mattie g Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and EPS have a coastal next Tuesday. Too warm for everyone, even if the far N+W crew, but worth keeping an eye on. 850s below freezing for the mountains and foothills, but boundary layer is a furnace. Really hope this active pattern is a sign of the future. Has the feel like we’re going to be tracking D1, D3, D5, and a D10 threat all at the same time this winter at some point. I honestly think we’re going to be exhausted by the middle of February. We’ll have a chance to recover at some point (mid-January or thereabouts), but the break will be short-lived because the pattern will reload big time, and it’ll be obvious pretty soon after we relax. Whether we score is another question, but the tracking will be on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Wow, I have to think if I ever saw it modeled this cold in November around here this far out. The animation is drowl worthy. If this was middle Jan with snow on ground I can only imagine the temps. Oh, I laugh when I see the text Ben uses to describe things, "coldest air on the globe " :-) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Trying to learn a bit: It appeared to me that the 06z GFS was really close to a storm around Day 9. Would have a stronger vort pass done something? Here is the appropriate map from TT (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Would need more vorticity on the E side of the trough aka get it to neg tilt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Would need more vorticity on the E side of the trough aka get it to neg tilt. I would think you would need that Western ridge to be a little further West so that they would be more of a sharper trough in the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Trying to learn a bit: It appeared to me that the 06z GFS was really close to a storm around Day 9. Would have a stronger vort pass done something? Here is the appropriate map from TT (I think). Compare it to the 0z euro which does have a storm. Euro has the trough axis much farther west, hence allowing the storm to track the coast. With the trough axis on the GFS, it’s a fish storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I would think you would need that Western ridge to be a little further West so that they would be more of a sharper trough in the East Well yeah, but if what I said was true you’d still get a stronger low to spin up at some point. Like you said though for it to benefit us we’d need other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Both GFSes took a step toward the euro with a coastal next Tuesday. FV3 has nuisance flurries in the VA Foothills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Yeah that trof axis on the gfs is much too far to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 And now euro goes toward the GFs with a total fish. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 i have no idea what this means - but it think that means its gonna get cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 All this rain and it's suddenly going to break dry when cold? It's November so there's probably something about it there but it would be a good sign for the Winter if we could get a first snowstorm in about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: All this rain and it's suddenly going to break dry when cold? It's November so there's probably something about it there but it would be a good sign for the Winter if we could get a first snowstorm in about 10 days. We just need a continuous set of storminess, which has not been too difficult this year. I think we had one dry set right in July and then never looked back. Timing means everything and the more opportunities we have, the better. We get some blocking to slow the cold exit.... we get the snow. We do not need any storm in 10 days to make me feel we do not have good signs! There are so many good signs every Met, outside the NWS, has been pointing to a snowy winter.. that is PLENTY of signs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 A day like today where it's cold at the surface "bone chilling" with steady rain, is nothing like the last few Winter's at all. (I actually haven't seen this in about 10 years), low level steady cold, (that 32 mixing stuff not happening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: We just need a continuous set of storminess, which has not been too difficult this year. I think we had one dry set right in July and then never looked back. Timing means everything and the more opportunities we have, the better. We get some blocking to slow the cold exit.... we get the snow. We do not need any storm in 10 days to make me feel we do not have good signs! There are so many good signs every Met, outside the NWS, has been pointing to a snowy winter.. that is PLENTY of signs! Feels like we need this in any winter given how we can fail on any storm, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 We usually see our first flakes out here around mid November. And with the upcoming pattern I think that will be the case again. Frontal passage or streamer being the most likely culprit as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Euro has mid-upper 30s for highs and low 20s for lows next Tuesday/Wednesday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has mid-upper 30s for highs and low 20s for lows next Tuesday/Wednesday. Excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 18z GFS trying to get a frisky for midweek next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: 18z GFS trying to get a frisky for midweek next week. lol it’s a nuke. Gimme that in another 3-4 weeks please. Tracks overhead, but dumps on Garrett county and WV mountains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Mid Atlantic Winter https://imgur.com/a/BKWoj0k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol it’s a nuke. Gimme that in another 3-4 weeks please. Tracks overhead, but dumps on Garrett county and WV mountains. Isnt this where we take the GFS precip and Euro temps and call it a day? :) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Isnt this where we take the GFS precip and Euro temps and call it a day? I think the storm 2-3 days after this one has the best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I think the storm 2-3 days after this one has the best chance. Always the storm after the storm... Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 How many true coastal storms did we have over the summer months that led to our very wet summer?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Always the storm after the storm... Lol Look at it though, lingering -PNA https://imgur.com/a/0aJAy0n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Feels like we need this in any winter given how we can fail on any storm, lol We can fail with any storm but all long range guidance is now pointing towards higher odds of failing less often so there's that. Miller As are great because you can extrapolate radar instead of praying for redevelopment in time. We'll be able to watch giant slugs of cold rain propagate from the deep south right into our yards! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 FF a month and this thread would be blowing up every few hours with model updates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We can fail with any storm but all long range guidance is now pointing towards higher odds of failing less often so there's that. Miller As are great because you can extrapolate radar instead of praying for redevelopment in time. We'll be able to watch giant slugs of cold rain propagate from the deep south right into our yards! Sweet mercy I am so done with that...See, I'm still young in the snow tracking game, so the last two years have taught me some hard snow lessons about that! (I still can't look at snowmaps without flashbacks...traumatized! hahaha) So if you have a Miller A...it's more about those slugs of moisture coming from the south than timing the "bomb" off the coast? (So in other words...with those, we don't have to worry as much about it "bombing too late and hitting NE"?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We can fail with any storm but all long range guidance is now pointing towards higher odds of failing less often so there's that. Miller As are great because you can extrapolate radar instead of praying for redevelopment in time. We'll be able to watch giant slugs of cold rain propagate from the deep south right into our yards! Sweet mercy I am so done with that...See, I'm still young in the snow tracking game, so the last two years have taught me some hard snow lessons about that! (I still can't look at snowmaps without flashbacks...traumatized! hahaha) So if you have a Miller A...it's more about those slugs of moisture coming from the south than timing the "bomb" off the coast? (So in other words...with those, we don't have to worry as much about it "bombing too late and hitting NE"?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now