December Discussion

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

EURO is showing a faster phase between the two streams for the 12th, as the coastal low comes closer and the H5 trough phases in, this could get interesting in the next 72 hours.

There isn't any cold air around

This is going to be rain for everyone

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some thoughts going forward....pretty much as planned, but too bad this storm isn't working out.

Bad luck.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/deceptive-early-season-respite-november.html

Could be another backloaded winter (Jan 20 onwards) OR could be that winter gets going in the last week of December?

 

[moneypitmike]

I think this has become the worst discussion thread of all time--certainly the worst during the cold season.  

Carry on.

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Could be another backloaded winter (Jan 20 onwards) OR could be that winter gets going in the last week of December?

 

It begins week of Dec 20. White Xmas and it’s loaded from there on out 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some thoughts going forward....pretty much as planned, but too bad this storm isn't working out.

Bad luck.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/deceptive-early-season-respite-november.html

Ray continues to rake!  Nailing this season to date.

[Hoth]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I've never seen a group of weenies so resistant to this hiatus. It's an interesting look into the mind of a weenie. 

I think a lot of folks, having heard some very bullish winter forecasts over the last few months, expected '95-'96 to stroll through the door. Their expectations were initially affirmed with that first robust snow in November, so to go on a month long hiatus (at least in SNE) has been a stinging taste of reality. Best to take it in stride. I always remind myself that the best winter periods in my life (Jan '11/Feb '15) were preceded by prolonged dry or blowtorch periods. And I've never seen a winter without at least one relaxation period. 

[LurkerBoy]

I still don't think the relaxation will be anything memorable and that we'll have a below avg December that fires up again around the solstice/Festivus. We've had solidly below avg temps for over a week and nobody seems to care. 

[dendrite]

lol...you can barely find 0C 850s in the US the last 3-4 days of that euro op run.

We get a perfect H5/H7 low track on that next weekend storm on the GFS, but the temp profiles look like a typical October storm.

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

I still don't think the relaxation will be anything memorable and that we'll have a below avg December that fires up again around the solstice/Festivus. We've had solidly below avg temps for over a week and nobody seems to care. 

Who said the relaxation would be memorable? No one said record heat. We probably have a good week plus of well above normal though. I just peeked at MEX guidance and I have d6/7 mins up here coming in warmer than my average high.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

lol...you can barely find 0C 850s in the US the last 3-4 days of that euro op run.

We get a perfect H5/H7 low track on that next weekend storm on the GFS, but the temp profiles look like a typical October storm.

Just finding ways to poo on us. Need to reshuffle the deck. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Boone webcam

1-2 feet expected there

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/king-street-boone/

Ginxy woke up to soaked sheets and slightly tented pajamas.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just finding ways to poo on us. Need to reshuffle the deck. 

Most of Canada is flushed of cold as well. One would assume even when it is reshuffled, it is going to take a good week to rebuild some of the cold. It wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't take until closer to New Years to get "better"...

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ginxy woke up to soaked sheets and slightly tented pajamas.

I just printed these obs and buried them with the ark of the convenant.

http://uswx.com/uswx/text.php?h=24&stn=Ktnb

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some thoughts going forward....pretty much as planned, but too bad this storm isn't working out.

Bad luck.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/deceptive-early-season-respite-november.html

Bad luck or not, the pattern has been stormy.  I mean SNE missed another Warning criteria storm in late November by like 50-100 miles that crushed NNE.  That storm was a lot closer than Boone, NC.  

There have been a lot of events the past 4 weeks that could've worked out much differently but there have been plenty of threats it seems.  

Now we relax and winter tries again later.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Most of Canada is flushed of cold as well. One would assume even when it is reshuffled, it is going to take a good week to rebuild some of the cold. It wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't take until closer to New Years to get "better"...

Agree. 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Most of Canada is flushed of cold as well. One would assume even when it is reshuffled, it is going to take a good week to rebuild some of the cold. It wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't take until closer to New Years to get "better"...

idk...we'll see. The really deep cold is kinda flushed out of Canada, but it doesn't take much to start building those frigid shallow airmasses this time of year. I haven't looked much beyond d10 other than what has been posted here so if we get that -EPO dump west of us, cutter, and then advect some modified cold back our way we start to get back into the game. We'll be pushing the winter solstice so much of our region can work with marginal cold with the right storm track. It takes special puke to give us all rain with a track under our fannies.

[dendrite]

Lots of happy Christmas shoppers. Hopefully they play some John Mayer at your local outlet mall. Maybe around 1pm, some shoppers work up a bit of a sweat and actually slide up the sleeves of their hoodies to let a little of that sunny warmth kiss their skin and hair follicles?

Fathers be good to your daughters.

[Zach’s Pop]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Lots of happy Christmas shoppers. Hopefully they play some John Mayer at your local outlet mall. Maybe around 1pm, some shoppers work up a bit of a sweat and actually slide up the sleeves of their hoodies to let a little of that sunny warmth kiss their skin and hair follicles?

Fathers be good to your daughters.

And here is your pride and joy EPS for 12/24

[dendrite]

-6C 850s for Christmas eve. Wow. Looks epic.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said:

And here is your pride and joy EPS for 12/24

And no one is canceling winter or even the end of December for that matter. Maybe if you're good Santa will bring you some mountain torque in your stocking.

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lots of happy Christmas shoppers. Hopefully they play some John Mayer at your local outlet mall. Maybe around 1pm, some shoppers work up a bit of a sweat and actually slide up the sleeves of their hoodies to let a little of that sunny warmth kiss their skin and hair follicles?

Fathers be good to your daughters.

Lots of 40’s in that pattern

[NorEastermass128]

VA and NC getting the goods. Pretty jealous

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

VA and NC getting the goods. Pretty jealous

CLT got hosed, look at those 16 plus , nice

[weathafella]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I hear you about cities- they're stressful and not healthy.  My blood pressure goes down 30 pts and I sleep much better at night when I'm out in the country with no light pollution and fresh air.  Flagstaff AZ is supposed to be one of the healthiest cities in America.

Densely packing a bunch of humans into a small space isn't healthy for us or for the environment.

Maybe for you?  Not supported in a general statement 

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304793504576434442652581806

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe for you?  Not supported in a general statement 

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304793504576434442652581806

Thanks. This idea that rural living is healthier is hogwash. Regardless of the pros and cons of each, It’s all about what you make of it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro isn't showing much of anything that is in sync with the hopes and dreams of our beleaguered winter-seeking warriors, actually.

In fact, ... extending the metaphor, it's really trampling on the backs of the wounded - so the opposite. 

Between ~ D6 and D10 ...when we were supposed to be maximizing this 'relaxation' or 'warm up' or whatever rationalization is presently used to offer delusion over despair ...  the only thing stopping that period from being an out and out inferno (relative to seasonal norms for December ides), is that vestigial whirlpool filling it's slow death.

Remove that from one's mind's eye and you're left with a huge sprawling ... very warm ridge in the charts.

There's sort of a wrong-way-rub in there: warm-weather enthusiasts are getting screwed, too.  That could otherwise be a spectacular late season Indian Summer. Unfortunately ... one being significantly tainted by that offset factor.

HO, man... I always love it when the models (sometimes even 'the weather') f's over everyone, equally.  What that circumstantially achieves is banality, specifically targeting individuals who engage in this ... compulsion to the prospective excitement and cinema of the models.  ...Somewhere in there, there's even an interest in weather, too. Heh. 

 

 

 

[weathafella]

Looks like Charlotte got under an inch.   Asheville got a good snow....at least 6-10...maybe more.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thanks. This idea that rural living is healthier is hogwash. Regardless of the pros and cons of each, It’s all about what you make of it. 

Depends on the context there ...

If we mean axis to public/social services rural locations tend to lag.

If we mean background, environmental toxicity ... rural areas are better.

These distinctions are also thick with subordinate categories/sciences therein.

Public/social services range quite a bit, from the general distribution of basic necessities that are provided via "the industrial food complex," (rife with it's own issues/offets), to access medical/health services and so forth. These standards do vary somewhat between rural and city ways-and-means of life, more than merely negligible at times. 

Of course, this is also an evolving ... the "access." With technology changing awareness scopes, and to some extent physic response times...  society its self is changing - perhaps fast enough that this conversation could be moot in 20 years (if some holocaust doesn't neutralize the smoldering survivors back to pre industry first).

But still, a town out in northern Nebraska may endure a plague for a considerable length of time longer than NYC ...before making the national news and/or an appropriate response is engineered.  

Stress in rural areas is less.   

It's complex... there's pros and cons to either.   Probably... like everything, somewhere in between there is a narrow zone of habitability where benefits from organics and wholesome holistic living, has access to state of the art in medicine ... and social needs and conscience intangibles, poaching favorable life-style from both mediums.   

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

5 hours ago, Snow88 said:

There isn't any cold air around

This is going to be rain for everyone

Talking about the mid week system.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

That southern stream upper-level low is moving quickly northeastward, not eastward not southeastward, it has yet to reach the suppression jet, and if it even reaches that, I think it can still impact further northward.