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IWXwx

Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread

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We're back online just in time for the autumnal equinox.  The sudden change of temps is a good way to begin astronomical fall. I thought that I'd lost you guys (and gals)! I actually looked at a couple of other wx forums to see if I could locate anyone.

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10 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

We're back online just in time for the autumnal equinox.  The sudden change of temps is a good way to begin astronomical fall. I thought that I'd lost you guys (and gals)! I actually looked at a couple of other wx forums to see if I could locate anyone.

I don't think we're done with warmth but should be done with 90s now.   Wouldn't guarantee the last part though lol

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How many disastrous floods can we have within the same month? Tropical Storm Gordon, Wisconsin, Hurricane Florence, now central Oklahoma and the Dallas area recently.  Tropical Storm Gordon seems almost forgettable, but it did bring 9" of rain near Pensacola.

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1 hour ago, hlcater said:

Sounds like the EC is gonna get off hour cycles coming up here soon. Awesome!

 

Some of the best news I've come across this month! Interestingly I had the exact same phrase before I read Michael's "good news to start the day!" line.

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Oh boy.  I've always wondered how much the Euro would be prone to flip flopping if it ran 4 times a day.  Guess we'll find out.

I wonder if there's going to be 6 hourly data out to 240 hours on the 6z/18z cycles?   

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33 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Will take away some of the mystique of staying up late to watch the new Euro roll in, but having additional data to claw through will be fun.

I remember being on the boards when it only ran once a day.  Times have changed.

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It looks like Northern MN is in for a few inches of the good stuff tomorrow/tomorrow night. Good agreement with all of the guidance.

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I hope this look changes for November.  It has 3 more weeks.  There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201811.thumb.gif.47b366fe3eb2a01e05d9c2bc9086d794.gif

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I hope this look changes for November.  It has 3 more weeks.  There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201811.thumb.gif.47b366fe3eb2a01e05d9c2bc9086d794.gif

Ive heard that CFS has a warm bias (its usually the warmest of all seasonal models), but regardless of what it shows one thing you can absolutely bank on, is that it will change, and perhaps drastically.  You are right also in that there is no correlation between November and the following Winter, but like you I certainly prefer average or colder than average.

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6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ive heard that CFS has a warm bias (its usually the warmest of all seasonal models), but regardless of what it shows one thing you can absolutely bank on, is that it will change, and perhaps drastically.  You are right also in that there is no correlation between November and the following Winter, but like you I certainly prefer average or colder than average.

The elite/great winters (77-78, 13-14, etc) generally didn't have that warmth in the northern US in November.  Not that anyone has been calling for an all-time great winter.  

A cold November doesn't mean it will be a great winter, but all in all, yeah, I'd rather take my chances with that.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The elite/great winters (77-78, 13-14, etc) generally didn't have that warmth in the northern US in November.  Not that anyone has been calling for an all-time great winter.  

A cold November doesn't mean it will be a great winter, but all in all, yeah, I'd rather take my chances with that.

I would have to go back and look to be sure, but I know we discuss November and its correlation, or lack thereof, to the coming Winter, and like we already said, there really isn't one. Even at face value that CFS is 0.5° to 2゚C warmer than normal for November depending on area. Thats not exactly a blowtorch. Sometimes the colors of maps can be misleading.

 

Edit: i think I did a correlation between November snow and the following Winter snow, not sure if I did a temp correlation.

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19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I hope this look changes for November.  It has 3 more weeks.  There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201811.thumb.gif.47b366fe3eb2a01e05d9c2bc9086d794.gif

Colder than average after Nov 20th usually is a good sign.

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I'll be going out west to the mountains this winter to ski and board. Should be fun. Also went to Iceland this summer. Got to hike up Europes largest glacier and drink fresh water from it melting away before our eyes. By far the coolest place I've ever traveled. Here are a few of my favorite pictures. 

Image may contain: sky, outdoor and nature Image may contain: ocean, sky, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: mountain, sky, cloud, nature and outdoorImage may contain: 1 person, smiling, outdoor and nature

Image may contain: mountain, outdoor and natureImage may contain: sky, cloud, mountain, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: ocean, sky, outdoor, nature and water

Image may contain: ocean, cloud, sky, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: mountain, sky, nature and outdoorImage may contain: ocean, sky, beach, outdoor, nature and water

Image may contain: outdoor, water and natureImage may contain: mountain, outdoor and natureImage may contain: mountain, sky, cloud, outdoor and nature

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll be going out west to the mountains this winter to ski and board. Should be fun. Also went to Iceland this summer. Got to hike up Europes largest glacier and drink fresh water from it melting away before our eyes. By far the coolest place I've ever traveled. Here are a few of my favorite pictures. 

Image may contain: sky, outdoor and nature Image may contain: ocean, sky, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: mountain, sky, cloud, nature and outdoorImage may contain: 1 person, smiling, outdoor and nature

Image may contain: mountain, outdoor and natureImage may contain: sky, cloud, mountain, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: ocean, sky, outdoor, nature and water

Image may contain: ocean, cloud, sky, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: mountain, sky, nature and outdoorImage may contain: ocean, sky, beach, outdoor, nature and water

Image may contain: outdoor, water and natureImage may contain: mountain, outdoor and natureImage may contain: mountain, sky, cloud, outdoor and nature

Awesome pics!  

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10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Awesome pics!  

 

24 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Wow, that is spectacular!

Thanks! I've traveled quite a bit and Iceland is at the top of the list. Nothing really comes close to how much natural nature there is in that country. 

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On 10/14/2018 at 10:20 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

 

Thanks! I've traveled quite a bit and Iceland is at the top of the list. Nothing really comes close to how much natural nature there is in that country. 

If you haven't made it to New Zealand, add that one to the list. Trust me. 

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On 10/9/2018 at 11:19 PM, Hoosier said:

I hope this look changes for November.  It has 3 more weeks.  There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201811.thumb.gif.47b366fe3eb2a01e05d9c2bc9086d794.gif

With the s**t weather I'm having right now, I favor whatever gives me the most sunshine. I'm already counting down til Spring because this loathsome dunghole 7 day forecast has very little sunlight and a whole lotta the other! Draining is what I'd call it. Its gotten me to appreciate my beach Thanksgiving even more. In-between sucks, if its going to be dreary and depressing I rather get what Calgary just had with 40-60 cm of snow dumping or record shattering heat. I'd choose the latter though!

Yet again this October is shaping up to be a terrible one (below average temperatures). It seems the past 6 years is on repeat mode having the same months having the same anomalies. November has been warm. The Canadian Thanksgiving long weekend heat was insanely great (even saw a tower with a well-defined anvil) and I made sure to absorb all of its gloriousiness before the turdstorm came rushing in.

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6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I am going to Thailand, Indonesia, or New Zealand next year. Debating between those 3. 

Speculator pics! That is such a beautiful view. I'm big on travelling and exploring new areas myself. 

I went to Thailand this year for two weeks and I must say it was one of the best and most interesting experiences I've ever had. Going to a completely new environment and experiencing the different culture and atmosphere that was there is something to remember about. I would definitely recommend it. If you plan to go to Phuket or the surrounding area, I'd say a max of 2 or 3 days is all you need. 

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Interesting study that was posted in the CC forum.  It demonstrates not only an increase in tornado frequency east of the Plains, but an increase in favorable tornado environments as determined by STP.   Using STP isn't foolproof of course as we have seen days where it's sky high and nothing happens.  But it makes sense that higher STP accumulated over the long haul would lead to more activity.

The authors don't explicitly say that the trends are due to climate change, but that it is in line with modeled changes.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2.epdf?author_access_token=PQZthaEqlkut62uLi4HlpNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Ofpugx93Jq3uh7IKWsjvSCCm9cT6oavbBDxy4CNfmgPbnVGCtRW0GfAXKcI3DSQ1vbeVbyw-jzqriwQAlEDMNsLcaDsYkvTU-SaxpOcafW-Q%3D%3D

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