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George BM

October Discobs Thread

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Day 6/7 need to be watched for our first chance at a trackable storm for the Western burbs, and maybe a 'first-flakes' thing for others as well. There is a signal and EPS members jumped on board a little at 12z. Nothing to hype up but something I'll be watching carefully, especially given that I now live closer to the western burbs. ^_^

EURO Control:

 

eurocontrol21.PNG

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Few counties changed from Frost Advisories to Freeze Warnings per LWX:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
209 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018



VAZ050>052-055-056-501-502-220215-
/O.UPG.KLWX.FR.Y.0004.181022T0400Z-181022T1400Z/
/O.EXA.KLWX.FZ.W.0008.181022T0400Z-181022T1400Z/
Orange-Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Stafford-
Spotsylvania-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-
Including the cities of Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Falmouth,
Fredericksburg, Warrenton, and Turnbull
209 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Freeze Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight
to 10 AM EDT Monday. The Frost Advisory is no longer in effect.

* TEMPERATURES...As low as 32.

* IMPACTS...Freezing temperatures could kill sensitive
  vegetation and damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost
  could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation.

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro verbatim would be fun Saturday evening. Heavy rain with temps west of 95 low to mid 40s with wind gusts over 50 mph 

CMC never fails to impress...has a 967 low over @C.A.P.E. house.  High elevation snows and 2-4" of rain over the region....gale/storm force winds.  Will be fun to track the first coastal of the season!

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second frost of October incoming.... in patches anyways. Might be more widespread than last time.

Currently brrr outside with a 46/32 split

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Day 6/7 need to be watched for our first chance at a trackable storm for the Western burbs, and maybe a 'first-flakes' thing for others as well. There is a signal and EPS members jumped on board a little at 12z. Nothing to hype up but something I'll be watching carefully, especially given that I now live closer to the western burbs. 
EURO Control:
 
eurocontrol21.thumb.PNG.3ade8256740d7b80caecff10467c1eb5.PNG



GEFS getting onboard... surprised less chatter, even though I realize odds are stacked.

b8d195567db80cc5390145453332880d.png

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More counties added to Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
704 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018


MDZ003-004-503-VAZ505-506-220715-
/O.UPG.KLWX.FR.Y.0004.181022T0400Z-181022T1400Z/
/O.EXA.KLWX.FZ.W.0008.181022T0400Z-181022T1400Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Northwest Montgomery-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Germantown, Damascus, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn,
and Sterling
704 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Freeze Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight
to 10 AM EDT Monday. The Frost Advisory is no longer in effect.

* TEMPERATURES...In the low 30s.

* IMPACTS...Freezing temperatures will likely kill sensitive
  vegetation and could damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

 

 

 

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Wow...2 inch on the means east of the br in October.  Enjoy until 0z.

 

gefs_snow_mean_washdc_31_crop_560x508.png

P001+ 02 +010 some snow verbatim..010 later timing . This week looks to be a fun track week . I enjoy tracking any and all coastals. 

 

Screenshot_20181021-211236_Chrome_crop_540x1103.jpg

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Just for fun ...here's the surface analysis chart from October 29, 2011 . Only around 1000mb as it neared our latitude and dumped up to a foot in central Md ( Sabillasville, Md 12"). (5.6" imby)

ContinentalFronts_20111029-18Z.gif

Proof ..that even in October you don't necessarily need a sub 990 low and 1040 high to get big winter storm.

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More freeze warnings towards Richmond.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
813 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018


VAZ048-062-064-509>511-220815-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FZ.W.0003.181022T0600Z-181022T1200Z/
Fluvanna-Goochland-Caroline-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-
Including the cities of Goochland, Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland
813 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* AREAS AFFECTED: Parts of Central Virginia northwest of
  Richmond.

* HAZARDS: Freezing Temperatures.

* TEMPERATURES: Lower 30s.

* TIMING: Early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS: Crops and other sensitive vegetation may be killed if
  left exposed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.
 

 

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LWX now including that 4-letter word in their Saturday/Sunday forecast.

(snip)Friday into Saturday, the upper level ridge to the north will
start to break down as a upper level trough builds into the
Tennessee River Valley and the Smokey Mountains. A broad upper
level trough will be positioned over eastern Canada and northern
Maine. The upper level trough over Tennessee and Kentucky is
forecast to broaden and expand further southward into
Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to a tapping of the warm
and moist air from the Gulf Mexico. The models are pointing to
a low pressure system forming over the Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday and moving east to northeastward toward Florida and
Georgia early on Friday. This low pressure system is expected to
get caught up on the east side of the upper level trough and
move northward along the eastern sea board. Both the 00Z GFS and
Euro agree that a coastal storm will form and move northward
along the east coast. The GFS takes the upper level trough and
kicks it eastward forcing the coastal storm further off the
coast while the Euro keep the trough further inland over
Arkansas and Tennessee. The Euro is wetter and faster than the
GFS. The Euro brings the coastal storm northward and moves
precipitation into our region by 18Z (2pm) on Friday. The GFS
brings the outer bands of precipitation into the region around
6Z (2am) Saturday morning and remains further off the coast
leading to lesser rain event. Both models agree that some
semblances of precipitation will likely occur on Saturday with
there being a chance for precipitation starting sometime late
Friday afternoon into evening. The 1000 to 500mb thicknesses
seem to indicate that this weather event should be mainly a rain
event with some snow potential late Saturday into Sunday for
the higher elevation areas. A slight warm up will occur Friday
into Saturday as winds become more southerly.

Sunday, the coastal storm will shift further northeastward out of
our area. Some lingerings rain and snow showers over the higher
elevations will be possible on Sunday. The GFS tries to bring a
secondary cold front Sunday afternoon while the Euro tries to keep
this boundary mainly dry.(snip)

 

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VP2 said 32.0 on the nose before I left for work.  Might slip just under before sunrise.  But growing season is over IMBY

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1 hour ago, Jakkel138 said:

First sub-freezing night. 30/29. The central peninsula gets really cold at night here.

Yeah odd Mt Holly decided not to place this area in the frost advisory. maybe they thought the wind wouldn't lighten up in time.

32 here with frost. As you get down to Easton there is little to no frost with temps of 35-36.

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6 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

28.6 west side of Woodbridge.  Pretty good FREEZE and forecasted well. 

yes.  with the Freeze warning out of the way we can move onto other more interesting watches/warnings.  I would like to see some of the more rare ones happen.  Ice Storm Warning or maybe Freezing Fog....Heavy Freezing Spray perhaps...not likely but we can hope.   I like the lime green color of the Blizzard Watch.  So much promise and hope early in the season...like a sailor just going on shore leave.   

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49 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Hit 31 here with widespread frost.  Die mosquitoes!  Die!

^^^This^^^

Low was 27.9 degrees, second morning below freezing. High of 47.4 degrees broke the 'cool max' for the date, beating 1988's 49 degree reading.

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