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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I believe that UKMET run is SW of the 12Z run by a bit

yeah the approach is a bit more from the south landfall point is maybe 20-30 miles south, but people need to keep in mind how that part of the coast is.....Cape Lookout to Cape Fear is only 90 miles as the crow flies. A 20-30 mile wide eye going right up the middle will basically put that entire stretch of coast in the inner core.....

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

You beat me to it brother. All have taken a big step toward the Euro tonight, minus the wonky OP GFS. 

I hope this doesn’t sneak up on your neighbors up in your area. This has the potential to bring major flooding to mtns and foothills of N.C. and VA

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Just now, TheDreamTraveler said:

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That will be a decent sized eye once the EWRC is complete. It seems to be making decent progress based off the GOES 16 rapid-scan data. Just need the remaining inner-eye to die off and then Florence will probably be off to the races. As I explained earlier, we may not see a potent increase in winds for a while (I'm assuming they've weakened), but I'd expect the pressure to start falling at a decent clip as that OEW starts contracting. 

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12 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

 

That will be a decent sized eye once the EWRC is complete. It seems to be making decent progress based off the GOES 16 rapid-scan data. Just need the remaining inner-eye to die off and then Florence will probably be off to the races. As I explained earlier, we may not see a potent increase in winds for a while (I'm assuming they've weakened), but I'd expect the pressure to start falling at a decent clip as that OEW starts contracting. 

I believe it may have been a storm last year, where the inner eyewall held on a little longer and disrupted the core longer than expected. 

just something to keep in mind when people expect a quick, clean ERC.

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Just now, irishbri74 said:

I believe it may have been a storm last year, where the inner eyewall held on a little longer and disrupted the core longer than expected. 

just something to keep in mind when people expect a quick, clean ERC.

Indeed! Florence had a nice tower go up in the inner eyewall about 40 minutes ago. Last I saw it's still spinning around, but its something like that which can delay the removal of the inner eyewall. Recon won't be back in for several more hours, but I'd expect at least some weakening (lower winds/higher pressure). The key to intensification will be how quickly winds can respond back up once the pressure begins to fall. Undoubtedly the wind field has expanded considerably with this EWRC, so that'll probably keep winds in check for a time. 

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8 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

I believe it may have been a storm last year, where the inner eyewall held on a little longer and disrupted the core longer than expected. 

just something to keep in mind when people expect a quick, clean ERC.

Guessing you’re probably talking about Irma. Which had lots of land and islands around it that continually kept disrupting various internal processes as well, as it was still dealing with the effects of Hispaniola as it began interacting with Cuba, and then later on began restregthening as it started to smash into Florida. Florence however will have a couple days of basically zero land interaction. EWRC tend to be finicky from what I have observed. And this very well could have a deleterious impact on the max potential strength of the system for the next half day or more, or it could all get finished up in the next couple hours. We’ll see later this morning. 

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Guessing you’re probably talking about Irma. Which had lots of land and islands around it that continually kept disrupting various internal processes around it as well, as it was still dealing with the effects of Hispaniola as it began interacting with Cuba, and then later on began restregthening as it started to smash into Florida. Florence however will have a couple days of basically zero land interaction. EWRC tend to be finicky from what I have observed. And this very well could have a deleterious impact on the max potential strength of the system for the next half day or more, or it could all get finished up in the next couple hours. We’ll see later this morning. 

That would be it! 

 

Agree with everything you’re saying. I was just cautioning some people who may think  that it’s all a clean cut process,(not you or David) especially short term (6-18 hours ). Just trying to make sure others have realistic expectations. 

 

Once it does finish, she should have limited “negatives” to deal with. 

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Looks like the guidance made a shift SW towards the euro. Not a huge surprise I suppose. While I agree with Phil, the diffferences really showed in the strength of ridge, position of it, and the trough over the NS area that CSnavy pointed out. Those features I think were the bigger driver, but it all blends into the forecast. 

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It is interesting (and good for people inland) that more models are showing a stall off-shore or coastal region.  This would lessen wind impacts well inland if it occurred.  It is a trend to keep watching.  I do believe NHC will adjust the track again with the 11AM update.  Less and less of the models are showing a track inland over central NC.  
Meanwhile, storm appears better organized than it did last night...  getting back together for more strengthening perhaps.

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First recon pass shows Florence several mb(951) and perhaps 10 mph weaker.  I figured even a bit less wind, but recon found 112 kt surface wind in the southeast quad.

IR loop shows the new, larger eyewall beginning to take over.  There is always some stubborn inner eyewall remnant convection that takes a while to disappear.

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