beavis1729 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Lost in the tracking of the current storm is the first significant arctic outbreak of the season in the upper Midwest. Ely MN hit -36 this morning. As has been seen sporadically on some models over the past 5 days, there could be a more widespread arctic outbreak towards the end of January. Would like to stop seeing it getting pushed back in time before jumping all in. We’ll see. I just saw a separate thread started for this; if it becomes more certain, I’ll post some stats in there for ORD and other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 What a joke the models have been with this storm. Might as well not even look at models anymore if they are this bad. I'm just hoping at this point to get an inch with the deformation band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 25 years since January 1994. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Had it not been for the 6” snowfall last weekend, this winter would be a solid F for me right now. Reeling in big dog has been next to impossible. Even last weekends storm under performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Its almost 4pm and supposedly the precip is going to end around midnight. That leaves us with 8 hours. They are forecasting 6-8 unless they lower the amounts with their afternoon update. Since it hasnt even started snowing, there have to be some insane rates if we are to get 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Its almost 4pm and supposedly the precip is going to end around midnight. That leaves us with 8 hours. They are forecasting 6-8 unless they lower the amounts with their afternoon update. Since it hasnt even started snowing, there have to be some insane rates if we are to get 6 inches. Part 2 setting up in southern IL along the IL/IN border. There's still hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 minus 36's are hard to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, Chinook said: minus 36's are hard to get I had -32 this morning. Looks like a few degrees warmer tomorrow morning. Those locations to my east have some more varied terrain to let the cold air sink into the low spots. That gets them about 5 degrees extra cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Nice SFC temp gradient. 50 deg in 100 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 10:29 PM, XfireLOW said: I had -32 this morning. Looks like a few degrees warmer tomorrow morning. Those locations to my east have some more varied terrain to let the cold air sink into the low spots. That gets them about 5 degrees extra cooling. Looks like the coldest weekend temp was -42, at Babbitt and Crane Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 During the storm , tere was some talk about the police/ emergency managers closing roads because of near blizzard conditions, such that it becomes illegal to drive. Is the McDonald's drive-thru still open if it is illegal to drive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 So first snowstorm of the year 4-8" in the GTHA is about to be wiped out by a 12 hour rain storm followed by cold and dry conditions. Theres now talk of the pattern in February and March not being great/warm. Times a dwindling on this winter, within the next month averages start to quickly go up and spring is near. On that note, any hints at what Spring/Summer will entail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 26 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: So first snowstorm of the year 4-8" in the GTHA is about to be wiped out by a 12 hour rain storm followed by cold and dry conditions. Theres now talk of the pattern in February and March not being great/warm. Times a dwindling on this winter, within the next month averages start to quickly go up and spring is near. On that note, any hints at what Spring/Summer will entail? Everything ive seen points to colder than Average February. Where are you seeing talk of it being warm? Don't tell me let me guess the mid Atlantic forum lol. In if that's the case no worries here, the can of cold they wish more would be nothing but dry suppression up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Everything ive seen points to colder than Average February. Where are you seeing talk of it being warm? Don't tell me let me guess the mid Atlantic forum lol. In if that's the case no worries here, the can of cold they wish more would be nothing but dry suppression up here. haha ya browsing the other subs. The weather network up here is also starting to mention that February should be colder than average but that confidence is fading in that regard. They mention that a prolonged thaw might pop up in early-mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:21 PM, Chinook said: Since median is defined as a half-way point for a data set, I listed the "Minneapolis Area" snowfall totals in order (1884-1885 through 2017-2018) and the middle of this chart is the half-way point. The average of this data is 46.3", median could be about 42.8" - 43". Wow. Thanks for the stats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I think I am going to have a few complaints soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: I think I am going to have a few complaints soon. Can’t say I blame you. Short term model performance has been abysmal. You seem to be jackpotting on these storms 24 hrs out, only to have all hell break loose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Ill be the first to say it. I'm already looking for the first hints of spring weather on the models. This winter has been a dud in the GTA and I'm ready to move on from it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I'm trying not to complain, Ive had 2 decent systems, better than Ive had in 4 or 5 years, in the last 2 weeks. But the torch, 45 degrees and rain, today wiped out an 8 inch pack. Climo in my area doesn't favor big dogs but even when I get a semi big one I get the 850 blues after (cue Lightnin Hopkins). With a forecast clipper choo choo coming there's still hope for a decent pack for a few weeks. We usually do well ridin' the train. I'm going to give a mid-winter B- so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 45 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: I'm trying not to complain, Ive had 2 decent systems, better than Ive had in 4 or 5 years, in the last 2 weeks. But the torch, 45 degrees and rain, today wiped out an 8 inch pack. Climo in my area doesn't favor big dogs but even when I get a semi big one I get the 850 blues after (cue Lightnin Hopkins). With a forecast clipper choo choo coming there's still hope for a decent pack for a few weeks. We usually do well ridin' the train. I'm going to give a mid-winter B- so far. Ya, 7" of snow is now down to about 1.5" left with still several more hours left of warmth to go. With more rain in the forecast next week for the GTA this winter is about a C- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Found this on Reddit. The snowstorm is ongoing for the next 18000 years and one day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 6:26 PM, mississaugasnow said: haha ya browsing the other subs. The weather network up here is also starting to mention that February should be colder than average but that confidence is fading in that regard. They mention that a prolonged thaw might pop up in early-mid February. For godsakes if that happens let's just move into spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Sun angle talk is almost upon us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Mark my words. By 00z Tonight the Monday clipper hybrid will shift back south. Guaranteed. /S 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 hours ago, Malacka11 said: Mark my words. By 00z Tonight the Monday clipper hybrid will shift back south. Guaranteed. /S Looks like rain for most of the GTA and WNY now, most likely taking away the last bit of the snow pack followed by -10F and bare ground. Im offically throwing the towel. Im done with winter 2018-2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Brown ground again and Monday's clipper is a swing and a miss with more cold rain mixing with snow. The historic cold is backing down from earlier forecasts. This winter cannot end quick enough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 36 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: Brown ground again and Monday's clipper is a swing and a miss with more cold rain mixing with snow. The historic cold is backing down from earlier forecasts. This winter cannot end quick enough. Your area might be one of the suckier places to be coming up. Even with little/no snowcover, it's still going to get very cold with this kind of airmass and having the snowpack not far upstream compared to if it were, say, in Canada. Not much space for modification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I'm going to be completely honest here. I'm not looking forward to next week's cold. Between car troubles and pipes freezing cold is not fun when it gets to those temps. Plus the life-threatening wind chills and it just get's downright dangerous. From a weather nerd standpoint this cold is awesome. From an everything else perspective not so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I am going to laugh if we end up missing out on most of the snow locally only to get the shit cold after. Wasted pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Can't wait for the thaw during February. Even though N IL has gotten some good events, C Cook to the city have been screwed. My biggest snowfall of the year is 5". Zzz, I'm ready for 2/28/17 2.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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