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November/December Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Just throwing this out there.

Per DT (WxRisk) "Cold pattern breaks down after Dec 10-11..Mild for December 12-24"

Interesting.  We can’t get accuracy 5 days out so that doesn’t move my needle.  If we get next weekend then all is right for me. 

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies are nice but proving to be jumpy again. Some nice hints recently with ens guidance backing down the intensity of the +epo and now the weeklies followed. Starting to get the feel that a hostile Pac may not materialize at all. At least not long enough to cause any panic anyways. 

Bob, do you know when the Euro and Ukmet seasonals are updated again ?

I want to say near the 5 th of the month maybe ? 

Funny thing is if the bullish euro seasonal holds court again ( 4 th month in a row ) it simply makes sense to focus less on the jumpy weeklies. I know the pattern evolution, etc. is of high interest on them, but they do seem to have a few biases at play so far.  

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Bob, do you know when the Euro and Ukmet seasonals are updated again ?

I want to say near the 5 th of the month maybe ? 

Funny thing is if the bullish euro seasonal holds court again ( 4 th month in a row ) it simply makes sense to focus less on the jumpy weeklies. I know the pattern evolution, etc. is of high interest on them, but they do seem to have a few biases at play so far.  

I'm not sure when the seasonals come out each month. 

The standout feature on the weeklies that I really liked was the coupled +pna/-epo setting up in early Jan. Lower heights underneath the +pna implying an active southern stream. Total fantasyland lead time but if the pac did in fact set up like that then Jan could be a cold/stormy month. Right in the heart of prime climo...

 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

As far as day 5 . Just saw the 12z Ukie and it has a deeper trough kind of like the Icon which gave us snow .

 

Not bad...Was just looking at the gefs...a nice trend.  Not quite there yet but you can see how it's possible to back into this and score something.

VXGPgXH.gif

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Timing kind of makes sense. Score on the way into a cold snap and score on he way out of the cold snap. I’m also liking that the cold anomalies are like -10 to -15. And not like -30 bone dry departures. I’m liking the look here for another winter appetizer...maybe even an entree if the cards fall right.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's a visual to go along with my last post. This is an exceptional winter pattern for our region. I'd take my chances with this any day between thanksgiving and St patty day....

Seems what you are saying follows this progression nicely :

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
16 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Okay I'm gonna need somebody in here to be an HM translator...I don't understand about 80% of his tweets, lol

Basically the wheels are in motion for a return to colder weather right after the brief warm up. So all in all the relax of cold will not be a long span of time. 

So good news from HM   

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18 minutes ago, high risk said:

00z GFS taking a big step towards the idea of at least a close call on Tuesday

Looks like we get a period of light snow Tues night... but yes, close call overall.  FWIW, 00z GFS shows 1-2" south of DCA to around EZF and into S MD on the snowmap

Meanwhile both the 00z ICON and 00z CMC say we get nothing for Tuesday... and 00z CMC FWIW says no to the Dec 8th to 10th chance as well.

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