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Rtd208

October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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Next 8 days averaging 52degs., or about 3degs. BN.

Month to date is +6.2[65.4].   Should be +3.2[60.8] by the 25th.  Note:  We need a 61.2 finish to make the TopTen.

Really dry for next 10 days, then potential storm.   Oct. usually has the fewest wet days anyway at 8 or 9, but they tend to be bigger events.   April has the most at 13 or 14, usually less precipitation for each event however.

50.3 here at 6am.

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For once, the EPS weeklies and CFS weeklies are in good agreement. El Nino trough in the East lingers into early November. Followed by a return of the ridge after. Pretty standard October into November El Nino response. 

Latest ECMWF weeklies show the cold pattern in the central & eastern U.S. persisting into early November, followed by a mid-month, #ElNiño-stoked warmup. 2nd half of November may not be ideal for East Coast winter weather events. pic.twitter.com/j3PgpkF2Dc
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19 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

3k NAM, 12k NAM and HRRR have the city making it into the 30s.

After one of the latest first temperatures under 50 around the area, a low below 40 would be early early for the 2010's in NYC.

The NAM MOS and GFS MOS both have a low of 39 in NYC on Thursday.

Average first temperature under 40 in NYC during the 2010's:

10-27

Earliest

10-13-12

Latest

11-08-17

 

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1 hour ago, rgwp96 said:

First frost of the year for me , I bottomed out at 35.3 . 

It probably got colder, that was at 7:00am.  Definitely feels like October.

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Just had a squall come through here. Very gusty winds accompanied by some sprinkles. Thought I might see a few flakes mixed in but surface temps are just too warm.

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Big storm is quite possible with the pattern depicted.

The timing is off on the last few runs. Trough is kicking it East off the Mid-Atlantic coast instead of trapping it and pulling it North. Either way looks like a big rainstorm for someone.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The timing is off on the last few runs. Trough is kicking it East off the Mid-Atlantic coast instead of trapping it and pulling it North. Either way looks like a big rainstorm for someone.

Agree with snow possible in New England

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2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Are you guys talking about the down the road towards Halloween or before that ?

The general threat area is the weekend before Halloween. 

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