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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Very interesting. Pretty much like the majority of previous euro runs, just 75 miles north. 

You beat me to it brother. All have taken a big step toward the Euro tonight, minus the wonky OP GFS. 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I believe that UKMET run is SW of the 12Z run by a bit

yeah the approach is a bit more from the south landfall point is maybe 20-30 miles south, but people need to keep in mind how that part of the coast is.....Cape Lookout to Cape Fear is only 90 miles as the crow flies. A 20-30 mile wide eye going right up the middle will basically put that entire stretch of coast in the inner core.....

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Just now, TheDreamTraveler said:

gifsBy12hr_12.gif

 

That will be a decent sized eye once the EWRC is complete. It seems to be making decent progress based off the GOES 16 rapid-scan data. Just need the remaining inner-eye to die off and then Florence will probably be off to the races. As I explained earlier, we may not see a potent increase in winds for a while (I'm assuming they've weakened), but I'd expect the pressure to start falling at a decent clip as that OEW starts contracting. 

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12 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

 

That will be a decent sized eye once the EWRC is complete. It seems to be making decent progress based off the GOES 16 rapid-scan data. Just need the remaining inner-eye to die off and then Florence will probably be off to the races. As I explained earlier, we may not see a potent increase in winds for a while (I'm assuming they've weakened), but I'd expect the pressure to start falling at a decent clip as that OEW starts contracting. 

I believe it may have been a storm last year, where the inner eyewall held on a little longer and disrupted the core longer than expected. 

just something to keep in mind when people expect a quick, clean ERC.

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Just now, irishbri74 said:

I believe it may have been a storm last year, where the inner eyewall held on a little longer and disrupted the core longer than expected. 

just something to keep in mind when people expect a quick, clean ERC.

Indeed! Florence had a nice tower go up in the inner eyewall about 40 minutes ago. Last I saw it's still spinning around, but its something like that which can delay the removal of the inner eyewall. Recon won't be back in for several more hours, but I'd expect at least some weakening (lower winds/higher pressure). The key to intensification will be how quickly winds can respond back up once the pressure begins to fall. Undoubtedly the wind field has expanded considerably with this EWRC, so that'll probably keep winds in check for a time. 

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8 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

I believe it may have been a storm last year, where the inner eyewall held on a little longer and disrupted the core longer than expected. 

just something to keep in mind when people expect a quick, clean ERC.

Guessing you’re probably talking about Irma. Which had lots of land and islands around it that continually kept disrupting various internal processes as well, as it was still dealing with the effects of Hispaniola as it began interacting with Cuba, and then later on began restregthening as it started to smash into Florida. Florence however will have a couple days of basically zero land interaction. EWRC tend to be finicky from what I have observed. And this very well could have a deleterious impact on the max potential strength of the system for the next half day or more, or it could all get finished up in the next couple hours. We’ll see later this morning. 

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55 minutes ago, senc30 said:

FV3 South and landfall at ILM

Which means the "new" GFS core is much closer to the EC and UK compared to the operational GFS and CMC.

Doesn't give one much credence to the current GFS solution..

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Guessing you’re probably talking about Irma. Which had lots of land and islands around it that continually kept disrupting various internal processes around it as well, as it was still dealing with the effects of Hispaniola as it began interacting with Cuba, and then later on began restregthening as it started to smash into Florida. Florence however will have a couple days of basically zero land interaction. EWRC tend to be finicky from what I have observed. And this very well could have a deleterious impact on the max potential strength of the system for the next half day or more, or it could all get finished up in the next couple hours. We’ll see later this morning. 

That would be it! 

 

Agree with everything you’re saying. I was just cautioning some people who may think  that it’s all a clean cut process,(not you or David) especially short term (6-18 hours ). Just trying to make sure others have realistic expectations. 

 

Once it does finish, she should have limited “negatives” to deal with. 

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Latest Ir shot shows new convection blowing up around the eye again, really giving it a pinhole look. Without microwave, hard to tell if original eyewall or new one wrapping up. 

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Hurricane watches have been issued

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the
United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to
the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United
States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the
North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.  Additional watches may be
required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 64.1 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Florence is expected to be an extremely
dangerous major hurricane through Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches
near Florence's track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and
northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

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Looks like the guidance made a shift SW towards the euro. Not a huge surprise I suppose. While I agree with Phil, the diffferences really showed in the strength of ridge, position of it, and the trough over the NS area that CSnavy pointed out. Those features I think were the bigger driver, but it all blends into the forecast. 

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