SR Airglow Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 48 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Things very few on here care about, but the meso-models are surprisingly cold tomorrow evening for the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, etc. RGEM and NAM even want to snow into the NNE valleys for a good burst of QPF on the front end. 850s are surprisingly cold too. If something like the NAM/WRF/RGEM panned out, could be more interesting than it seemed a day or two ago. Need to see soundings as I suspect there's some marginal layer just above 850mb but it's got SFC temps of 33F widespread with this look. Often seems to be the case with these marginal systems as the mesos do a better job of sniffing out CAD. Looking at the GFS(currently the warmest guidance I believe) sounding for my spot in Northern NH (Shelburne at 900", right on the NH/ME line), there's definitely a marginal layer around 700 or so but even at 06z it's still a snow sounding down to the final couple hundred feet above the surface. I'd imagine with good enough rates we'd see some 33f paste but it's so marginal that we'll just have to wait and see what verifies. Either way, should be some good early season base building for the higher elevations and probably a nice ski day on Saturday for Sunday River and Wildcat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 12z Euro still looking to drop 6-8" on the spine over in VT and 8-12" in the Whites in NH and Mahoosucs into Maine on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 From my limited free ECMWF info, it looks like it came in a little warmer. But I can't tell if it's maybe just a little slower? The meso low in GOM looks a little west of where it was earlier. Anyone have any ECMWF totals? Edit, thanks Dryslot! you read my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: Often seems to be the case with these marginal systems as the mesos do a better job of sniffing out CAD. Looking at the GFS(currently the warmest guidance I believe) sounding for my spot in Northern NH (Shelburne at 900", right on the NH/ME line), there's definitely a marginal layer around 700 or so but even at 06z it's still a snow sounding down to the final couple hundred feet above the surface. I'd imagine with good enough rates we'd see some 33f paste but it's so marginal that we'll just have to wait and see what verifies. Either way, should be some good early season base building for the higher elevations and probably a nice ski day on Saturday for Sunday River and Wildcat. Yeah and the GFS seems to currently be the warmest model. Hard to say with it as often in those marginal SNE events most folks seem in favor of tossing the SFC temps as too high. But it appears the model differences of the GFS vs mesos is about 1-2C in the lowest 2,000ft... which makes all the difference in the world in a situation like this. The GGEM is more like the RGEM (RGEM would keep your spot all snow) with a lot of 32-34F surface temps during heaviest precip. Also add in SE flow which can add some upslope cooling to the east slopes of the Greens and SE slopes of the Whites...sometimes that low level forced ascent can get that extra 1C of cooling needed in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Tues getting a little more interesting too on the 12z Euro, Colder run in NNE and slp low tracks from NYC to over PWM instead of NE VT, A few tics East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Not to far off on snow totals in the mtns from the FV3 GFS......................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Tues getting a little more interesting too on the 12z Euro, Colder run in NNE and slp low tracks from NYC to over PWM instead of NE VT, A few tics East. More in line with the other models then. Good to see it got rid of the BUF track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: More in line with the other models then. Good to see it got rid of the BUF track. That kind of piqued my interest a little that run, Not far off from a bomb to the coast, Sub 982mb in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: That kind of piqued my interest a little that run, Not far off from a bomb to the coast, Sub 982mb If it's still in that general zone on Saturday, it might be time to consider it more realistically in the mountains. As it is, definitely filed under "continue watching" status. Like in mid-winter with long lead sometimes it's easy to get lulled in by consistency...this one has been on the models since like Day 9, and definitely don't want to be fooled by the consistency for the past 4 days of some sort of wintry event in the mountains. Long way to go still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: If it's still in that general zone on Saturday, it might be time to consider it more realistically in the mountains. As it is, definitely filed under "continue watching" status. Like in mid-winter, this one has been on the models since like Day 9, and definitely don't want to be fooled by the consistency for the past 4 days of some sort of wintry event in the mountains. Long way to go still. Of course, That's really the first Euro run that was further east with Tuesdays low pressure over the past several days, But that was a pretty big change at H5 from the 0z run so i'm wondering if a s/w out west was better sampled, Guess we watch, We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Euro at 192 hours seems interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Things very few on here care about, but the meso-models are surprisingly cold tomorrow evening for the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, etc. RGEM and NAM even want to snow into the NNE valleys for a good burst of QPF on the front end. 850s are surprisingly cold too. If something like the NAM/WRF/RGEM panned out, could be more interesting than it seemed a day or two ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Not gonna lie, I'm scared that this new test GFS is going to take over for the old one. The test GFS has been by far the snowiest model for the past 3 days of model runs. I'm not sure what the algorithm is but for three straight days, 4 runs a day, it has had next week's storm have a jackpot of 20+ inches. Some runs have even been over 30". If this is what the GFS becomes, it's going to be a sh*tshow when every event is on crystal meth: I'm in the jack stripe, so that can't be right. 12z GFS op brings Tuesday's LP right over my head, for a torch-deluge. Track will likely wobble E-W a couple degrees longitude about every 12 hours from now thru zero hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Something is off with the FV3 algorithm there. I’m not even sure it’s the model, the vendor algorithm looks like it’s toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Might even get some thunder tomorrow night. Another 1-2”+. Gfs is rather interesting in NNE next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 40 minutes ago, tamarack said: I'm in the jack stripe, so that can't be right. 12z GFS op brings Tuesday's LP right over my head, for a torch-deluge. Track will likely wobble E-W a couple degrees longitude about every 12 hours from now thru zero hour. I'd swallow my monitor if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Last couple model suites have wanted to shift that surface LP further to the east as a hugger instead of a HV runner on Tues, Euro did as well at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 I think We a “Trending”..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 This is suddenly beginning to pique my interest here above 2K. It's going to a battle between the WAA aloft near 700-750 mb, the surface, and the dynamical cooling resulting from the heavy precipitation. I'm more concerned about the midlevel warmth...if I can overwhelm that, it'll snow parachutes down here at the surface. Mesos keep me wet snow for several hours before flipping to cold rain and then ending as some upslope snow showers Saturday AM. I may have a glacier by then if we snow, rain, and snow/freeze. Snow blower is gassed up and ready to go just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Last couple model suites have wanted to shift that surface LP further to the east as a hugger instead of a HV runner on Tues, Euro did as well at 12z Outside of the mountains and deep interior it still leans towards a close but no cigar mid-level torch for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Yay, more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Outside of the mountains and deep interior it still leans towards a close but no cigar mid-level torch for most. Yup, Still torches aloft just inland, But it was torching aloft to QUE a day or two ago, That sneaky cold, Need to keep an eye on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Sneaky quebec highs are only good for nne in Nov. The rest drop kick their rain gauges in disgust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yay, more rain. At least the rain keeps getting colder. We'll have 33F and rain before you know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Watch for sneaky ice storm NW CT to S VT elevations from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Very similar setup to this storm https://www.courant.com/entertainment/hc-icestorm-112002-story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Watch for sneaky ice storm NW CT to S VT elevations from that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 It's interesting to see two storms that looks virtually identical three or four days apart like that. I mean surface ... aloft, major features contributing, the mechanics all looks like the same system-weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 I'm awaiting the rain storm, but should it trend colder, I still have Pit 1 available if need be. That said, GYX even has a mix at Pit2. sounds lovely. Monday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 1pm. High near 44. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Tuesday Night Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Nothing ‘amazing’ about this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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