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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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Just now, ryan1234 said:

Can we stop it with this tomfoolery already? You're from NC, obviously. And they aren't wishcasting. The GFS has sorta been an outliner this whole time. It's hard to go against the Euro and most the hurricane modeling guidance. Not the mention the NHC. 

Yes I’ll stop.  The big difference is I don’t want it.  Back to it ladies and gents.

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7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Anyone post the 4 day rainfall total for NC , out through Monday  off GFS. Trying to see how much from the Raincaine , goofy thinks is gonna fall. Thanks

 

qpf_acc.us_ma (1).png

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7 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Can we stop it with this tomfoolery already? You're from NC, obviously. And they aren't wishcasting. The GFS has sorta been an outliner this whole time. It's hard to go against the Euro and most the hurricane modeling guidance. Not the mention the NHC. 

Not only that, but the 12z GFS now takes Florence SW along the coast and into the Georgetown, SC area.  After that it takes it across central SC to Clemson in the far southwestern part of the upstate.  That's a significant movement toward the Euro idea of a strong southern component before the drift west.  We'll see what the Euro has to say in an hour, but at this time, the two models are only 75 miles apart in the path to the west, with the GFS being further north.  If the GFS is correct, NC gets most of the rain.  If the Euro is correct, SC and parts of NC get most of the rain.  My feeling as someone 200 miles from the ocean is that the Euro has performed extremely well on Florence and has smelled out the wrinkles better, so I'm riding that model til the end.

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The eye is coming up on the continental shelf now so that will churn up the cooler water from underneath (good) but also set up the velocity and torque in the storm surge & waves (bad) to hit the coast.

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It's gusting over 60 mph in a lot of places around Morehead City, Beaufort, Atlantoc Beach. I expect some hurricane force gusts soon. 

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2 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Eye looks to be wobbling a lot but seems to be generally moving wnw. Anyone else see this?

I can agree with this assessment. NHC still shows the movement as of the 1pm update NW at 10 mph.

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While recon shows the center fixes bending left, my educated guess is the half-a-eyewall is bouncing around a broader maxima based on microwave and will likely continue to wobble wnw-nw until late this evening.  It does appear though the slow down has begun per satellite. 

 

recon_AF302-1406A-FLORENCE.png

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Latest Euro hasn't changed.  Moves the storm SW down the SC coastline toward Charleston, then west into southern SC...much like today's UKMet

If this was a snowstorm in January, it would be north, north, north every run.

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

 

qpf_acc.us_ma (1).png

I am seriously doubting those numbers. It is calling for 24" for us and as of right now I have only had .16" and I live just southeast of NB.

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

If this was a snowstorm in January, it would be north, north, north every run.

Any way you cut it, there's going to be a local min over SE Wake county. 

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2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Any way you cut it, there's going to be a local min over SE Wake county. 

And there's no getting around that. :(

When it becomes available, someone please post a precip map for the Euro.  TIA

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From 11am to 2pm.  

Florence moved .2°N to .5°W and looks like she continues to slow down and bend left.  NHC official plot line is 34°N INLAND... Florence may not even make it to 34°N now... all the guidance to some degree show a WSW component.  Very critical downstream on effects in SC.

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

And there's no getting around that. :(

When it becomes available, someone please post a precip map for the Euro.  TIA

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018091312_114_480_220.thumb.png.303fa562ce2df32eb20f01aca7bd031d.png

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Thanks, BFF.  Looks like the Triangle area is going to end up ok.  Some decent rain showers and gusty winds, but that's about it.

GFS gives me about 1” of rain, Euro 7-10” range! Model madness! If I get 3”, I’ll call it a win! One of the models has me getting a 56 mph wind gust! That’ll bring a tree or two down!

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS gives me about 1” of rain, Euro 7-10” range! Model madness! If I get 3”, I’ll call it a win! One of the models has me getting a 56 mph wind gust! That’ll bring a tree or two down!

I noticed that too - a big difference on ne ga and upstate rainfall totals right now.  its hard to know which one to believe lol

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS gives me about 1” of rain, Euro 7-10” range! Model madness! If I get 3”, I’ll call it a win! One of the models has me getting a 56 mph wind gust! That’ll bring a tree or two down!

I know which model I'd rather have in my camp!

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12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS gives me about 1” of rain, Euro 7-10” range! Model madness! If I get 3”, I’ll call it a win! One of the models has me getting a 56 mph wind gust! That’ll bring a tree or two down!

Two things come to mind Mack. Go with the Euro, You always get the big totals, Rain or Snow!! and It's #1 in accuracy! Be safe down there...........:raining: :P

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UK and EURO both hit same areas near ILM with heaviest rainfall, GFS is a bit northeast. EURO does not have the crazy totals that the GFS and UK have. Would take some very persistent traning with heavy bands to get what the UK/GFS are implying. But that stuff is somewhat storm structure dependent.

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