the time around the 5th.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Improvements on the gfs with a slower more spaced out lead wave, fwiw.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

pv lobe is delayed though, no dice.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

pv lobe is delayed though, no dice.

We don't need to the PV to get something decent.....

[OSUmetstud]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Our boy Eddie up in Nova Scotia getting blasted by the NNE snowstorm gone wild.

 

This was run of the mill for here in eastern NL  Didn't even gust to 55 KT at yyt. Cape Breton Highlands is getting the best of this one. 

[Ginx snewx]

Never had a great feeling about the 5th but that's still about a week out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Never had a great feeling about the 5th but that's still about a week out. 

I don't feel great either, but one of them will probably produce something..

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

This was run of the mill for here in eastern NL  Didn't even gust to 55 KT at yyt. Cape Breton Highlands is getting the best of this one. 

Apparently 

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't feel great either, but one of them will probably produce something..

Absolutely

[OSUmetstud]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Apparently 

 

Yeah. This is from our climate consultant at the office. 

My parents live on the Bras d’Or Lakes about a mile from the Seal Island Bridge (where Wood has an RWIS station). They sent me the attached pictures this morning of the storm surge and related flooding and damage they are currently experiencing. The winds are northeasterly, meaning they are funneling down through from the open ocean, resulting in a direct hit on their property.

 

The water is about 3-4 feet above the high-water mark – the highest we have ever seen it since our family bought the property in the 1960’s. It has washed out cribbing along the shore that my dad and I installed when I was 12yo (not yesterday but it’s held up pretty well until now). We have been reinforcing the shoreline with large granite boulders over the past few years, which seem to be holding up, but a lot of the shoreline is still exposed and inundated about 15-20 feet inland (more in some places). And the winds are expected to continue at least throughout the day.

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah. This is from our client consultant at the office. 

My parents live on the Bras d’Or Lakes about a mile from the Seal Island Bridge (where Wood has an RWIS station). They sent me the attached pictures this morning of the storm surge and related flooding and damage they are currently experiencing. The winds are northeasterly, meaning they are funneling down through from the open ocean, resulting in a direct hit on their property.

 

The water is about 3-4 feet above the high-water mark – the highest we have ever seen it since our family bought the property in the 1960’s. It has washed out cribbing along the shore that my dad and I installed when I was 12yo (not yesterday but it’s held up pretty well until now). We have been reinforcing the shoreline with large granite boulders over the past few years, which seem to be holding up, but a lot of the shoreline is still exposed and inundated about 15-20 feet inland (more in some places). And the winds are expected to continue at least throughout the day.

 

Damn

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Needless to say models are struggling in this timeframe.  Stay tuned and remember the date...

Yup ...in short, exactly. 

A slightly longer version...Will touched on this earlier but there is a lot of negative wave interference in the D 3.5 to D8 time range.   It could certainly play out that way... however, just note (for the general reader) these impulses are currently being sampled outside of the physical sounding grid - Sat and other extrapolation/interpretive methods are very good but they don't tell the truth necessarily; a fact we sometimes see play out when events "get lost" only to come back.   Sampling is a bit of a separate issue...the wave spacing could be handled better with better sampling (perhaps.) .

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah. This is from our climate consultant at the office. 

My parents live on the Bras d’Or Lakes about a mile from the Seal Island Bridge (where Wood has an RWIS station). They sent me the attached pictures this morning of the storm surge and related flooding and damage they are currently experiencing. The winds are northeasterly, meaning they are funneling down through from the open ocean, resulting in a direct hit on their property.

 

The water is about 3-4 feet above the high-water mark – the highest we have ever seen it since our family bought the property in the 1960’s. It has washed out cribbing along the shore that my dad and I installed when I was 12yo (not yesterday but it’s held up pretty well until now). We have been reinforcing the shoreline with large granite boulders over the past few years, which seem to be holding up, but a lot of the shoreline is still exposed and inundated about 15-20 feet inland (more in some places). And the winds are expected to continue at least throughout the day.

 

 

The hyperbolic commentary is cute in that ... how does wind "funnel" across "open ocean"  - nice. 

But yeah, almost scary lookin' ... cold deathly N. Atlantic November witch water engulfing the land...