SN_Lover Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Whoa!!! Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 11m11 minutes ago More Euro has 33 inches of rain forecasted with Florence, Expect those totals to be higher in those mountains, 3-4 feet of rain some places in coming 10 days This will be almost Biblical if the Euro verifies. We joked about harvey when the Euro was showing it, im not joking now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 I got 4 inches of rain a couple weeks ago from some storms training over me in the afternoon and thought the flooding from that was impressive... Can't even fathom what 3-4 feet would be like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 This has potential to blow fran away from all aspects. This will be a massive blow ala hugo and hazel on the coast/interior wind wise if projections are right, with floyd or Harvey flooding potential. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 18z GFS farther SW compared to 12z at 54.. FWIW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 While I live in TX north of Dallas now, I was in Rocky Mount, NC area for Floyd and Goldsboro for Fran. They were bad. Also, it doesn’t take a huuricane force winds to mess you up either. In Rocky Mount, we got 60ish winds from Irene but they were sustained for something like 9 straight hours. My neighborhood looked like a war zone. Just a couple of years ago Matthew flooded Rocky Mount the same way Floyd did. Floyd was suppposed to have been a 500 year flood. You guys be safe!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wow said: 18z GFS farther SW compared to 12z at 54.. FWIW Starting to cave towards the Euro!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 There's just no way we see Harvey-like flooding in this right? People keep mentioning it like it's possible. Didn't Harvey have totals in the 40-50 inch range in many spots? I don't see anything showing that right now other than maybe isolated spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Really sad. I went and ate on the island today and it was like a funeral in the restaurant. Everyone was rightfully scared. It's a sad situation all around. I know weather enthusiasts love this, but i now see it from a local perspective and it's depressing. I hope it curves out to see 7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: This has potential to blow fran away from all aspects. This will be a massive blow ala hugo and hazel on the coast/interior wind wise if projections are right, with floyd or Harvey flooding potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: This has potential to blow fran away from all aspects. This will be a massive blow ala hugo and hazel on the coast/interior wind wise if projections are right, with floyd or Harvey flooding potential. Seems they weaken it pretty quickly. My expectations of hurricane force winds have gone down quite a bit over in Greenville with the angle of landfall and rapid weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said: There's just no way we see Harvey-like flooding in this right? People keep mentioning it like it's possible. Didn't Harvey have totals in the 40-50 inch range in many spots? I don't see anything showing that right now other than maybe isolated spots. 20-30” that is shown, would be as close to biblical as most will ever see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: 20-30” that is shown, would be as close to biblical as most will ever see! You are right, would be devastating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 skeptical on these 20"-30" numbers unless doesn't move out of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 GFS coming west a bit might be a landfall should at least get Hatteras.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 18z gfs coming sw of the 12z run lets see where it goes from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: skeptical on these 20"-30" numbers unless doesn't move out of here. Remember when we didn’t believe the Harvey numbers and the models nailed it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: This has potential to blow fran away from all aspects. This will be a massive blow ala hugo and hazel on the coast/interior wind wise if projections are right, with floyd or Harvey flooding potential. This may have Hugo-like qualities as it may be pushing well inland with a more westerly than northerly path. This isn't like your usual storm hitting NC from a recurve path which keeps effects close to the coast. But unlike Hugo, this will be slowing down and could turn this into more of a flooding issue rather than the wind. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Just now, Wow said: This may have Hugo-like qualities as it may be pushing well inland with a more westerly than northerly path. This isn't like your usual storm hitting NC from a recurve path which keeps effects close to the coast. But unlike Hugo, this will be slowing down and could turn this into more of a flooding issue rather than the wind. Do you feel further SW corrections will happen on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 gfs comes in sw and slows it down again. have to think it may still be a bit too far N but it moves towards the euro for sure. big to see as it has been an obx landfall the last 6-7 runs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 gfs is back to a landfall around mhx. its looks to have took its meds again and coming in better agreement with the other model suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Do you feel further SW corrections will happen on the GFS? More likely than not but could be biased after watching Irma continue to defy model consensus and keep pushing west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wow said: This may have Hugo-like qualities as it may be pushing well inland with a more westerly than northerly path. This isn't like your usual storm hitting NC from a recurve path which keeps effects close to the coast. But unlike Hugo, this will be slowing down and could turn this into more of a flooding issue rather than the wind. I agree with this. I would only change your last phrase to, more of a flooding issue in addition to the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago More Joe Bastardi Retweeted Joe Bastardi First ideas on flooding with this were last Thur/Fri but worry was centered more in Va to Pa. In any case honing in now a bit further south, Joe Bastardi added, Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi Since Wednesday we have had this going inland over NC and then crawling into VA. Should this turn out correct, this is likely to be the worst natural disaster on record for Carolinas into VA Major hit combined with 3-4 feet of rain in some places over 3-4 day period. Show this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibby Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 What do you all think the tornado threat would be with this system? On a side note, I yalls advice and I'm flying back Wednesday evening instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 18z continues with the stall but no it has it sitting over eastern nc instead of the outerbanks. looks like the gfs is starting to fall in line with other guidance. it has a history playing catching in this time frame. If everything verifies as it stands now its going to be a wild ride for alot of nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 So we are going to need to leave for a pre-planned Disney vacation on the 19th or 20th at the latest. Do you think roads will be passable even if we have to take hours worth of detours? Obviously it's impossible to say what roads might be out and where, but generally speaking...we are behind Duke Raleigh hospital in Raleigh. Would have planned on 440-40-95. I know during Matthew I95 got flooded and closed for awhile (don't remember how long). I have only lived in this neighborhood for 3 months, so I don't know how it behaves in flood situations. There are a LOT of trees in the neighborhood, though. This is a very important trip, for 6 months I have been planning on proposing to my girlfriend and surprising her with her parents flying in from Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 The one nice thing about the latest GFS run is it pulls in really nice cool air as the storm meanders back to the SE. So if there is mass power outages, we won't swelter in the heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 23 minutes ago, NCsandhills said: So we are going to need to leave for a pre-planned Disney vacation on the 19th or 20th at the latest. Do you think roads will be passable even if we have to take hours worth of detours? Obviously it's impossible to say what roads might be out and where, but generally speaking...we are behind Duke Raleigh hospital in Raleigh. Would have planned on 440-40-95. I know during Matthew I95 got flooded and closed for awhile (don't remember how long). I have only lived in this neighborhood for 3 months, so I don't know how it behaves in flood situations. There are a LOT of trees in the neighborhood, though. This is a very important trip, for 6 months I have been planning on proposing to my girlfriend and surprising her with her parents flying in from Puerto Rico. Honestly, I think it's too early to say what roads would be like 10 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 hour ago, SN_Lover said: Really sad. I went and ate on the island today and it was like a funeral in the restaurant. Everyone was rightfully scared. It's a sad situation all around. I know weather enthusiasts love this, but i now see it from a local perspective and it's depressing. I hope it curves out to see Sorry bro, my wife and I love wrightsville beach, and this track wld ruin that beach. Tough to think about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 47 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago More Joe Bastardi Retweeted Joe Bastardi First ideas on flooding with this were last Thur/Fri but worry was centered more in Va to Pa. In any case honing in now a bit further south, Joe Bastardi added, Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi Since Wednesday we have had this going inland over NC and then crawling into VA. Should this turn out correct, this is likely to be the worst natural disaster on record for Carolinas into VA Major hit combined with 3-4 feet of rain in some places over 3-4 day period. Show this thread With Floyd in the history books this seems a little premature. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Honestly, I think it's too early to say what roads would be like 10 days from now. Yeah no doubt, I'm just really worried since the vacation is already paid for and everything. I'm hoping our neighborhood won't be completely flooded or trees blocking exits or anything...not sure if it will get that bad of course, but I guess the potential is there and this is so super stressful. The timing for events going on in my personal life is almost as bad as it gets. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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