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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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The coming rainstorm has been getting underway across the South. Already, Atlanta has picked up 0.16" rain and Athens, GA has received 0.13". Periods of light rain have brought 0.02" to Nashville. In such cities as Atlanta, Florence, Greensboro, and Raleigh, 2.00"-3.00" rain is likely from the coming storm.

The GFS has moved into better agreement with the NAM overnight. It still appears that the NYC Metro Area and nearby region will likely pick up 0.50" to 1.00" rain with local amounts as high as 1.50".

Finally, New York City's Central Park continues to await its first freeze. Outside the City, temperatures were in the 20s at many locations. At 6 am, temperatures included: Danbury: 24°, Newark: 33°; Poughkeepsie: 24°, Westhampton: 21°, and White Plains: 29°. Following the storm, an even colder air mass should move across the region.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Long range guidance keeps shifting colder. A record November 588 dm ridge builds near the UK this week. So we get a colder -EPO/-NAO pattern. These extreme blocking patterns have become the new normal.

IMG_0324.thumb.PNG.2f14ff1d5919d993d2f9fe54de77e2e0.PNG

 

 

 

 

 

Euro has the NAO, AO and PNA staying favorable. Way different than the original forecast.

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32 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has the NAO, AO and PNA staying favorable. Way different than the original forecast.

It would fit with our new 2010's fall climatology around here. November has been the only fall month able to generate cold for us.

NYC fall 2010's cold months

Sep.... 1 year just -0.2

Oct.....0 years

Nov... 4 years through Nov 17

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20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Got down to 22 last night. First real hard freeze of the season. 

Looks like a pattern shift to a more mild, less stormy regime will build in for Turkey week.

 

Not sure about a mild regime

Euro tellies show the NAO, AO and PNA favorable.

Maybe a very brief warm-up but nothing prolonged.

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39 minutes ago, Dino said:

Storm thread for Thur/Friday?  Snow potential....

Not sure if it's thread worthy just yet but the GFS and the GGEM have a solid front end dump N&W on Thursday afternoon and evening. Issue will be getting the column saturated before the warm air aloft takes over. 

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