JerseyWx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, doncat said: Euro has temps around 20° for turkey morning and mainly teens Friday am. Very cold Wednesday through Friday next week. Lows in the teens...more appropriate for mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 10 hours ago, Snow88 said: Nam shifting south for Tuesday's little system Nmm and arw shifted south from 18z for Tuesday Im not sure what the Nam looked like yesterday but the FV3 now has it colder for interior on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 53 minutes ago, doncat said: Euro has temps around 20° for turkey morning and mainly teens Friday am. Yeah, it has a top 5 coldest Thanksgiving for NYC. The Arctic front comes through around midnight with the daily high. Afternoon temperatures remain in the 20's. Northerly flow cold air drain down the Hudson Valley with no Great Lakes modification. Thanksgiving Euro temperatures for NYC....lower in the surrounding areas 12am..........30 6 am...........20 12pm..........26 3pm............27 6pm............23 9pm............20 12 am Fri.....19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Tuesday is a pretty good example of a setup that is snow 4 weeks from now easily but isn’t this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 What are the winds like for the parade? That set up is concerning for gusty NW winds, which could ground balloons for first time since the Cat and the Hat debacle in the 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 25 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: What are the winds like for the parade? That set up is concerning for gusty NW winds, which could ground balloons for first time since the Cat and the Hat debacle in the 90s From the aviation portion of OKX AFD this morning: .Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR. NW winds 15G25kt. From the marine portion of the same AFD: Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. An arctic front move across the waters Wednesday night bringing SCA and low chance of gale conditions Wednesday night into Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 The Thanksgiving Arctic outbreak will get a boost from the 2nd highest mid-November NA snow extent of the last 13 years. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 ^^Lowest my station has ever been in November is 17 degrees...could be challenging that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Coldest temperatures for November in NYC since 1950...2018 could make this list on Thanksgiving day... 16...11/29/1955 17...11/30/1976 18...11/21/1987 20...11/15/1967 21...11/21/1959 21...11/24/1970 21...11/23/1972 22...11/24/1956 22...11/14/1986 22...11/25/2005 22...11/19/2014 23...11/22/1989 23...11/28/1996 23...11/24/2000 23...11/22/2008 23...11/24/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2013 & 2014 were quite the banner years for cold recently. That -EPO has been doing wonders for November cold. The snow cover to our north will aide with the Arctic shot too, I fully expect teens in the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 5 hours ago, doncat said: ^^Lowest my station has ever been in November is 17 degrees...could be challenging that. 1976? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The Thanksgiving Arctic outbreak will get a boost from the 2nd highest mid-November NA snow extent of the last 13 years. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html Biggest and quickest snow and sea ice recovery ever going from late September to late November? We had our latest sea ice minimum this year, around the first day of fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 3 hours ago, uncle W said: Coldest temperatures for November in NYC since 1950...2018 could make this list on Thanksgiving day... 16...11/29/1955 17...11/30/1976 18...11/21/1987 20...11/15/1967 21...11/21/1959 21...11/24/1970 21...11/23/1972 22...11/24/1956 22...11/14/1986 22...11/25/2005 22...11/19/2014 23...11/22/1989 23...11/28/1996 23...11/24/2000 23...11/22/2008 23...11/24/2013 Coldest maximums since 1960 for November in NYC... 11/22...32 in 1964 11/22...32 in 1972 11/22...32 in 2008 11/23...31 in 1989 11/24...30 in 2013 11/28...31 in 1996 11/29...28 in 1955 11/30...28 in 1958 11/30...27 in 1976 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 FV3-GFS is close to a One-Two-Punch scenario along mid-atlantic and northeast November 29th & Dec 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Dino said: FV3-GFS is close to a One-Two-Punch scenario along mid-atlantic and northeast November 29th & Dec 2nd. That’s so far why not pay attention to Tuesday’s system. It could trend 30-50 miles south and at least you’ll have white rain, possibly more if it develops stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: That’s so far why not pay attention to Tuesday’s system. It could trend 30-50 miles south and at least you’ll have white rain, possibly more if it develops stronger. Behave yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: 1976? That's just before my records started lol....1987 is the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 hour ago, doncat said: That's just before my records started lol....1987 is the record. Was that around the Vets Day snowstorm? I think that fringed us with a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Behave yourself Is that Tony? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or about 3degs. BN, despite some very low readings for two days. Month to date is -1.9[47.8]. Should be -2.2[45.7] by the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Was that around the Vets Day snowstorm? I think that fringed us with a couple inches. Yes I did record 2" of snow around vets day...the record cold was around a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 The Euro has us close to the lowest 850 mb temperatures during November since the 1950's. It has OKX 850 mb temperatures getting down to -18c to -19c early on Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Latest tellies this morning look very good PNA is rising NAO is falling AO is tanking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Latest tellies this morning look very good PNA is rising NAO is falling AO is tanking 88 = real question for us uninformed,,,,,,what are Tellies ? Weeklies ? Are they the same thing ? Where can one find them ? thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 MOS numbers hinting at the potential first NYC drop below 20 degrees in November since 1987. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC NAM MOS GUIDANCE 11/19/2018 1200 UTC DT /NOV 19/NOV 20 /NOV 21 /NOV 22 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 40 47 33 38 17 TMP 46 46 45 45 44 43 42 41 45 44 42 39 37 36 35 35 36 34 31 25 19 DPT 40 40 40 39 39 38 37 35 34 31 29 25 24 23 23 21 19 17 14 5 -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 = real question for us uninformed,,,,,,what are Tellies ? Weeklies ? Are they the same thing ? Where can one find them ? thanks in advance Let’s just ban that awul word. Hes talking about teleconnections. Tellies sounds like he’s talking about the telletubbies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s just ban that awul word. Hes talking about teleconnections. Tellies sounds like he’s talking about the telletubbies Or slang for hotel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Pattern looks quite locked and loaded by November 29/30. The only thing working against us is climo (averages are almost 50F). Also I wouldn't be surprised to see the systems next week trend south as the strong -NAO begins to exert its influence. Test Gfs strongly suggests that possibility. However snow would still be unlikely due to a lack of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 after this November the decade average temperature will drop and snowfall will go up...since the 1950's November is averaging 47.8 in NYC...2018 will be well below that...it is possible we could see the coldest Thanksgiving on record...the coldest was 19 in 1876 and another year...the 2010's will be the first decade to average at least an inch of snow since the 1930's...the average minimum should drop a degree to the 1960's average... decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall... 1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0.............................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9" 1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8" 1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3" 1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3" 1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2" 1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1" 1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2" 1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6" 1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5" 1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3" 1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3" 1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6" 1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3" 2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace 2010's.....47.9.....51.9.....43.9.....70.1.....29.5.....74.....22.....2.96".....0.7".....2010-2017 1870- 2009........46.2...........................69.7.....25.6........................3.55".....0.8" 1980- 2009........48.0...........................71.5.....27.5........................4.05".....0.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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