November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[NJwx85]

Another 2”+ of rain coming tomorrow.

[Isotherm]

I posted my pattern thoughts/update in last post of winter outlook thread if interested: 

 

[doncat]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the severe November cold now having passed, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions are poised to receive yet another significant rainfall. Already, many cities in the region have had among their 10 or 20 wettest years. Such cities as Baltimore and Reading have had their wettest year on record. Others, including Charleston, WV and Washington, DC are steadily moving toward their highest annual precipitation records.

The preponderance of guidance suggests that the region will likely see a 0.50"-1.50" rainfall Saturday (mainly the evening or night) into Sunday. Some areas could have locally higher amounts in the 2.00"-2.50" range.

Below is a summary of where things currently stand for select cities, how their year-to-date precipitation ranks among the wettest years on record, and scenarios for precipitation amoungs ranging from 0.50" to 1.50".

59.50" here.

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

New coldest November minimum temperature on record for JFK. Low of 15 degrees with the previous coldest of 19 in 1987. LGA tied its coldest record at 17 degrees with 1955. The current low of 15 in NYC is the 5th coldest on record and coldest November temperature since 1930. HPN also set a new record coldest at 11 beating the previous record of 15 in 1976.

Path and timing of arctic high was perfect for both CAA and radiational cooling.  Got down to 13 here in southwest Nassau and FOK got down to 6.  JFK 15 smashed previous monthly record.  Looks like Binghampton and Syracuse both had their earliest below zero reading ever and first time ever in the month of November!  My barometer peaked at 30.63 at around 8 this morning too.  Perfect timing!

This would have been several degrees below zero if it happened in January wouldn't it?  Do you think we have an enhanced chance of that happening this winter?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park's 15° temperature was New York City's lowest November temperature since the mercury fell to 12° on November 27, 1932.

Record-breaking and record-tying low temperatures for November 22:

Albany: 8° (old record: 9°, 1969)
Allentown: 14° (old record: 15°, 2014)
Bangor: 5° (old record: 11°, 1978)
Binghamton: 3° (old record: 10°, 1989) ***Tied November Record set on 11/30/1976***
Bridgeport: 16° (old record: 18°, 1987) ***Tied November Record set on 11/28/1951 and tied on 11/23/1972***
Danbury: 14° (old record: 16°, 1969)
Hartford: 9° (old record: 14°, 1969)
Islip: 18° (old record: 20°, 1987)
Manchester: 9° (old record: 12°, 1969)
Mount Washington: -26° (old record: -11° set in 1969 and tied in 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: -20°, 11/30/1958)***
New Haven: 18° (old record: 20°, 1969)
New York City-JFK: 18° (old record: 20°, 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 19°, set on 11/30/1976 and tied on 11/21/1987)***
New York City-LGA: 19° (old record: 21°, 1987)
Newark: 17° (old record: 19°, 1987)
Portland: 6° (old record: 11°, 1888)
Poughkeepsie: 10° (old record: 14° set in 1972 and tied in 1984)
Providence: 15° (old record: 16° set in 1969 and tied in 1987)
Saranac Lake: -19° (old record: -2° set in 1972 and tied in 1987) ***Broke November Record (Old monthly record: -14°, set 11/26/1938 and tied on 11/28/1951)***
Scranton: 9° (old record: 15° set in 1969 and tied in 1987 and 2014)
White Plains: 14° (old record: 18° set in 1972 and tied in 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 15° set on 11/27/1949 and tied on 11/29/1955 and 11/30/1976)***
Worcester: 7° (old record: 11°, 1987)

Record Low Maximum Temperatures for November 22:

Albany: 19° (old record: 25°, 1880)
Allentown: 29° (old record: 31°, 1964)
Bangor: 14° (old record: 24°, 2008) ***Tied November Record set on 11/27/1978***
Binghamton: 15° (old record: 22°, 1959 and 2008) ***Tied November Record set on 11/30/1976***
Boston: 24° (tied record set in 1880)
Bridgeport: 29° (old record: 30°, 1972)
Caribou: 13° (old record: 18°, 1972)
Danbury: 25° (old record: 28°, 1972) ***Tied November Record set on 11/29/1949 and 11/28/1996***
Hartford: 21° (old record: 27°, 1978)
Islip: 29° (old record: 31°, 2008)
Manchester: 19° (old record: 25°, 2008) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 21°, 11/29/1929)***
Mount Washington: -13° (old record: -5°, 2008) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: -7°, 11/30/1958)***
New Haven: 28° (old record: 32°, 1972 and 2008)
New York City-JFK: 29° (old record: 34°, 1949 and 2008)
New York City-LGA: 29° (old record: 31°, 1972)
Newark: 29° (old record: 33°, 1949)
Portland: 17° (old record: 25°, 1880)
Poughkeepsie: 27° (old record: 30°, 1972 and 1978)
Providence: 24° (old record: 30°, 2008)
Saranac Lake: 8° (old record: 10°, 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 10°, 11/30/1936 and 11/22/1987)***
Scranton: 23° (old record: 28°, 1949, 1972, 1989, 2000, and 2008)
Trenton: 30° (tied record set in 1880)
Westhamton: 28° (old record: 32°, 2008) ***Broke November Record (old record: 30°, 11/29/1955)***
White Plains: 26° (old record: 30°, 2008) ***Tied November Record set on 11/30/1976***
Worcester: 16° (old record: 24°, 2008) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 20°, 11/30/1958)***

Preliminary Record-breaking and record-tying low temperatures for November 23:

Albany: 5° (tied record set in 1972)
Allentown: 11° (old record: 16°, 1964 and 2000)
Binghamton: 0° (old record: 12°, 1989 and 2008) ***Broke November Record (old record: 3°, set on 11/30/1976 and tied on 11/22/2018)***
Bridgeport: 13° (old record: 16°, 1972) ***Broke November Record (old record: 16°, set on 11/28/1951 and tied on 11/23/1972 and 11/22/2018)***
Burlington: -1° (old record: 2°, 1888 and 1972)
Danbury: 6° (old record: 12°, 1942)
Hartford: 5° (old record: 12°, 1972)
Mount Washington: -13° (tied record set in 1994)
New Haven: 13° (old record: 18°, 1964) ***Broke November Record (old record: 14°, 11/28/1951)
New York City-JFK: 15° (old record: 25°, set in 1949 and tied in 1964, 1972, 2000, and 2008) ***Broke November Record (old record: 18°, 11/22/2018)***
New York City-LGA: 17° (old record: 23°, 1972) ***Tied November Record set on 11/29/1955***
Newark: 13° (old record: 21°, 1932)
Portland: 4° (old record: 7°, 1888 and 1978)
Poughkeepsie: 6° (old record: 9°, 1989)
Providence: 13° (old record: 14°, 1972)
Saranac Lake: -17° (old record: -11°, 1932)
Scranton: 5° (old record: 13°, 1972) ***Broke November Record (old record: 6°, set 11/29/1929 and tied on 11/26/1938)
Trenton: 13° (old record: 16°, 1880)
Westhampton: 6° (old record: 14°, 1964 and 2000) ***Broke November Record (old record: 9°, 11/24/2000)***
White Plains: 11° (old record: 17°, 1972) ***Broke November Record (old record: 14°, 11/22/2018)***
Worcester: 7° (old record: 9°, 1929, 1972, and 1989)

Syracuse and Binghamton both had their earliest 0 or below temps on record and first time ever in November!  Don do you think we have a good chance to go below zero areawide this winter at least once?

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

The big difference is scientists aren’t forecasting a 100-200 square mile area when they are forecasting the temperature rise. It is very hard to pinpoint weather conditions, but easier to forecast global temperatures. Even though we are cold, much of the globe is still above normal, and that above normal blob is larger than the cold blob. Basically it is easy to say that it will snow somewhere in December than it is to say Central Park will receive 3-6 inches in December 16th, 2018. Scientists can look at species movements and see how the rise in greenhouse gases will change the weather in the future in the general sense. 

Exactly, basically when predicting climate you are working with much larger margins since the forecast resolution doesn't need to be as fine as it is with pin point local forecasts.  Climate is more about trends, while weather is about specific events.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

First monthly low temperature record at JFK since January 1985.

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 
1026 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2018

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER SET AT 
KENNEDY NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES WAS SET FOR THE MONTH OF 
NOVEMBER AT KENNEDY NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 18 SET 
ON NOVEMBER 22, 2018. THE PREVIOUS RECORD COLDEST TEMPERATURE FOR 
NOVEMBER WAS 19 SET IN 1987 ON THE 21ST. 

Jan...-2....1985

Feb....-2...1963

Mar.....7...1976

Apr....20..1982

May...34..1966

Jun...45...1967

Jul...55....1979

Aug..46...1965

Sep...40...1963

Oct...30...1976

Nov...15...2018

Dec...2.....1983

Long live Jan 1985!  I remember that well, my windows were iced over lol.  The coldest day in this area since Jan 1977.  The high stayed in the single digits too!

 

That was also the Reagan inaugural and I remember it looked like Antarctica down there lol.

 

Don, Chris, etc., do you think we have a higher than normal probability of getting something like that again this winter?

 

[LibertyBell]

Also saw that MPO dropped to -2, their earliest below zero temp on record (and first time in November) also?

 

Anyone know what the low at Monticello was?

 

[snywx]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Also saw that MPO dropped to -2, their earliest below zero temp on record (and first time in November) also?

 

Anyone know what the low at Monticello was?

 

-3

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

-3

Thanks that should be the earliest below zero temperature for either location and maybe even the first time it's ever happened in November.

[CIK62]

Remainder of Nov. averaging 42degs., or 1deg. BN.   All 8 days as also averaging 42degs.

Month to date is  -4.1[44.8].     Should end month at -3.6[44.2].

34.8 here at 5am.

EURO says NoSnow for next 10 days, and GFS has just 1" over the next 15 days.   The CFS takes yet another week, before indicating any snow here, keeping it to the north of us prior to that.

[doncat]

25° here currently...will rise above freezing in a few hours, but have been below freezing now since 10 pm Wed, so 54 hrs and counting...pretty impressive for so early.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Can this upcoming Tuesday / Wednesday be anything frozen, especially on the back end ?

[MJO812]

I think we have to wait until mid to late December for more snow in the east especially near the coast.

Many people were calling for a good pattern to start December but it looks like that will not happen.

[495weatherguy]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I think we have to wait until mid to late December for more snow in the east especially near the coast.

Many people were calling for a good pattern to start December but it looks like that will not happen.

What has changed to alter the predictions?  A few days ago December was supposed to be cold and stormy?

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Long live Jan 1985!  I remember that well, my windows were iced over lol.  The coldest day in this area since Jan 1977.  The high stayed in the single digits too!

 

That was also the Reagan inaugural and I remember it looked like Antarctica down there lol.

 

Don, Chris, etc., do you think we have a higher than normal probability of getting something like that again this winter?

 

Just look back on the newer 2010's climatology for JFK. There were record daily lows at JFK in November 2013, 2014, and 2017. Each of the following winter periods featured additional daily record low temperatures.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I think we have to wait until mid to late December for more snow in the east especially near the coast.

Many people were calling for a good pattern to start December but it looks like that will not happen.

Good discussion by Isotherm on the pattern for December. 

This tug & forth between the Nina/Nino state is still wrecking havoc on the models and pattern. 

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, doncat said:

59.50" here.

You should surpass 60" tonight.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Syracuse and Binghamton both had their earliest 0 or below temps on record and first time ever in November!  Don do you think we have a good chance to go below zero areawide this winter at least once?

 

Central Park, as always, will be tough. I could see it outside the City. Canada's vast snowcover may allow for less modification of Arctic air masses than typically occurs.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

What has changed to alter the predictions?  A few days ago December was supposed to be cold and stormy?

December still might be stormy and cold but not the first week.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

December still might be stormy and cold but not the first week.

Overall, I continue to think December will be somewhat colder than normal and snowier than normal. There will be some milder weather, too. My assessment is based on the month as a whole.

[Stormman96]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

December still might be stormy and cold but not the first week.

Starting to get that worry feeing.  Last week I kept thinking this is a bad sign for winter lovers that we are getting an early season snowstorm. Usually in past more often then not leads to snowless winters. Even while at sametime everyone was saying how good pattern was looking to end November and start December. Kept hearing from multiple sources that we would have a high chance of 2 or more winter storm threats in first week of December.   Now things are already changing and not looking so promising early December. Now im hearing perhaps mid to late December this reminds me of a winter in the past not sure what year. But kept hearing  cold an snow was coming. It was always 2 more weeks.  Next think I knew it was april.  Just venting. But hopefully thats not the case this year

[Isotherm]

6 hours ago, doncat said:

25° here currently...will rise above freezing in a few hours, but have been below freezing now since 10 pm Wed, so 54 hrs and counting...pretty impressive for so early.

 

Was just noting my station history and I've recorded 17 nights sub-freezing this cold season already (Oct/Nov). I honestly can't recall that happening, before December even begins.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

December still might be stormy and cold but not the first week.

 

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Overall, I continue to think December will be somewhat colder than normal and snowier than normal. There will be some milder weather, too. My assessment is based on the month as a whole.

Yea.  The second half of the December looks cold but it's become hard to trust any of the models in the long range.   That's why we count on you folks to show us the light. 

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Starting to get that worry feeing.  Last week I kept thinking this is a bad sign for winter lovers that we are getting an early season snowstorm. Usually in past more often then not leads to snowless winters. Even while at sametime everyone was saying how good pattern was looking to end November and start December. Kept hearing from multiple sources that we would have a high chance of 2 or more winter storm threats in first week of December.   Now things are already changing and not looking so promising early December. Now im hearing perhaps mid to late December this reminds me of a winter in the past not sure what year. But kept hearing  cold an snow was coming. It was always 2 more weeks.  Next think I knew it was april.  Just venting. But hopefully thats not the case this year

I trust our long range guys.   If they say it's coming it probably is at some point. 

[Stormlover74]

36 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Starting to get that worry feeing.  Last week I kept thinking this is a bad sign for winter lovers that we are getting an early season snowstorm. Usually in past more often then not leads to snowless winters. Even while at sametime everyone was saying how good pattern was looking to end November and start December. Kept hearing from multiple sources that we would have a high chance of 2 or more winter storm threats in first week of December.   Now things are already changing and not looking so promising early December. Now im hearing perhaps mid to late December this reminds me of a winter in the past not sure what year. But kept hearing  cold an snow was coming. It was always 2 more weeks.  Next think I knew it was april.  Just venting. But hopefully thats not the case this year

That was 2011-12. There's never any guarantee of cold and snow so just be patient and whatever happens happens

[SnowGoose69]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Path and timing of arctic high was perfect for both CAA and radiational cooling.  Got down to 13 here in southwest Nassau and FOK got down to 6.  JFK 15 smashed previous monthly record.  Looks like Binghampton and Syracuse both had their earliest below zero reading ever and first time ever in the month of November!  My barometer peaked at 30.63 at around 8 this morning too.  Perfect timing!

This would have been several degrees below zero if it happened in January wouldn't it?  Do you think we have an enhanced chance of that happening this winter?

 

 

The ridge axis was slightly too far south for ideal cold air draining which is probably which it wasn’t 3-5 degrees colder at most places.  The high center was over or just north of the area.  The best situation is usually for the high center to be across NE NY, VT or WRN MA with an extending axis to the SSW.  That way you get NNE or NE flow all night.  When the ridge is more south you’ll usually see NW flow or NNW before it comes overhead which causes slight downsloping most areas.  I should also add a high in this position also is more likely to not have crossed the Great Lakes and seen an air mass be modified while a high crossing overhead which tracked across PA likely did cross the lakes 

[uncle W]

the first week of some great cold and snowy Decembers were mild...some years the first two weeks...1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1966 had a mild period in the first part of December but they all had snow on the ground Christmas morning from storms between the 11th-24th... after one of the coldest few days in November in a long time and a snowstorm 4-6", what is there to complain about....I'd rather see a nothing first half of December and a good second half...

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the first week of some great cold and snowy Decembers were mild...some years the first two weeks...1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1966 had a mild period in the first part of December but they all had snow on the ground Christmas morning from storms between the 11th-24th... after one of the coldest few days in November in a long time and a snowstorm 4-6", what is there to complain about....I'd rather see a nothing first half of December and a good second half...

People forget that average highs on Dec 1st are around 47F in Central Park. Climatology favors the second half of the month for significant snowfall. 

In 2010 we had a very cold December but waited until 12/26 for our first significant storm when Central Park got 20" on Boxing Day.

First week of Dec looks Niña-like in the means with a prevailing -PNA and western trough...may be due to AAM loss. Then we wait..