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Hurricane Michael

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Yes HiRes NAM keeps wanting to drop 7-10 inches on northern NC and southside VA really ramping up the band leftover from the eyewall..

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

3" per hour rain rates us_model-en-087-0_modusarpd_2018101101_18_480_216.thumb.png.e0abcde627bc94ab53f4a4672b66a2d1.png

when I see all those streaks out in eastern NC I see tornados .... if you find yourself in a tornado warning tomorrow you should treat it as if it is verified because they will happen fast and most radar indicated tornados will probably be real.....

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5 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

It’s actually not unusual to have a Gulf landfalling hurricane impact upstate SC. 10 years ago when I worked for Greenville County we were working on our Hazard Vulnerabilty Assessment and we looked at the impacts of hurricanes on the upstate.  Using historical data from the NWS we studied every named tropical system that had passed within 50 miles of downtown Greenville, SC.  Amazingly almost all were from Gulf landfalling hurricanes.  Very few were Atlantic landfalling hurricanes.  That probably does not hold true for NC but for the upstate of SC, Gulf hurricanes have presented the greatest threat.  Of course, to your point, I would bet few if any were still TS when they passed near Greenville. 

Interesting, indeed. 

My 1st thought is this might be due to the angle of approach of Atlantic landfalling storms. The majority are typically going more N or NNE than W at landfall, and as a result, rarely get enough inland to cause significant impacts to upstate SC. (Hugo being the exception of course)

And then you have gulf landfalling storms, which always have to contend with the eastern flow once they go inland. So the chances of the center going over the upstate are probably better (statistically) for a gulf storm than an atlantic storm.

On another note, I really liked your post and how it gave another viewpoint that wasn't condescending or combative in any way. Some of us around here could learn from that. B)

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47 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

It’s actually not unusual to have a Gulf landfalling hurricane impact upstate SC. 10 years ago when I worked for Greenville County we were working on our Hazard Vulnerabilty Assessment and we looked at the impacts of hurricanes on the upstate.  Using historical data from the NWS we studied every named tropical system that had passed within 50 miles of downtown Greenville, SC.  Amazingly almost all were from Gulf landfalling hurricanes.  Very few were Atlantic landfalling hurricanes.  That probably does not hold true for NC but for the upstate of SC, Gulf hurricanes have presented the greatest threat.  Of course, to your point, I would bet few if any were still TS when they passed near Greenville. 

Same rings true for WNC as well. I always think back to Ivan and Frances hitting days apart, and the sheer flooding it caused around here. 

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I will say that with Florence the winds verified from models in Union County NC.   I posted screenshots of official winds back then and we were forecasted for 35-40 gusts at most (models showed higher like 60’s) and we had gusts well into the 40’s and 50’s with sustained in the high 20’s to low 30’s before the main winds arrived and absolutely had gusts over 60.  At this point I don’t discount any model and the potential.  

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The ilm County Warning Area will
continue to remain in the favorable location for embedded quick
tornadic spin-ups beginning prior to sunrise Thu and continuing
until Michael's center pulls away to the NE by late Thu aftn or
early evening. No major changes need for temps.

coastal Flood Warning
for Brunswick coast as strong on shore winds are expected to
cause moderate flooding during high tide on thurs mid to late
morning. The latest official NHC forecast brings the center of
Michael across the inland County Warning Area in the 16-20z Thursday. With its
approach, surf conditions will continue to deteriorate, with
breaking waves likely to reach as high as 8 feet on Thursday.
Therefore a high surf advisory has been raised and will remain
in effect into Thursday night. For the remainder of today and
tonight, guidance and radar trends indicate that shower activity
will remain scattered in nature. However within those showers,
the potential will exist for brief, very heavy rain, and a Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect through 2 am Friday. As Michael
accelerates to the northeast and approaches the eastern
Carolinas, rainfall will expand in areal coverage from SW to NE
beginning Thursday morning. The highest rainfall amounts are
expected to occur west of the I-95 corridor, where 3-4" amounts
will be common, but locally as high as 5-6". These amounts will
trend lower further east, with an average of 0.75-1.0" along the
immediate coast.

Much drier air will wrap
around the back end of Michael in deep northwest winds. Complete change
in air mass as pcp water values will drop down to less than a
half inch by daybreak Fri.


Looking forward to fall temps! 

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Impressively, radar estimates shows a widespread 3-5"+ of rain across Metro Atlanta, with the highest amounts along / NW of I-85.

There may not have been tropical storm winds, but the precipitation amounts certainly overachieved.

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With 1.06" rain through 5:54 am today from Michael, Asheville's total precipitation for 2018 has reached 57.82". 2018 now ranks as Asheville's 6th wettest year on record.

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Hi Res Models still hold on to the band of intense wind developing over west central NC and then bring it east with gust to 60-80 mph....still the local NWS offices think its overdone and they are probably right....there may be a few rogue gust to 70-75 but generally I wouldnt expect more than 40-50, 60 max.....still that will be enough to drop trees etc. Sig Tor values over central and eastern NC are still 3-5 and there will probably be a few tornados today....we will know if the hi res models are onto something by mid day as thats when we should see winds picking up along the I 77 corridor....

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With this said by news media and others behind the scenes, to be worse/ more noticeable than with Florence, I think a lot of Piedmont’er and especially Triangle folks are about to be surprised. Many business and university systems (like NCSU), that closed with Florence are open for business so far. Not really sure why. I think there’s a lack of knowledge and I have definitely seen it on social media. People are still somehow completely unaware. People were shocked when schools closed. Unleashing tons of confusion.  The Triangle nearly felt Florence. The gusting wasn’t bad. This could be double. 

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FWIW, the wind maps seem to be overdone for everyone outside of the center core. I never got a TS force gust here in N ATL like the maps said, unless that is supposed to come later.

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TS Warnings are now up for most of NC.  Heavy rain bands with lightning moving through Randleman now. (15 miles south of Greensboro)

nwshaz.conus.png

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19 minutes ago, a5ehren said:

FWIW, the wind maps seem to be overdone for everyone outside of the center core. I never got a TS force gust here in N ATL like the maps said, unless that is supposed to come later.

I have no idea on that. What I do know is that the core is to pass over the Triangle area.  And the public is practically ignoring this whole thing. I think it’s Flo apathy. But this will be windier. Idk how people survive these days. 

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32 minutes ago, a5ehren said:

FWIW, the wind maps seem to be overdone for everyone outside of the center core. I never got a TS force gust here in N ATL like the maps said, unless that is supposed to come later.

The ATL NWS obs show several 36mph+ gusts.. exactly like hrrr showed so hrrr has been verifying away from core and in every area I’ve checked within 5-10mph

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This is from the GSP forecast discussion this morning:

KAVL is already gusting to 30kt, earlier than anticipated (which would have
impacts up the French Broad and into the Upstate with the gap
winds). Unfortunately, the HRRR may be onto something, and will
watch closely through the morning and update winds as necessary.
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58 minutes ago, Regan said:

With this said by news media and others behind the scenes, to be worse/ more noticeable than with Florence, I think a lot of Piedmont’er and especially Triangle folks are about to be surprised. Many business and university systems (like NCSU), that closed with Florence are open for business so far. Not really sure why. I think there’s a lack of knowledge and I have definitely seen it on social media. People are still somehow completely unaware. People were shocked when schools closed. Unleashing tons of confusion.  The Triangle nearly felt Florence. The gusting wasn’t bad. This could be double. 

I have a good idea why.  Florence was being tracked and hyped in the news almost 10 days away from landfall.  There was a LOT of build up leading to the storm and people were lined up at gas stations, groceries for water, etc...  Michael popped up (seemingly overnight) and many people (including the news) didn't pay much attention to it since it was in the Gulf.  There wasn't the same hype and buildup until 1-2 days ago...  Plus, typically a storm traveling this far really doesn't give us much impact . This is a new scenario. (for most people)

Back to the meteorology:  I do think the triangle will have gusty winds similar to Florence...  But I'm still not sold on the gusts advertised by high res models on the backside.  I definitely think we see some strong gusts as winds shift on the backside and with frontal passage, and a couple big bursts will be possible, but I don't think it will be as widespread.

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9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I have a good idea why.  Florence was being tracked and hyped in the news almost 10 days away from landfall.  There was a LOT of build up leading to the storm and people were lined up at gas stations, groceries for water, etc...  Michael popped up (seemingly overnight) and many people (including the news) didn't pay much attention to it since it was in the Gulf.  There wasn't the same hype and buildup until 1-2 days ago...  Plus, typically a storm traveling this far really doesn't give us much impact . This is a new scenario. (for most people)

Back to the meteorology:  I do think the triangle will have gusty winds similar to Florence...  But I'm still not sold on the gusts advertised by high res models on the backside.  I definitely think we see some strong gusts as winds shift on the backside and with frontal passage, and a couple big bursts will be possible, but I don't think it will be as widespread.

Yeah its hard to believe the high res. But lets check into their verification.  So far the 06z HRRR run has verified in most places with its wind gusts within 5-10mph.

Something else I have noticed in the past with the HRRR is that it usually locks in rather firmly in the 8-10 hour mark.  And that normally happens by way of a big trend in the 14-8 hour range. 

 

Here is the latest 5 runs of the HRRR:

trend.thumb.GIF.3e475b49aef1980ac7c7a94a992ab5a5.GIF

 

We will see what comes of this. But that is a very obvious and large trend back to some impressive wind gusts.

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Wondering if the gusts will be more like straight line winds with the fropa as the storm pivots out of the region

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Some additional interesting discussion on the winds from GSP:

Of specific concern is the HRRR, while perhaps overdone,
which gives upwards of 50kt gusts spreading across the Piedmont from
the western Upstate this morning toward the I-77 corridor early this
afternoon.
Messaging this is difficult because TS probs from NHC
actually *decreased* with the 11p advisory, but they take into
account really only the immediate sustained wind radii associated
with the wind ball itself and not necessarily any extratropical
elements *OR* the gusts. Additionally, the gradient winds over the
mountains (Balsams, Blacks, and points north - not Smokies) will be
just as strong as winds in the Piedmont, with possibly higher gusts
from that LLJ. With this, without having a better option (we are
prevented from issuing a Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning if there
are Tropical headlines in effect), have opted to expand the TR.W
across a good chunk of the area. We know this is a very short-fused
lead time and is likely confusing and maybe not even the best
option, but given the saturated soils and potential impacts (there
will certainly be trees down), feel this is the prudent action.

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5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Intensifying and dropping 3 clicks to a 989? Is this really going to happen over land?

It has before but no. That is the same time each image. Its the HRRR trend not a progressive run.  So instead of 991mb the HRRR shows 989 at the same hour.

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Best wind is currently south of the center as the dry air wraps in seeing reports of 55-60ish type gust but a lot of station are reporting N/A since power is out.....this wind max will rotate through SC so places like Columbia wont peak their gust till the center is north of them, another thing to look for is the pressure leveling or even dropping a few MB's this will indicate its transition to extra tropical is starting.....the earlier that happens the more likely the bigger hi res winds are....

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