Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    19,021
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

Recommended Posts

36 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It sure doesn't seem like it has been warm. The lack of sun for 3 weeks straight will do that though... These warm minimums are killing me because they don't really tell the whole story, stats are what you make of them I guess.

The warm minimums are the big temperature story this month. Several stations across the wider region  are in the +8 to +12 range so far. I can't remember another month that the minimum departure was so much higher than the maximum. But anything is possible in this new 2010's climate regime.

1992337647_Screenshot2018-09-28at8_50_56AM.png.65270cc732c191f98508304b2d4f4937.png

1614267712_Screenshot2018-09-28at8_50.32AM08-53-00-799.png.4edf9e91fadc6a90e67af529e2cf57fe.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

At noon, the temperature at Central Park stood at 57°. Nevertheless, it is now extremely likely that 2018 will become the 35th September on record to have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above. It is also extremely likely to become the 6th such September for the period beginning in 2010.

Through 9/27, New York City had a mean temperature of 71.6°. There were 16 prior cases when September had a mean temperature of 71.6° or above through the 27th. In all those prior cases, September had a mean temperature at or above 70.0°. Applying sensitivity analysis to the latest guidance for the remainder of the month, there was an implied 98% probability of such an outcome.

In addition, 2018 will conclude September without having had any low temperatures below 50° in the period beginning July 1. In the 1869-2017 period, 31% of years have seen no such low temperatures through September. The 9/28 0z EPS suggests that New York City may not have any minimum temperatures below 50° through October 10.

By October 5, only 15% of years had yet to have any minimum temperatures below 50°. Nearly one-third of those years occurred 2000 or later.

By October 10, only 7% of years had yet to have any minimum temperatures below 50°. 40% of those years occurred 2000 or later.

The first half of October still looks to be drier than normal with systems producing only small amounts of precipitation. Of course, QPF forecasts from the guidance can be thrown off by a single large system that skews amounts, so such forecasts should be taken with a lot of caution.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today is an example of normal is the new cool. It was one of the few days this month with near normal low temperatures for the date. So it actually felt cool compared to the recent record warm minimum pattern.

NYC.....low of 58....normal...56

ISP......low of 51....normal...52

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...