November discussion

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Synoptically it does make more sense.  Coldest anomalies are pressing into the upper Midwest and upper Lakes in the means...baroclinic zone definitely favors an inland runner, IMO.  

I could also see it being very close to the Friday/night system.  ULL is held pretty far NW.

I said that the other day given the pattern...that was after Kevin said "there is no cutter next week."  That happens when cold dives south, but again, it's a decent look. No one eyed pig is always good.

[CoastalWx]

My guess is it will take a more classic track near the SNE coast though.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

How many millions will lose power?

I’d say probably around 750,000 this time around. 

[mreaves]

24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’d say probably around 750,000 this time around. 

At least. Especially since we are just barely recovering from the last wind event. 

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Nope.  They only come out in big winter storm threat threads.  You'll never see anyone post them except in a snow situation.

How much snow did you get up there on Thanksgiving 1998?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

How much snow did you get up there on Thanksgiving 1998?

I don’t think he was there then...wasn’t he from Albany originally??? Or maybe I’m wrong on that? 

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How much snow did you get up there on Thanksgiving 1998?

lol not a clue... was in high school in NY.   I'll do some digging.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol not a clue... was in high school in NY.   I'll do some digging.

I remember watching TWC that evening during the storm and the OCM was losing his sh1t because MPV had flipped back over to 33F S+.

[Sugarloaf1989]

42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol not a clue... was in high school in NY.   I'll do some digging.

It was a high elevation snowfall, above 2,000' in Central Vermont. I skied Killington Thanksgiving Weekend and Killington had over 60 opened trails. It got warm and melted away shortly after. I recall about 24" of snow fell from the storm at Killington and it was very wet snow.

 

[mreaves]

40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I remember watching TWC that evening during the storm and the OCM was losing his sh1t because MPV had flipped back over to 33F S+.

I was 20 years old but had made the 18 year old drinking age cutoff 2 years earlier. Pretty sure I was liquored up in some bar with everyone else who was home for the holiday. Don’t remember snow. 

[powderfreak]

54 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I remember watching TWC that evening during the storm and the OCM was losing his sh1t because MPV had flipped back over to 33F S+.

Everything I can see on NOWdata seems to suggest a decent QPF event but not a ton of snow, even at Mansfield and Jay Peak.

Interesting that MPV flipped to SN+ as the ASOS records show 0.67" precip but temp spread of 37/34.  Must've gone to just a very wet snow at 34F or something.

There must've been one helluva QPF gradient though given the BTV total compared to the mountains and east.  These are two-day totals around that time period:

BTV... 0.20" precip, no snow.

Eden (1,500ft between Mansfield and Jay)... 1.03" precip, 1.5" snow

Morrisville (COOP not ASOS)... 0.78" precip, 0.7" snow

Rochester (just north of Killington)... 1.13" precip, 2.0" snow.

Woodstock (east of Killington)... 1.65" precip, 0.0" snow.

Bethel (northeast of Killington)... 1.62" precip, 1.0" snow.

 

The mountains had significantly more precip, as the only two COOPs above 2" liquid:

Jay Peak... 2.06" precip, 6.5" snow, depth increase of 7" (to 7")

Mansfield... 2.15" precip, 8.5" snow, depth increase of 8" (to 21")

*The Mansfield snow data is interesting as the high temperature for the storm was 30F but the snowfall and depth increase are pretty similar.  Wonder if there was freezing rain or sleet mixed in there?  It's not uncommon to see the new snow under-reported at the COOP there but in those cases you'll usually see the change in depth be significantly more than the reported snowfall.

[Sugarloaf1989]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Everything I can see on NOWdata seems to suggest a decent QPF event but not a ton of snow, even at Mansfield and Jay Peak.

Interesting that MPV flipped to SN+ as the ASOS records show 0.67" precip but temp spread of 37/34.  Must've gone to just a very wet snow at 34F or something.

There must've been one helluva QPF gradient though given the BTV total compared to the mountains and east.  These are two-day totals around that time period:

BTV... 0.20" precip, no snow.

Eden (1,500ft between Mansfield and Jay)... 1.03" precip, 1.5" snow

Morrisville (COOP not ASOS)... 0.78" precip, 0.7" snow

Rochester (just north of Killington)... 1.13" precip, 2.0" snow.

Woodstock (east of Killington)... 1.65" precip, 0.0" snow.

Bethel (northeast of Killington)... 1.62" precip, 1.0" snow.

 

The mountains had significantly more precip, as the only two COOPs above 2" liquid:

Jay Peak... 2.06" precip, 6.5" snow, depth increase of 7" (to 7")

Mansfield... 2.15" precip, 8.5" snow, depth increase of 8" (to 21")

*The Mansfield snow data is interesting as the high temperature for the storm was 30F but the snowfall and depth increase are pretty similar.  Wonder if there was freezing rain or sleet mixed in there?  It's not uncommon to see the new snow under-reported at the COOP there but in those cases you'll usually see the change in depth be significantly more than the reported snowfall.

There was close to nothing for snowfall accumulation below 2'000 - 2'500'. I also skied at Okemo that weekend and only the top 2/3 of the mountain had snowcover. 

 

[dendrite]

MPV was 32°-33°

KMPV 261551Z AUTO 16013KT 4SM -RA BR OVC016 04/02 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP107
     P0008 T00390022 TSNO
KMPV 261628Z AUTO 17010KT 5SM -RA BR OVC014 04/02 A2978 RMK AO2 P0005 TSNO
KMPV 261651Z AUTO 16011KT 7SM -RA OVC014 03/02 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP093 P0006
     T00330022 TSNO
KMPV 261751Z AUTO 19008KT 5SM -RA BR OVC014 03/01 A2974 RMK AO2 SLP081
     P0011 60031 T00280011 10039 20022 56044 TSNO
KMPV 261851Z AUTO 20005KT 4SM RA BR OVC014 02/01 A2972 RMK AO2 SLP077 P0013
     T00170006 TSNO
KMPV 261913Z AUTO 30003KT 4SM -SN BR FEW011 OVC016 01/00 A2971 RMK AO2
     RAE1852SNB1852 P0004 TSNO
KMPV 261924Z AUTO 00000KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR BKN011 OVC014 01/00 A2970 RMK AO2
     RAE1852SNB1852 P0005 TSNO
KMPV 261930Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM -SN BR VV011 01/00 A2970 RMK AO2
KMPV 261939Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV008 01/00 A2969 RMK AO2
KMPV 261951Z AUTO 00000KT 1/2SM SN FG SCT001 OVC008 01/00 A2969 RMK AO2
     RAE1852SNB1852 SLP066 P0005 T00060000 TSNO
KMPV 262020Z AUTO 32003KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN001 BKN008 OVC012 00/00 A2968 RMK
     AO2 P0001 TSNO
KMPV 262051Z AUTO 33003KT 1/2SM SN FG BKN001 OVC009 01/00 A2967 RMK AO2
     SLP060 P0003 60021 T00060000 58021 TSNO
KMPV 262121Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC001 01/00 A2965 RMK AO2 P0001
KMPV 262151Z AUTO 01004KT 3/4SM -SN BR OVC001 00/00 A2962 RMK AO2 PRESFR
     SLP043 P0002 T00000000 TSNO
KMPV 262236Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM -SN BR OVC001 00/00 A2959 RMK AO2 P0001 TSNO
KMPV 262241Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC001 00/00 A2959 RMK AO2 P0001
KMPV 262251Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM -SN BR OVC001 00/00 A2958 RMK AO2 SLP029
     P0001 T00000000 TSNO
KMPV 262258Z AUTO 33004KT 3/4SM -SN BR OVC001 01/00 A2958 RMK AO2 P0000
KMPV 262302Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC001 00/00 A2958 RMK AO2 P0001
KMPV 262312Z AUTO 32003KT 1SM -SN BR OVC001 00/00 A2957 RMK AO2 P0001 

[dendrite]

Looks like only moderate there though. 

[dendrite]

It was all dynamic cooling so there would be haves and have nots depending where the strongest uvv’s were. It was back to the upper 30s around midnght with rain.

KMPV 262351Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM -SN BR OVC001 01/00 A2955 RMK AO2 SLP019
     P0002 60025 T00060000 10028 20000 56039 TSNO
KMPV 262359Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR BKN001 OVC007 01/00 A2955 RMK AO2
     P0000 TSNO
KMPV 270006Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR SCT001 OVC007 01/00 A2955 RMK AO2
KMPV 270031Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR SCT001 OVC011 01/00 A2955 RMK AO2
KMPV 270040Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM -SN BR FEW001 SCT009 BKN013 01/00 A2954 RMK
     AO2 P0000 TSNO
KMPV 270051Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM -RA SCT014 BKN019 01/00 A2954 RMK AO2
     RAB45SNE45 SLP014 P0001 T00060000 TSNO
KMPV 270101Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM -FZRA BKN017 OVC022 01/00 A2954 RMK AO2
     RAE0055FZRAB0055 P0000 TSNO
KMPV 270116Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM -SN BR OVC015 01/00 A2954 RMK AO2
     RAE0055FZRAB0055E10SNB10 P0000 TSNO
KMPV 270132Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM -RA OVC013 01/00 A2953 RMK AO2
     RAE0055B24FZRAB0055E10SNB10E24 P0000 TSNO
KMPV 270151Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM -RA BR BKN011 OVC019 01/00 A2952 RMK AO2
     RAE0055B24FZRAB0055E10SNB10E24 SLP009 P0001 T00060000 TSNO
KMPV 270251Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM -RA BKN005 OVC009 01/01 A2950 RMK AO2 CIG
     003V007 SLP001 P0004 60006 T00110006 58018 TSNO
KMPV 270315Z AUTO 32004KT 10SM SCT005 BKN010 OVC020 02/01 A2949 RMK AO2
     RAE09UPB07E08 CIG 009V012 P0002 TSNO
KMPV 270330Z AUTO 28005KT 10SM FEW008 BKN022 OVC033 02/01 A2949 RMK AO2
     RAE09UPB07E08 P0003 TSNO
KMPV 270351Z AUTO 30008KT 10SM SCT022 BKN036 OVC100 02/01 A2948 RMK AO2
     RAE09UPB07E08 SLP995 P0004 T00220011 TSNO
KMPV 270451Z AUTO 28008KT 10SM 03/02 A2949 RMK AO2 SLP996 T00280017
     400390000 TSNO $
KMPV 270512Z AUTO 31010G16KT 10SM FEW016 OVC024 03/01 A2949 RMK AO2 P0002
     TSNO $
KMPV 270551Z AUTO 29007KT 10SM SCT015 BKN020 OVC033 03/01 A2949 RMK AO2
     SLP997 P0007 6//// T00280011 10028 20006 TSNO $
KMPV 270606Z AUTO 28007KT 10SM BKN013 OVC020 03/01 A2949 RMK AO2 P0003 TSNO
     $
KMPV 270631Z AUTO 30007KT 10SM OVC009 03/01 A2950 RMK AO2 CIG 007V012 P0006
KMPV 270651Z AUTO 30006KT 10SM BKN009 OVC015 03/01 A2950 RMK AO2 CIG
     007V011 SLP002 P0009 T00280011 TSNO $
KMPV 270705Z AUTO 32007KT 10SM OVC012 03/01 A2951 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $
KMPV 270751Z AUTO 30014G19KT 10SM OVC010 03/01 A2951 RMK AO2 SLP004 P0010
     T00280006 TSNO $
KMPV 270851Z AUTO 31013G20KT 10SM OVC010 02/01 A2953 RMK AO2 CIG 008V013
     SLP012 P0009 60028 T00220006 53012 TSNO $
KMPV 270951Z AUTO 30014G19KT 10SM OVC008 02/01 A2955 RMK AO2 CIG 007V011
     SLP018 P0007 T00220006 TSNO $
KMPV 271008Z AUTO 29015G22KT 5SM -RA BR OVC010 02/00 A2956 RMK AO2
     UPB0958E08RAB08 CIG 007V014 P0002 TSNO $
KMPV 271043Z AUTO 29012KT 9SM SCT011 BKN016 OVC023 02/00 A2958 RMK AO2
     UPB0958E40RAB08E10 P0005 TSNO $
KMPV 271051Z AUTO 30016G23KT 9SM FEW009 BKN012 OVC024 02/00 A2959 RMK AO2
     UPB0958E40RAB08E10 SLP031 P0005 T00170000 TSNO $
KMPV 271123Z AUTO 29013KT 10SM FEW010 BKN020 OVC033 02/00 A2960 RMK AO2
     P0002 TSNO $
KMPV 271151Z AUTO 30014G24KT 9SM SCT013 SCT019 OVC035 01/00 A2961 RMK AO2
     SLP041 P0003 60043 7//// T00110000 10028 20017 53026 TSNO $

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like only moderate there though. 

Interesting.  I was in NOWdata for Montpelier-Barre and assumed it was the ASOS.  But those hourly obs show differently.  

Either way, moderate snow in that marginal thermal profile is usually pounding snow.  That's wet pasty or slushy dendrites falling furiously.  Given the surrounding snowfall reports that's like the stuff that brings 1" snow on .30-.40" QPF slop.

[dendrite]

Also....COOPs measuring once every 24hrs at 12z probably would’ve missed the snow before it melted. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting.  I was in NOWdata for Montpelier-Barre and assumed it was the ASOS.  But those hourly obs show differently.  

Either way, moderate snow in that marginal thermal profile is usually pounding snow.  That's wet pasty or slushy dendrites falling furiously.  

Bears out my memory of skiing glue. There was also almost no snowmaking base due to the warm November. Wasn't 1998 and El Nino year? That winter was very warm.

[powderfreak]

Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said:

 

Bears out my memory of skiing glue. There was also almost no snowmaking base due to the warm November.

Yeah must've been heavy wet stuff... and even the higher elevation snowfall was dense on the numbers...high QPF but low ratio snowfall even at temps near or below freezing.  1,500ft and below temps looked very dependent on lift, and locally those snow levels can vary drastically based on orographics and banding in Vermont. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah must've been heavy wet stuff... and even the higher elevation snowfall was dense on the numbers...high QPF but low ratio snowfall even at temps near or below freezing.  1,500ft and below temps looked very dependent on lift, and locally those snow levels can vary drastically based on orographics and banding in Vermont. 

It was a coastal storm that had to manufacture it's cold air, almost like a late October snowstorm rather than late November.

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

How much snow did you get up there on Thanksgiving 1998?

Looking back, Thanksgiving itself was on the 26^th, and I’ve got reports from my ski journal on the 26^th, 27^th, 28^th, and 29^th (links below).  The reports are generally ski focused vs. weather focused, but there’s definitely plenty of snow/weather stuff in there.

I went skiing on the morning of the 26^th before Thanksgiving dinner and I’ve added an excerpt of that text below.

“This morning I was off to Sugarbush for some Turkey day turns.  Mt. Ellen (Sugarbush North) is now open, so I figured I'd hit it for the first time this year.  As I left Burlington, conditions were drizzle/light rain (40 degrees F), and I was anticipating drizzle and maybe a few flurries at the summit, but I wasn't expecting and real snow, shows to go ya what I know.  As I entered the more mountainous areas of Richmond along I-89, the rain became steadier and it was an all-out downpour at times.  I was just dreaming of what conditions would be like if it were cold enough for snow.  I figured we had overrunning warm air, and even the mountains were warm enough for rain, oh well, skiing is skiing, I'll take what I can get.

Things began to get interesting as I passed over the mountains on Rt. 100 in Duxbury.  As I reached the pass, I suddenly saw snow mixing in with the rain!  I checked that altimeter, 870', I was just hoping this wasn't a localized sort of thing.  As I crested the top of the road through Duxbury (approximately 1130') the snow was actually sticking on logs etc. in the woods, and as I approached the intersection of 100 and 100B, I noticed a car approach with about 3 inches of snow on it.  Now I was worried that I didn't have my snow tires on yet, I wasn't expecting real snow.  The snow turned back to rain as I passed through the Mad River Valley, and changed back to snow again on German Flats Road (at elevation 930').  By the time I got to the base of the mountain (approximately 1500'), it was starting to accumulate on the road into slush.

I took the lift to nowhere, then onto the North Ridge express and cruised Upper Looking Good / Lower Rim Run to get to the summit quad.  2-3 inches of snow had already accumulated on the sides of the trail, traffic was light, and man was it sweet.”

 

Skiing on the 27^th I reported the following:

“It was still too early to get on the Gate House Lift, so I headed over to The Super Bravo. First trip up Heaven's Gate, I see a tele ski patroller ripping a great line down the totally fresh Spillsville.  About a half a foot of new, plus whatever else was underneath, it looked sweet!”

 

The skiing must have been pretty nice on the 28^th because I had the following in my report:

“Many new trails are open now, including Paradise, Ripcord, Domino Chute, Lower Jester etc.  basically a good chunk of the stuff that will get you back to Heaven's Gate via the traverse.  I also overheard that they opened Exterminator.  In general, as people have mentioned, the coverage on the natural snow trails (that are open) is great.  Paradise was awesome, except for the connection section back to Ripcord which had a lot of exposed rocks.  Get out and enjoy some of the soft natural, it wasn't even turning hard under the traffic of Holiday weekend skiers.”

 

Sugarbush, VT, Thursday 26NOV98 - Text

Sugarbush, VT, Friday 27NOV98 - Text

Sugarbush, VT, Saturday 28NOV98 - Text

Sugarbush, VT, Sunday 29NOV98 - Text

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Everything I can see on NOWdata seems to suggest a decent QPF event but not a ton of snow, even at Mansfield and Jay Peak.

Interesting that MPV flipped to SN+ as the ASOS records show 0.67" precip but temp spread of 37/34.  Must've gone to just a very wet snow at 34F or something.

There must've been one helluva QPF gradient though given the BTV total compared to the mountains and east.  These are two-day totals around that time period:

BTV... 0.20" precip, no snow.

Eden (1,500ft between Mansfield and Jay)... 1.03" precip, 1.5" snow

Morrisville (COOP not ASOS)... 0.78" precip, 0.7" snow

Rochester (just north of Killington)... 1.13" precip, 2.0" snow.

Woodstock (east of Killington)... 1.65" precip, 0.0" snow.

Bethel (northeast of Killington)... 1.62" precip, 1.0" snow.

 

The mountains had significantly more precip, as the only two COOPs above 2" liquid:

Jay Peak... 2.06" precip, 6.5" snow, depth increase of 7" (to 7")

Mansfield... 2.15" precip, 8.5" snow, depth increase of 8" (to 21")

*The Mansfield snow data is interesting as the high temperature for the storm was 30F but the snowfall and depth increase are pretty similar.  Wonder if there was freezing rain or sleet mixed in there?  It's not uncommon to see the new snow under-reported at the COOP there but in those cases you'll usually see the change in depth be significantly more than the reported snowfall.

Edit: Wait a second, I just noticed you were talking about 1998 not 1988. 10 years later was probably just a better beer.

[Sugarloaf1989]

29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah must've been heavy wet stuff... and even the higher elevation snowfall was dense on the numbers...high QPF but low ratio snowfall even at temps near or below freezing.  1,500ft and below temps looked very dependent on lift, and locally those snow levels can vary drastically based on orographics and banding in Vermont. 

It was a coastal storm that had to manufacture it's cold air, almost like a late October snowstorm rather than late November.

[Sugarloaf1989]

21 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Looking back, Thanksgiving itself was on the 26^th, and I’ve got reports from my ski journal on the 26^th, 27^th, 28^th, and 29^th (links below).  The reports are generally ski focused vs. weather focused, but there’s definitely plenty of snow/weather stuff in there.

I went skiing on the morning of the 26^th before Thanksgiving dinner and I’ve added an excerpt of that text below.

“This morning I was off to Sugarbush for some Turkey day turns.  Mt. Ellen (Sugarbush North) is now open, so I figured I'd hit it for the first time this year.  As I left Burlington, conditions were drizzle/light rain (40 degrees F), and I was anticipating drizzle and maybe a few flurries at the summit, but I wasn't expecting and real snow, shows to go ya what I know.  As I entered the more mountainous areas of Richmond along I-89, the rain became steadier and it was an all-out downpour at times.  I was just dreaming of what conditions would be like if it were cold enough for snow.  I figured we had overrunning warm air, and even the mountains were warm enough for rain, oh well, skiing is skiing, I'll take what I can get.

Things began to get interesting as I passed over the mountains on Rt. 100 in Duxbury.  As I reached the pass, I suddenly saw snow mixing in with the rain!  I checked that altimeter, 870', I was just hoping this wasn't a localized sort of thing.  As I crested the top of the road through Duxbury (approximately 1130') the snow was actually sticking on logs etc. in the woods, and as I approached the intersection of 100 and 100B, I noticed a car approach with about 3 inches of snow on it.  Now I was worried that I didn't have my snow tires on yet, I wasn't expecting real snow.  The snow turned back to rain as I passed through the Mad River Valley, and changed back to snow again on German Flats Road (at elevation 930').  By the time I got to the base of the mountain (approximately 1500'), it was starting to accumulate on the road into slush.

I took the lift to nowhere, then onto the North Ridge express and cruised Upper Looking Good / Lower Rim Run to get to the summit quad.  2-3 inches of snow had already accumulated on the sides of the trail, traffic was light, and man was it sweet.”

 

Skiing on the 27^th I reported the following:

“It was still too early to get on the Gate House Lift, so I headed over to The Super Bravo. First trip up Heaven's Gate, I see a tele ski patroller ripping a great line down the totally fresh Spillsville.  About a half a foot of new, plus whatever else was underneath, it looked sweet!”

 

The skiing must have been pretty nice on the 28^th because I had the following in my report:

“Many new trails are open now, including Paradise, Ripcord, Domino Chute, Lower Jester etc.  basically a good chunk of the stuff that will get you back to Heaven's Gate via the traverse.  I also overheard that they opened Exterminator.  In general, as people have mentioned, the coverage on the natural snow trails (that are open) is great.  Paradise was awesome, except for the connection section back to Ripcord which had a lot of exposed rocks.  Get out and enjoy some of the soft natural, it wasn't even turning hard under the traffic of Holiday weekend skiers.”

 

Sugarbush, VT, Thursday 26NOV98 - Text

Sugarbush, VT, Friday 27NOV98 - Text

Sugarbush, VT, Saturday 28NOV98 - Text

Sugarbush, VT, Sunday 29NOV98 - Text

I remember that it was too warm for Okemo to make snow on the lower mountain. We had to take a shuttle bus up the mountain to the Green Ridge Triple Chair. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

I might have pictures of this somewhere. 

[dendrite]

MPV magic.

[moneypitmike]

At least we can get a further dent in our drought next week.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Amazing look on the 00z and 06z GFS runs this morning.  A Quebec, Canada high is present as a storm in the south develops, but this is clearly two weeks out, so around Thanksgiving, we might get a cool storm.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

You’re an amazing weenie.

[CoastalWx]

I see amazing cold rain events.