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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Why do people drive into floods like this?

https://twitter.com/ABC7NY/status/1044665439123574784?s=20

 

Even better, try to drive through in a low vehicle. Definitely one of the advantages of driving a truck. But I also know the water depth I’m driving through in my neighborhood. (Coastal flooding prone) 

dumping again on the uws.  

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I remember being on Rockaway Turnpike (SW Nassau) after a downpour when a gas tanker truck literally sped through one of those floods in the left lane, creating a tidal wave which fully enveloped the Honda Civic I was driving as well as the car in front of me, the wave literally went over the roof of the car.

No damage thankfully, and thankfully the idiot didn’t roll over in traffic and burst into flames.

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16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Even better, try to drive through in a low vehicle. Definitely one of the advantages of driving a truck. But I also know the water depth I’m driving through in my neighborhood. (Coastal flooding prone) 

dumping again on the uws.  

Getting the heaviest downpour of the day here in SW Suffolk now.

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Raining again here....0.52” and counting. Heaviest rains should slide just to the west of me.

Today may be the darkest day of the year at my station with just 0.2 “sunshine hours” (>120 w/m2 solar radiation) recorded, I have to double check, but I’m like 95% sure it is.

Edit: Nope, March 21st was the darkest with no “sunshine hours” recorded, today is looking like a #2 or #3.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1500
< Previous MD
MD 1500 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 1500
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of NJ into Long Island and southern
   Connecticut

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252138Z - 252345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasionally weakly rotating storms are expected over the
   next few hours. Overall severe threat is very low.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, currently anchored along a warm
   front, have occasionally showed transient, weak low to mid-level
   rotation across portions of central/eastern New Jersey into the NYC
   area and far southern Connecticut. Though lapse rates are quite poor
   throughout the troposphere (i.e 5-5.5 C/km), sfc-850 mb moisture is
   quite deep, contributing to MLCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg along/south of
   the front. While effective bulk shear values are rather modest given
   the marginally unstable atmosphere (30-40 knots across the
   discussion area), favorable low-level directional shear remains in
   place, with effective SRH values exceeding 250 m2/s2 over Long
   Island, with nearly 350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH noted by recent KOKX WSR-88D
   VWP data. Low-level flow is slightly more veered closer to PHL, with
   latest KDIX VWP data suggesting both 0-3km and 0-1km SRH exceeding
   150 m2/s2. 

   The favorable low-level shear, combined with the moist/marginally
   buoyant airmass, may promote semi-discrete storms in the area to
   continue weakly rotating on an occasional basis, particularly across
   portions of Long Island and southern Connnecticut, where storms may
   more favorably traverse the warm front and ingest available
   low-level streamwise vorticity. Still, given the marginally buoyant
   airmass and expected lackluster potential for stronger rotation, the
   severe threat appears quite low.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/25/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI..
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