USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I say this with all the respect in the world, but you know models don’t determine storm tracks, right? Wow, nah really. I am not an idiot. The storm tracks could be impacted by the arctic shortwave and how it is sampled in the next three days. That will help determine our phasing potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Models are always playing catchup to my imaginery pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Next weekend fellas, and ladies....next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You know it only takes one cycle of model runs to change the course of this system. It's not just about the models. Models are a tool. Take a look at the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's going to be a lot of angry weenies if everyone goes 0-2 before the mild break hits. Anticipated, didn’t like this period. The mild up will likely offer more chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Anticipated, didn’t like this period. The mild up will likely offer more chances At sun bathing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: At sun bathing? Milf bathing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Booty bathing Fetish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Anticipated, didn’t like this period. The mild up will likely offer more chances I've never understood people getting angry over the weather. Afterall none of us have any control over the weather. As we both realize SNE can have some great winters and some winters which are terrible for those of us who enjoy cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Fetish? Best part of the female, or male, anatomy to fetish over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Best part of the female, or male, anatomy to fetish over. Her Skywarn tatoo???? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I am just saying, that don't be surprised to see changes once both energies get sampled at a much higher clip once they reach the sample sites in Canada and the west coast of the US. The southern stream system is approaching the west coast now, that will get sampled on a much larger scale in the next 12 hours, and the arctic jet stream shortwave will set the standard for this storm system, especially if it digs much more than what guidance shows. I predict the 12z EURO today or 00z tonight will change with regards to the southern stream shortwave. That is where the models change their ideas of the atmospheric makeup when shortwaves become better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Fetish? Round , w some thickness softness but not blub the Rev has to work on his glutes, lots of atrophy from distance running for years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I've never understood people getting angry over the weather. Afterall none of us have any control over the weather. As we both realize SNE can have some great winters and some winters which are terrible for those of us who enjoy cold and snow. Weenie strong Pro mets can't tell us we're wrong Searching models for so long All of us knowing Snow is a battlefield 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Weenie strong Pro mets can't tell us we're wrong Searching models for so long All of us knowing Snow is a battlefield You can't be that old, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, mahk_webstah said: You can't be that old, man. Some music is timeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Look at the difference at H5 between the latest GFS and EURO at hour 72, that arctic shortwave is faster on the EURO in moving out of the arctic circle in NE Manitoba, while the GFS and NAM are more in line with a slower arctic jet, this could either allow for a better phase, or a system that fails to phase. The next two images of the EURO will be interesting to see how it handles the yet to be sampled Arctic s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 13 hours ago, OceanStWx said: I'd be curious to see what a measurement from Monadnock would do for our map. Currently we only have a few reports of 2-5" in the area, but almost all of those are low elevation. I was wondering what the new ipswich, temple , francestown corridor had at 1k. Francestown prolly the most bc that 0c 925 contour was probably south of them longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Look at the difference at H5 between the latest GFS and EURO at hour 72, that arctic shortwave is faster on the EURO in moving out of the arctic circle in NE Manitoba, while the GFS and NAM are more in line with a slower arctic jet, this could either allow for a better phase, or a system that fails to phase. The next two images of the EURO will be interesting to see how it handles the yet to be sampled Arctic s/w Nevermind, I was watching the wrong shortwave, it is in line with the GFS and NAM so far, but the EURO has the southern energy sticking over the west coast. The baroclinic zone is way too far offshore, I don't like how this is happening, no big storm likely from this run for the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Can you help me out here.....I keep hearing #1 and #2. Isn't the rainer this weekend #1? The non-event on Wednesday is (or was) #2 and the event in la-la land is #3? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: Can you help me out here.....I keep hearing #1 and #2. Isn't the rainer this weekend #1? The non-event on Wednesday is (or was) #2 and the event in la-la land is #3? Thanks. This weekend hasn't been numbered. If you want we can call it #0. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: This weekend hasn't been numbered. If you want we can call it #0. In that case we can go to the la-la land and call that #1. "Wednesday aint' happening, James". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Cold And Dry then we will have chances if high pressure is nearby Quebec during relaxation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Nevermind, I was watching the wrong shortwave, it is in line with the GFS and NAM so far, but the EURO has the southern energy sticking over the west coast. The baroclinic zone is way too far offshore, I don't like how this is happening, no big storm likely from this run for the 5th. Lol you are looking so hard to find a way for this to work out...you're all mixed up. Holy Sh*t James....Just Chill for god sakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Euro is looking pretty tasty in clown range for the Dec 9 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is looking pretty tasty in clown range for the Dec 9 threat. I agree Will, looks more probable than not at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I agree Will, looks more probable than not at this time. Pump the breaks dude...its 8-9 days out...there is basically no setup i can think of where we say it is "more probable than not" that a storm will hit us with that type of lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 He needs to see a snowflake pronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 The 120 hour to me looks like a prelude to a NJ modeler but just needs a little bit more in terms of jet mechanics... Which overall is a different look entirely compared to prior cycles. The earlier runs had more southern isotach curvature/wind maxing in the TV region at 120+ but this solution seems to have finally, entirely committed to abandoning that - which may very well have been trended since yesterday ... But now, we have this weakly negative tilting deal up around Chi-town with some cyclonic surface response, albeit weakly so... end upon SE of CC a day later. Interesting to see that wave space just sort of swap out like that over the last day. As Nick and I were discussing yesterday (and still appears to be the case...) there may actually be more large --> small scale support for something in the D8-12 range. There is a less than obvious if still suggested mass-field restoration look there.. As other's also note, that's usually when/where things tend to happen, at those modulation intervals. blah blah.. seems like playing this tape for 10 years now but luckily for us, these physical properties of our world take billions of years to break down, huh ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is looking pretty tasty in clown range for the Dec 9 threat. Nice "shed" solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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