Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Not satisfied with December?

[CoalCityWxMan]

Well, on the bright side atleast next December has to be better then this one. 

[Chinook]

Interesting note: a temp of -49F at CYKJ (Key Lake, Saskatchewan) is the lowest Canadian temperature I can remember seeing in a couple of years. I don't necessarily keep track of all of the temperature in Canada, though.

[beavis1729]

Obviously grasping at straws here...but does anyone think that an outcome similar to 1984-85 is remotely possible?

That winter had an unacceptably warm December in the Midwest, but then things snapped around the new year. 

As an example: ORD only had 3.4" of snow for the season through December 30th, with a max snow depth of 1"...along with a ridiculous high/low temp of 69F/49F on 12/28/1984.  Then, from December 31st through February 14th, about 35" of snow fell...and the temp dropped to -27F on 1/20/1985...still the all-time record low at ORD.  From February 1st-9th, each day had a low temp of 3F or colder.  This 45-day period was about 8 degrees below normal, with snow cover the entire time...maxing at 15" depth on February 14th.  Then, winter ended abruptly after that.

 

[Jackstraw]

10 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Obviously grasping at straws here...but does anyone think that an outcome similar to 1984-85 is remotely possible?

That winter had an unacceptably warm December in the Midwest, but then things snapped around the new year. 

As an example: ORD only had 3.4" of snow for the season through December 30th, with a max snow depth of 1"...along with a ridiculous high/low temp of 69F/49F on 12/28/1984.  Then, from December 31st through February 14th, about 35" of snow fell...and the temp dropped to -27F on 1/20/1985...still the all-time record low at ORD.  From February 1st-9th, each day had a low temp of 3F or colder.  This 45-day period was about 8 degrees below normal, with snow cover the entire time...maxing at 15" depth on February 14th.  Then, winter ended abruptly after that.

 

My dogs, my bones and my beard and nature around here are hip to that 100%!

[Hoosier]

27 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Obviously grasping at straws here...but does anyone think that an outcome similar to 1984-85 is remotely possible?

That winter had an unacceptably warm December in the Midwest, but then things snapped around the new year. 

As an example: ORD only had 3.4" of snow for the season through December 30th, with a max snow depth of 1"...along with a ridiculous high/low temp of 69F/49F on 12/28/1984.  Then, from December 31st through February 14th, about 35" of snow fell...and the temp dropped to -27F on 1/20/1985...still the all-time record low at ORD.  From February 1st-9th, each day had a low temp of 3F or colder.  This 45-day period was about 8 degrees below normal, with snow cover the entire time...maxing at 15" depth on February 14th.  Then, winter ended abruptly after that.

 

Anything is possible.  Looking back more recently to 2014-15, it was a crappy December.  Things started to change in January and then it was the #1 or #2 coldest February in many areas.  That was in an El Nino year... not only did that Nino not weaken, but it kept on strengthening through winter 2014-15 and grew into the super Nino in time for winter 2015-16.

A 6-7 week stretch of consistent winter with no interruptions like what you mentioned is not easy to pull off in Chicago, nor is another February 2015.  I would keep expectations lower, but hopefully we get a nice stretch.

[RCNYILWX]

Anything is possible.  Looking back more recently to 2014-15, it was a crappy December.  Things started to change in January and then it was the #1 or #2 coldest February in many areas.  That was in an El Nino year... not only did that Nino not weaken, but it kept on strengthening through winter 2014-15 and grew into the super Nino in time for winter 2015-16.
A 6-7 week stretch of consistent winter with no interruptions like what you mentioned is not easy to pull off in Chicago, nor is another February 2015.  I would keep expectations lower, but hopefully we get a nice stretch.

I looked back at the recent weak low-moderate Ninos, and it shouldn't be surprising to get a prolonged mild/low snow stretch. A crappy December is common in these events, and I wish we had stuck to our guns from original outlook with statement about December potentially being mildest of the winter. You have to go back to 76-77 and 77-78 for wall to wall weak El Nino winters.

14-15 only had a T of snow and was +4.2 at ORD in December. First half of January was cold and fairly snowy but then it was mostly mild and it took until after GHDII for the extreme cold pattern to lock in. 04-05 had 27.8" of snow at ORD in January but very little in December and Feb. 02-03 had a long stretch of predominantly above normal from 12/10 to 1/9.

If the expected pattern flip this January does indeed get delayed til 2nd half of January, wonder if progression of this season will be more like 06-07. That had 5.8" at ORD on 12/1 and then no snow the rest of December. Only had 3.5" between 12/1 and 2/6/07, with February at -9.8 and 20.3" of snow. 94-95 was probably the worst recent low moderate Nino for the sub as a whole for snow, but it wasnt warm in Jan (+0.2) and Feb (-1.3) after a very mild Dec (+7 at ORD).

Perhaps the outlooks can do a better job of conveying to not be surprised with a long stretch of mild/low snow. Just in general, outside the lake belts at around this latitude, only the rarest winters (ie. 76-78, 13-14) have had wire to wire winter. I'd be surprised if we don't at least get into a fairly long noteworthy period of cold at some point this winter, with snow still a wild card.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[cyclone77]

How much longer until we have to start considering sun angle??  

[King James]

So much rain this winter in east central Illinois


.

[Hoosier]

11 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I looked back at the recent weak low-moderate Ninos, and it shouldn't be surprising to get a prolonged mild/low snow stretch. A crappy December is common in these events, and I wish we had stuck to our guns from original outlook with statement about December potentially being mildest of the winter. You have to go back to 76-77 and 77-78 for wall to wall weak El Nino winters.

14-15 only had a T of snow and was +4.2 at ORD in December. First half of January was cold and fairly snowy but then it was mostly mild and it took until after GHDII for the extreme cold pattern to lock in. 04-05 had 27.8" of snow at ORD in January but very little in December and Feb. 02-03 had a long stretch of predominantly above normal from 12/10 to 1/9.

If the expected pattern flip this January does indeed get delayed til 2nd half of January, wonder if progression of this season will be more like 06-07. That had 5.8" at ORD on 12/1 and then no snow the rest of December. Only had 3.5" between 12/1 and 2/6/07, with February at -9.8 and 20.3" of snow. 94-95 was probably the worst recent low moderate Nino for the sub as a whole for snow, but it wasnt warm in Jan (+0.2) and Feb (-1.3) after a very mild Dec (+7 at ORD).

Perhaps the outlooks can do a better job of conveying to not be surprised with a long stretch of mild/low snow. Just in general, outside the lake belts at around this latitude, only the rarest winters (ie. 76-78, 13-14) have had wire to wire winter. I'd be surprised if we don't at least get into a fairly long noteworthy period of cold at some point this winter, with snow still a wild card.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Good points

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

How much longer until we have to start considering sun angle??  

I notice it in January, especially later in the month.  Obviously not like what you see in March.

[andyhb]

2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

I bet you all anything this pattern gets cold and wet just in time for April, May and June.

Can we not...

[andyhb]

3 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

It was a joke.

So was mine to an extent, but still, please no.

[Hoosier]

Just now, andyhb said:

So was mine to an extent, but still, please no.

How about a snap transition from winter to summer?  

[CheeselandSkies]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How about a snap transition from winter to summer?  

Just had that, I'll take a hard pass.

[hlcater]

 

Hiema means winter - apparently. I couldn't latinify "winter" so I had to get google translate out.

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

How about a snap transition from winter to summer?  

I hope your computer melts down tonight!

[mimillman]

The 00z Euro...it's just so so so bad. This is incredibly demoralizing.

[KokomoWX]

1 hour ago, mimillman said:

The 00z Euro...it's just so so so bad. This is incredibly demoralizing.

I never could have imagined such an awful winter.  Indy recorded a 0.5" of snow for all of December.  While some had a decent November, Indy had just 0.4" leaving Indy still failing to reach the 1" mark for the season.  The good news is sunny and near 50 for the weekend allowing me to do a couple of nice bike rides.  

[michsnowfreak]

On 12/31/2018 at 10:31 PM, *Flash* said:

Random post...but just wanted to extend a shout-out from the TN Valley forum. On the six year anniversary of 12/26/12, the wife and I punched a B&B ticket from one Nashville to the other (i.e. Tennessee to Indiana). With our dates of travel February 10-12, we're hoping we can score some snow. *Fingers crossed* For those who remember that storm, I took my then fiancée up on a snowchase during which we mentally bookmarked several B&B's on route to Bloomington. First and last time I've driven in over a foot of snow. Down where I'm from, you gotta have a historic storm with drifts to measure snow in feet. At any rate, I know many are already cliff-diving based on December/how January 1-20 is looking, but if 2006-07 ends up being a top 2/3 analog for this winter, I must admit I'm optimistic about this forum's chances. While his winter has been its own analog, with so many amped telecons, you gotta think the dam is gonna break at some point.

Im sure the dam will break. After Jan 20th we should get some more sustained winter but there will be chances before then.

[King James]

So far this winter has been marked by rain and icy roads. My least favorite winter of all time so far. The lack of snow is one thing, that happens. But 3-4 bouts of freezing rains and fog is ridiculous. Like a really shitty October with 32 degree temps


.

[mimillman]

2 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

I never could have imagined such an awful winter.  Indy recorded a 0.5" of snow for all of December.  While some had a decent November, Indy had just 0.4" leaving Indy still failing to reach the 1" mark for the season.  The good news is sunny and near 50 for the weekend allowing me to do a couple of nice bike rides.  

Agree, definitely going to go for a nice run outside.

The Chicago suburbs were saved by November. The city, not so much. The big storm in November yielded about 2” downtown.

[mississaugasnow]

This winter is starting to really remind me of 2011-2012. I must say I enjoy watching those that predicted a frigid winter with snow get more and more upset. I respect those that have said they messed up and didn't foresee this happening. But those that have now dug in even deeper and seem to be lashing out by promising a massive back end of winter have put all the chips on the table and if wrong have a lot of apologizing to do. (Not because of wrong forecast, I understand its difficult to forecast. The arrogance though that anyone mentioning warmth doesn't know what he/she is talking about is annoying) 

Ive noticed the weather network up here is slowly changing the wording on what they anticipate. It is now a "more winter like pattern is expected for February, but we have lower than normal confidence"  

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, mimillman said:

Agree, definitely going to go for a nice run outside.

The Chicago suburbs were saved by November. The city, not so much. The big storm in November yielded about 2” downtown.

When adding up the smaller snows, downtown is likely still under 6" for the season.

Today is 37 days since the last calendar day 1" snow at ORD.  That streak looks to continue for a while.  Looking through the records, you'd be hard pressed to find such an early starting season shut off so abruptly. 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

This winter is starting to really remind me of 2011-2012.

Maybe my memory is just getting a bit fuzzy but at least for southern WI, it feels like we have been quite a bit wetter (both with rain and snow) than we were by this time in 2012. Of course I was living in Milwaukee (lake influence and all that) at the time so it may not be a 1:1 comparison for Madison.

It's odd to me that that winter is being brought up as an analog since at that point we were basically staying in strong Nina from year to year (epic tornadic activity in April 2011 followed by extremely warm and dry for the central CONUS throughout spring/summer '12, punctuated by more violent tornado outbreaks on the rare occasions that a system was able to pierce the ridge), whereas it seems (based on what I've read in the ENSO threads on this and other boards) we have been in this weird pseudo-Nino holding pattern for a while now, where the ocean is in an El Nino state but the atmospheric response isn't there.

[Hoosier]

As bad as it has been for Indianapolis, they have experienced even worse.  

The record for latest 1" calendar day snow was... get ready for it... March 17, 1973.  

The latest that the seasonal total reached 1" was on January 28, 1971.  IND is currently at 0.9", so they would have to go almost 4 more weeks without even a tenth of measurable snow to break that record, which seems unlikely.

[buckeye]

I'm trying to figure out where all the glass half full posts are suddenly coming from in the MA forum.     Gfs op at hr 360 has rain falling in OH and MI.   At 384 it's raining in the MA.  Only snow on the euro OP is new england and a small amount in the southern states around day 10 from a seemingly temporary deep trough dropping in.  Seems to be excitement over cold air building in Canada but who cares if it continually gets cut off by low pressure whipping across the conus.   How many times have we seen a brutally cold regime in Canada that never makes it south?

The gefs mojo loops into phase 7 and takes it back to 6.    The euro takes it through 8 for about a week, (ironically during a relatively benign mild forecast period), then it hightails it across the COD towards phase 4.     

NAO steadily positive.   Only bright spots are a forecasted negative AO and a dropping SOI.   

We've had winters in the past which were forecasted cold and snowy and ended up mild and boring.... the autopsy blamed a pac jet that never came off steroids.   I'm beginning to wonder if that might be the fate of this winter.   

Hopefully the glass half full is warranted.  I'd love to see a bout of snow and cold settle in around mid to late Jan and then exit mid Feb.   

[zinski1990]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

As bad as it has been for Indianapolis, they have experienced even worse.  

The record for latest 1" calendar day snow was... get ready for it... March 17, 1973.  

The latest that the seasonal total reached 1" was on January 28, 1971.  IND is currently at 0.9", so they would have to go almost 4 more weeks without even a tenth of measurable snow to break that record, which seems unlikely.

Wouldn't surprise me

[IWXwx]

[UMB WX]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im sure the dam will break. After Jan 20th we should get some more sustained winter but there will be chances before then.

SNE Sub-Forum is always a great read.  Whenever I'm trolling around over there the pattern is normally in the dumps and we're searching for anything positive going forward.   Good thing winter is flying by and we''ll know soon enough if the flip ever comes or if buckeye gets to start digging Koi Ponds in Feb.