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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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2 hours ago, Cfa said:

Snow showers? Keep em. It’s 50 degrees here.

*Although, I have seen flurries with temps this warm, twice. I recall reading somewhere (years ago) that NYC actually holds the record for the warmest temp (49/50 degrees) where snowfall was officially observed, idk how true that is, but it’s plausible as I’ve seen it.

About 10 years ago driving through NW Jersey I hit a 50°(car thermo) snow squall. Temp dropped like 10° instantly. Pretty cool stuff.

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12z EPS continues the mid-November cool down longer than it did a few days ago. Sometimes the EPS is too fast to moderate a cold pattern. It's a departure from much of this year with the WAR correcting stronger in the 6-10 day range.

New run

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.thumb.png.2a6eb74f8b2d9c080a96366c86aa6bdc.png

Old run

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.thumb.png.fd53f250d0d377040ce0890dcba0cd81.png

 

 

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Thought they might issue a freeze warning for NYC but guess we will be a touch too mild. I actually still have a few peppers outside still holding on. Freeze warning for southern Westchester, Hudson, eastern Essex, NJ.

Has Nassau County technically had a freeze yet?

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New York City may flirt with its first 32° reading this season tonight. The 18z GFS MOS forecasts a low of 32° tomorrow morning. Should the temperature reach freezing, 2018 would register its second earliest first freeze during the last five years.

First Freeze Dates:

2013: November 12: 31°
2014: November 18: 24°
2015: November 24: 32°
2016: December 9: 29°
2017: November 10: 25°

The next 7-14 days will likely feature generally below normal readings. As a result, the probability that November will actually wind up cooler than normal on average despite the 16th warmest first week on record, has increased. The implied probabilities based on sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance are as follows:

Below Normal: 55%

Below 47°: 49%
48° or above: 42%

Estimated range: 45.8° - 48.5°

During the cold stretch, there is a small possibility that New York City could see its first measurable snowfall. It very likely wouldn't amount to much, but some EPS members hint at it. Afterward, the guidance leans toward a warmup during the last week of the month. The possibility that the cold gives way to warmer than normal temperatures would fit the outcome that followed the cold second half of October.

In terms of precipitation, New York City's annual precipitation has now increased to 53.79". That ties 2018 with 2014 as New York City's 20th wettest years on record. Around the region, total precipitation amounts include:

Allentown: 56.33" (5th wettest year)
Atlantic City: 54.40" (5th wettest year)
Bridgeport: 49.51" (9th wettest year)
Islip: 51.84" (14th wettest year)
New York City: 53.79" (20th wettest year)
Newark: 46.90" (29th wettest year)
Philadelphia: 49.70" (14th wettest year)
Poughkeepsie: 48.64" (11th wettest year)

In addition, Baltimore, Charleston (WV), and Reading are within 3" or less of their annual precipitation records.

Late Monday night into Tuesday could see another potent storm bring a 0.50" to 1.50" rain from Philadelpia to Boston. Areas south and east of these cities would likely see the higher amounts.

Based on both the historical (1869-2017) and recent (1971-2017) data for the 11/11-12/31 period, the implied probabilities for New York City's total 2018 rainfall are:

55.00" or more: Historical: 98%; 1971-2017: 98%
60.00" or more: Historical: 44%; 1971-2017: 56%
65.00" or more: Historical: 1%; 1971-2017: 4%

Least 11/11-12/31 precipitation: 1.39", 1939
Most 11/11-12/31 precipitation: 14.99", 1983

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2 hours ago, tim said:

...i'm @ 31.9*..KFOK @ 34*..gabreski got down to 26* @ 5am..less wind today will make it 

easier to bag some leaves..but will hold off another week..still not 100% down.

My low was 32.5° at around 2:30 AM, temp started slowly rising afterwards. And KFOK never ceases to amaze me.

56 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Got down to 31 here. NWS was on the money with central park just missing 32

I’m surprised they didn’t issue at least a freeze watch.

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